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Nick Mariano's Baller Ranks is a weekly fantasy baseball rankings list for the top 101 starting pitchers. He ranks and analyzes updated pitcher values for Week 2.
Another week of matchups is upon us, so that means it's once again time for my weekly top-101 SP Baller Ranks breakdown. RotoBallers can find my thoughts on key movers and then the top-101 in a table with tiers, ranks, earned value via Fangraphs, and even more notes! We now ride with the second 2022 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
This google sheet accompanies the table below and adds relevant 5x5 stats, K%, BB%, BABIP, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, ERA-FIP, and CSW% from 2022. Do note that I leave off injured players, but for now, I will include them at the bottom with a rank of where they'd appear when healthy. I highly encourage you to click the link. CLICK IT!
As is tradition, these ranks are geared towards traditional 5x5 leagues and focus on healthy players. If 25% of the board is on the IL, then that doesn't help anyone. And now we head into this week's top-101 SP!
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Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 2
NOTES
-More injuries mean others creep their way onto the bottom of our ranks here. I’ll keep the injured tier going as a reference rather than only doing it every so often.
-Logan Webb looks incredible through two turns, picking up right where his stretch run and postseason dominance left off. I wish I had kept my confidence in him going throughout the draft season but so many were cool on his prospects that I relented a bit later in April. Still, his sinker is a masterpiece pitch and San Francisco plays efficient defense behind him.
-Zack Wheeler was expected to show some rust but that doesn’t offer much by way of comfort early on. Keep holding and hope his arm livens up without a need for the IL.
-Carlos Rodon is showing no fear out of the gate, attacking hitters often and putting up a near-50% K rate in the process. Few questioned his talent, as we simply need to pray for good health. The same goes for Justin Verlander (eight shutout IP) and Clayton Kershaw (seven perfect IP).
-Jose Berrios had nothing going in and also horrid luck in start No. 1, as he claimed to be overthrowing the ball and therefore losing command on the breaking pitches in particular. So then he backed off a bit in start No. 2, sitting closer to 93 mph rather than 95 (but still able to hit 96 when needed). It was encouraging to see him pitching rather than throwing, but others are doing so well that he slides until further notice. At least his second start showed life rather than the Trevor Rogers “special” we were treated to on Saturday.
-Eduardo Rodriguez will be okay in 2022, but poor weather and shaky defense undid his effort against his former team last week. Only two of the seven runs allowed were earned as the rain poured. Unfortunately, he draws the Yankees next for a bounceback bid. While their bats have been quiet, the order is still a potent one.
-Alex Cobb had a .444 BABIP in his first start of 2022 but 10 strikeouts in five innings helped him towards the victory. Imagine that improved velo working with normal luck in play? I’m ready.
-Matt Brash and Jesus Luzardo both made good on preseason hype and need to be rostered in case the momentum doesn’t relent. We’ll have to see how well Brash can command his movement and if the fastball can remain viable next to them, but Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ graded him at the top of the MLB leaderboard. Respect. Meanwhile, Luzardo toyed with the Halos and froze Shohei Ohtani multiple times. They aren’t must-starts yet, but these ceilings don’t present often.
-Tylor Megill and Carlos Carrasco are making noise in New York. Megill had home-run problems last season (1.91 HR/9) but showed promise otherwise, which seems to be blooming in 2022. Carrasco looks healthy after multiple years of battling, as his arsenal danced over Arizona bats. With a 31.8% CSW rate over two starts, there’s enough here to elevate him even if we don’t get prime Cookie back.
-Nestor Cortes displayed all of his arm angles and deception on Sunday, weaving an immaculate inning into his 12-strikeout gem against Baltimore. Unfortunately, the Yankees offered zero offensive support. But games against Toronto and Baltimore have yielded 17 strikeouts against only one walk in just 9 ⅓ IP. Be still, my beating heart.
-Kyle Wright is another breakout candidate, especially with Atlanta’s powerful offense and stellar bullpen in his sails. Wright has a 15/1 K/BB through 11 frames and looks extremely confident mixing in that changeup. This is why you churn early. You might hit these starts, and these starts may turn into “these years”. Maybe he could remind Huascar Ynoa to pitch well?
-Merrill Kelly, Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, and Josiah Gray all sit around 75 right now but they could be top-50 arms. Perhaps I’d consider incorporating a “tier ceiling/tier floor” sort of volatility rating so you could get a sense of how high I believe they could fly. Targeting upside is important!
-Roansy Contreras makes the cut even if I’m cheating by proactively placing him before he enters the rotation. He got the win on April 14 thanks to three scoreless innings of relief, where he showed off five strikeouts while scattering one hit and one walk. The 22-year-old can work the zone well with his upper-90s fastball while dropping in curves to switch up the look. He also loves to lean on a power slider that he drills right-handed bats with, so get ready!
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | EV | $ | $PV | Trend | Notes |
| 0 | 1 | Corbin Burnes | 1 | $1.4 | 43.0 | 43.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Incredible 2nd start, hope no one did anything rash |
| 0 | 1 | Gerrit Cole | 2 | -$0.8 | 42.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Got Vladdy'd, it happens. HR remain the poison |
| 1 | 1 | Max Scherzer | 3 | $1.5 | 41.0 | 38.5 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| -1 | 1 | Brandon Woodruff | 4 | $0.5 | 38.5 | 41.0 | -2.5 ▼ | |
| 0 | 2 | Walker Buehler | 5 | $1.0 | 38.0 | 38.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Only 9/5 K/BB from COL & CIN is suboptimal |
| 7 | 2 | Logan Webb | 6 | $3.7 | 35.0 | 23.5 | 11.5 ▲ | Elite control, that sinker is something else |
| -1 | 2 | Julio Urias | 7 | $0.0 | 34.0 | 35.0 | -1.0 ▼ | Playing down decreased velo, break; hold your breath |
| 0 | 2 | Freddy Peralta | 8 | -$0.3 | 33.5 | 33.5 | 0.0 ▬ | I'll try to buy low if available, near .500 BABIP! |
| -2 | 2 | Zack Wheeler | 9 | -$0.7 | 27.5 | 34.0 | -6.5 ▼ | |
| -1 | 2 | Robbie Ray | 10 | -$2.2 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 3 | Shane Bieber | 11 | $2.8 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Velo, spin rates still down; hope it keeps trending up |
| -1 | 3 | Sandy Alcantara | 12 | $0.3 | 27.0 | 27.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 1 | 3 | Dylan Cease | 13 | $4.2 | 24.5 | 23.0 | 1.5 ▲ | Huge strikeouts coming as advertised, I'm excited |
| 1 | 3 | Joe Musgrove | 14 | $3.9 | 23.0 | 21.0 | 2.0 ▲ | 14/0 K/BB early on, gotta love seeing that to start |
| 2 | 3 | Alek Manoah | 15 | $1.2 | 21.0 | 19.5 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 4 | 4 | Carlos Rodon | 16 | $5.4 | 21.0 | 19.0 | 2.0 ▲ | If health holds, velo stays up thru full season...look out |
| -5 | 4 | Max Fried | 17 | $3.6 | 21.0 | 25.5 | -4.5 ▼ | Low walks is good, that stubborn .395 BABIP will settle |
| 0 | 4 | Charlie Morton | 18 | $0.6 | 19.5 | 19.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 0 | 4 | Justin Verlander | 19 | $2.9 | 19.5 | 19.0 | 0.5 ▲ | Elite 8 IP shutout frames in 2nd start, vintage JV |
| 8 | 4 | Clayton Kershaw | 20 | $4.9 | 19.0 | 12.5 | 6.5 ▲ | The what-if perfecto stinks but prime Kersh is here |
| 0 | 4 | Yu Darvish | 21 | -$1.1 | 17.0 | 18.0 | -1.0 ▼ | Good 1st game, no command in 2nd, sharp again in 3rd |
| -6 | 4 | Jose Berrios | 22 | -$2.7 | 17.0 | 20.0 | -3.0 ▼ | Another slow-starter, but spring was bad too. Hodl |
| -1 | 4 | Kevin Gausman | 23 | $5.3 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 4 | Aaron Nola | 24 | -$1.3 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 5 | Frankie Montas | 25 | $1.9 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 5 | Shane McClanahan | 26 | $1.5 | 16.0 | 15.5 | 0.5 ▲ | Look at that 38.6% CSW rate, wait as IP stamina builds |
| 2 | 5 | Nathan Eovaldi | 27 | -$1.1 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| -3 | 5 | Trevor Rogers | 28 | $0.6 | 12.5 | 17.0 | -4.5 ▼ | Regularly missing spots, near even K/BB early |
| 1 | 5 | Chris Bassitt | 29 | $2.4 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 ▬ | 2 starts, 2 wins, strong metrics, feeling good |
| 1 | 5 | Shohei Ohtani | 30 | $2.1 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 5 | Sean Manaea | 31 | $4.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Allowed a hit in 2nd start, guess the party's over |
| 1 | 5 | Pablo Lopez | 32 | $2.4 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Don't sweat K's, CSW strong thru 2 starts. Stay healthy! |
| 1 | 5 | Michael Kopech | 33 | $2.3 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Stronger 2nd start, expected w/ short spring |
| 5 | 5 | Logan Gilbert | 34 | $2.5 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 1 | 5 | Framber Valdez | 35 | $1.5 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -9 | 5 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 36 | $0.2 | 9.0 | 13.0 | -4.0 ▼ | Horrid weather in 2nd start, needs to attack more |
| 3 | 5 | Alex Cobb | 37 | $2.3 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 0.5 ▲ | Increased velo held, 10 strikeouts in 5 IP is delightful |
| -1 | 6 | Tyler Mahle | 38 | $2.7 | 8.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 1 | 6 | Zac Gallen | 40 | $1.1 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 ▲ | 43-of-66 pitches for strikes in 1st outing, healthy |
| 1 | 6 | Luis Garcia | 41 | $0.7 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 1 | 6 | Patrick Sandoval | 42 | $1.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 6 | Jordan Montgomery | 43 | $1.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 29 | 6 | Jesus Luzardo | 44 | $3.7 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 ▲ | Dazzled with 12-K MIA debut, spring momentum held |
| -1 | 6 | Ian Anderson | 39 | $0.1 | 8.0 | 8.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 13 | 7 | Tylor Megill | 45 | $4.2 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 ▲ | Cylor yet to allow a run, issue a walk. Great park. |
| -1 | 7 | Adam Wainwright | 46 | $2.4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 22 | 7 | Carlos Carrasco | 47 | $2.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 ▲ | 2 good outings to begin '22, mechanics look smooth |
| -2 | 7 | Joe Ryan | 48 | $0.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 7 | Tanner Houck | 49 | $0.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Command must step up, keep faith; can't pitch in TOR |
| -1 | 7 | Alex Wood | 50 | -$0.1 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 10 | 7 | Nestor Cortes | 51 | $1.8 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 ▲ | Casual immaculate inning, 12 strikeouts! |
| 15 | 7 | Matt Brash | 52 | $0.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 ▲ | Elite stuff if he can consistently command it |
| -2 | 7 | Jose Urquidy | 53 | $0.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 8 | Noah Syndergaard | 54 | $2.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 ▬ | sub-3.00 FIP, the K's should pick up |
| -1 | 8 | Tarik Skubal | 55 | $3.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 8 | Triston McKenzie | 56 | $1.7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 8 | Luis Severino | 57 | $1.4 | 4.5 | N/A | N/A | Forgot him last week! How long will it take to stretch |
| 13 | 8 | Hunter Greene | 58 | $0.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 ▲ | Handled Dodgers well, regularly pumping 100+ |
| -9 | 8 | Marcus Stroman | 59 | -$0.7 | 4.0 | 5.5 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| 0 | 9 | Yusei Kikuchi | 60 | -$0.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 38 | 9 | Kyle Wright | 61 | $4.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 ▲ | 2022 breakout candidate w/ ATL 'pen supporting him |
| -3 | 9 | Ranger Suarez | 62 | $0.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -1 | 9 | Anthony DeSclafani | 63 | $2.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 9 | Kyle Hendricks | 64 | $0.1 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 9 | German Marquez | 65 | $2.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 10 | Aaron Civale | 66 | $0.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -10 | 10 | Reid Detmers | 67 | -$0.6 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| -16 | 10 | Huascar Ynoa | 68 | -$0.6 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -2.0 ▼ | Troubling 1st start, both poor location & bad luck |
| -3 | 10 | Tony Gonsolin | 69 | $1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 10 | Jameson Taillon | 70 | $0.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -3 | 10 | Cal Quantrill | 71 | $1.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 10 | Nick Lodolo | 72 | -$1.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Usual stellar command nowhere to be found in debut |
| 1 | 10 | Steven Matz | 73 | $1.8 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 7 | 10 | Merrill Kelly | 74 | $2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 ▲ | Secondaries keep thrilling, stayed hot vs. HOU |
| 23 | 10 | Andrew Heaney | 75 | $1.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 ▲ | New, sharp sweeping slider looked fantastic |
| 18 | 10 | Kyle Gibson | 76 | $3.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 0 | 10 | Josiah Gray | 77 | $0.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -3 | 11 | Zach Eflin | 78 | $1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -3 | 11 | Bailey Ober | 79 | -$0.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 11 | Nick Martinez | 80 | -$1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Change, curve are solid but fastball getting beaten |
| -1 | 11 | Drew Rasmussen | 81 | -$0.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 11 | Marco Gonzales | 82 | -$1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Awful in 1st start, stellar in 2nd; expect middle ground |
| 0 | 12 | Mitch Keller | 83 | $0.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Velocity doesn't maketh a pitcher |
| 1 | 12 | Zach Plesac | 84 | $0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 12 | Eric Lauer | 85 | -$0.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 12 | Michael Lorenzen | 86 | $1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Six-pitch arsenal was dialed in, HOU next is good test |
| 1 | 12 | Zack Greinke | 87 | $1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 12 | Aaron Ashby | 88 | $0.5 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | Starting Sunday, can he edge into regular rotation? |
| N/A | 12 | Roansy Contreras | 89 | $0.5 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | Stretching out in bullpen, hope he breaks in soon |
| 0 | 12 | Patrick Corbin | 90 | $0.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 12 | Corey Kluber | 91 | $1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -3 | 12 | Austin Gomber | 92 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 12 | Elieser Hernandez | 93 | -$1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 12 | Michael Pineda | 94 | N/A | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Nearly ready for 2022 debut, needed with injuries |
| 1 | 12 | Chris Flexen | 95 | $0.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 12 | Nick Pivetta | 96 | -$1.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 12 | Paul Blackburn | 97 | $3.5 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | Increased velo, plus command; worth a deep add |
| 2 | 12 | Dane Dunning | 98 | -$0.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 12 | Brad Keller | 99 | $1.9 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| N/A | 12 | Justin Steele | 100 | $2.3 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| N/A | 12 | Miles Mikolas | 101 | $2.6 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| INJ | Jacob deGrom | 1 | #N/A | Hope for July, be pleasantly surprised if earlier | ||||
| INJ | Lucas Giolito | 10 | $1.5 | Lower ab strain, I'd wager 3 weeks | ||||
| INJ | Chris Sale | 15 | #N/A | Will feel better about any timelines when throwing | ||||
| INJ | Lance Lynn | 25 | #N/A | 4-6 weeks then built back up, so June? | ||||
| INJ | Jack Flaherty | 30 | #N/A | Aiming for May, monitor his throwing program | ||||
| INJ | Luis Castillo | 35 | #N/A | Mid/late April if we're lucky, hate shoulder woes | ||||
| INJ | Sonny Gray | 35 | -$0.5 | Right hamstring strain | ||||
| INJ | Lance McCullers Jr. | 35 | #N/A | Also hate forearms, but nearing throwing here | ||||
| INJ | Blake Snell | 40 | #N/A | Likely IL incoming w/ adductor issue, Gore time? | ||||
| INJ | Shane Baz | 50 | #N/A | He'll need to ramp up at AAA, timeline still unclear | ||||
| INJ | John Means | 50 | $2.7 | Left elbow strain, seeking 2nd opinion. Not good. | ||||
| INJ | Mike Clevinger | 55 | N/A | Right knee sprain but elbow is OK, that matters | ||||
| INJ | Stephen Strasburg | 60 | #N/A | Mid-May is target, building up after '21 TOS surgery | ||||
| INJ | Jon Gray | 65 | $0.9 | Dang blisters, I liked his stuff before exiting | ||||
| INJ | Hyun Jin Ryu | 75 | -$0.7 | Low effectiveness yields IL for left forearm soreness | ||||
| INJ | Luis Patino | 80 | $0.1 | Obliques are awfully rude to open 2022 | ||||
| INJ | Casey Mize | 80 | $0.8 | Right elbow sprain | ||||
| INJ | Taijuan Walker | 85 | $1.1 | Right shoulder bursitis, ugh |
**REMEMBER THE SEASON HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN AND PITCHERS GOT A RAW DEAL WITH THE ABRUPT LOCKOUT END AND SHORTENED SPRING.
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