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Nate Duffett's MLB betting picks for 6/11/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Tuesday, June 11th edition of Rotoballer's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 16 game slate.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Roto_Nate if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Tuesday, June 11th. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!
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New York Mets @ New York Yankees (-175) **Second Game of Doubleheader**
O/U: 9
The Yankees and Mets haven't been scoring too many runs over their past ten games, with the Mets hitting the over only three times, and the Yankees hitting it in four. In a usually hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, this season has been the complete opposite, with the over hitting only 11 times in 33 games.
Jason Vargas has been lights out for the Mets, allowing eight runs over his last seven starts, with his best performance coming last game on a complete game shutout against the Giants. James Paxton has been everything the Yankees thought he would be, recording a 3.11 ERA over his nine starts. He has also pitched a scoreless outing in three of his last six starts.
My Pick: Under 9
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians (-118)
O/U: 8.5
The Reds are 2-8 on overs in their past ten games and 11-22-1 on hitting overs on the road. The Indians have been having one of their worst offensive seasons that I can remember, leading them to only hitting the over 28 times in 65 games.
With a pitching matchup of Luis Castillo versus Trevor Bauer, I can't see these two below-average offenses being able to generate many runs. Castillo enters this game with a 2.26 ERA, allowing two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. It has been more of an up and down season for Bauer but despite the inconsistencies, he still has a 3.93 ERA and has performed well against weak offenses like the Reds.
My Pick: Under 8.5
Toronto Blue Jays (-117) @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 9
I will be doing everything in my power to avoid watching when these two terrible teams face off tonight, but that doesn't mean I won't be finding some betting value. The Orioles come in as the underdog in this matchup, but I'm not sure if it is warranted. Over the last ten games, the Blue Jays are 2-8, while the Orioles are 3-7. On the road, the Blue Jays have been terrible with an 11-20 record, while the Orioles have been even worse with an 8-23 record at home. In any other matchup, these stats would make either team an automatic fade, but when playing each other the numbers cancel each other out.
The stat I am interested in is that John Means has been much better at home than on the road, with a 1.53 ERA. Trent Thornton has a 3.21 ERA on the road but has been struggling recently, allowing ten runs over his last three starts. This makes me lean toward the Orioles at these odds, while also wanting the under on the total. The Orioles are 2-8 over their last ten games in hitting the over, while the Blue Jays are 4-5-1. With Edwin Jackson and David Hess on tap for Wednesday's game, I can see this game being the low-scoring affair before the offenses explode tomorrow night.
My Pick: Orioles (+107), Under 9
Washington Nationals (-195) @ Chicago White Sox
O/U: 9.5
In my opinion, it is zero fun betting the under, so I couldn't go a full article without giving you guys an over. The White Sox send Manny Banuelos to the mound tonight with his 7.00 ERA at home, allowing 17 runs at Guaranteed Rate Field over his last three starts. Patrick Corbin has been a much better pitcher for the Nationals, but he has a 5.02 ERA on the road this season. On a side note, home plate umpire Mark Ripperger has seen the over hit in eight of his thirteen assignments behind the plate.
The Nationals are the fifth-best team in the majors against left-handed pitching with a .354 wOBA. The White Sox aren't as good against lefties, with only a .300 wOBA, but my feeling is they might not need to score many runs to assist the Nationals in hitting the over. I would have some interest in the over on the Nationals team total of 5.5. In three matchups this season, the Nationals have exceeded 5.5 runs against the White Sox, and all three of those games have also gone over 9.5.
My Pick: Over 9.5
