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Mark McWhirter gives his top 10 busts and players to avoid at RB or WR in Week 3 of the 2020 NFL fantasy football season.
Welcome back RotoBallers. It's hard to believe that Week 3 is already here! Injuries have taken a toll on just about every fantasy football manager out there, and making the right start/sit decisions is more critical than ever.
Our team is churning out lots of incredible weekly articles and analysis to help you make the best waiver wire pickups, and to analyze the weekly fantasy football matchups. As part of that, I'm here to talk about players that may not live up to expectations and may hurt your chances of winning this week.
With that being said, below are my top ten fantasy football busts for Week 3. Good luck RotoBallers!
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Todd Gurley II vs. Chicago Bears
Todd Gurley is the RB31 after two weeks, having finished as the RB19 in Week 1 and the RB46 in Week 2. The Bears, meanwhile, gave up only 16.4 fantasy points to running backs against the Giants last week and rate as the 13th-toughest defense against fantasy running backs so far this season. The fact that Gurley accumulated only one target last week, in a game in which 79 points were scored, is telling as to his involvement in the passing game.
Gurley appears touchdown-dependent in 2020. Ito Smith received two carries inside the ten-yard line last week while Gurley did not receive any such carries. Until Gurley gets more involved around the goal-line and/or in the passing game, it is going to be hard to trust him in fantasy lineups, especially in difficult matchups.
Sony Michel vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Consider this your cue to send Sony Michel to your waiver wire. Through two weeks, Michel has only 17 touches and no receptions. Cam Newton has four times as many rushing scores as Michel and he is splitting time nearly evenly with Rex Burkhead. The matchup seems great on paper, as the Raiders have been extremely friendly to fantasy running backs, ranking as the third-easiest matchup through two weeks.
Nonetheless, Michel should not be started after finishing as the RB72 last week in Seattle. When the Patriots approach the goal-line, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has dialed up running plays specifically for Cam. Newton is poised to lead this team in rushing this year, making Michel’s floor and ceiling about as low as it gets for a “starting” running back.
T.J. Hockenson vs. Arizona Cardinals
T.J. Hockenson’s NFL debut came against the Arizona Cardinals. That game ended with a line of 6 receptions, 131 receiving yards, and a touchdown. The Cardinals were the friendliest team in the league to opposing tight ends last season, however, and that trend has not repeated so far in 2020. In fact, the Cardinals’ defense ranks tenth against tight ends after two weeks. The Cardinals held a hobbled George Kittle to a meager 44 yards in Week 1 and Logan Thomas managed only 26 yards on nine targets in Week 2.
The defense should only improve as first-rounder Isaiah Simmons gets more accustomed to the NFL. Hockenson finished as the TE4 in Week 1, doubling down on his status as a Week 1 hero, but followed that up with a TE19 performance last week. Kenny Golladay should return to the Lions’ offense this week, meaning fewer targets headed Hockenson’s way. Fantasy managers should patiently allow Hockenson to prove he is capable of producing alongside Golladay before inserting him into lineups.
Tom Brady vs. Denver Broncos
Tom Brady has started out slowly with his new team, as he sits as the QB21 through two weeks. Brady managed only 9.7 fantasy points last week, good enough for a QB30 performance. Concerningly, he did so against a Carolina Panthers Defense that looks dreadful on paper. The Broncos are missing Drew Lock and Courtland Sutton, as well as Von Miller, and are unlikely to force the Bucs into a pass-happy game script. The Broncos are middle-of-the-pack against fantasy quarterback thus far but have yet to allow a performance better than QB15.
The ceiling, therefore, appears limited for Brady this week. The Bucs saw Leonard Fournette break out last week and should be comfortable putting the ball in the hands of him and Ronald Jones II if they get out to a lead against the 0-2 Broncos. There will be better days ahead of Brady as he adjusts to his new home, but this is not the matchup to force him into fantasy lineups.
Mike Davis vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Davis was a hot waiver wire add this week after news broke of Christian McCaffrey’s looming multi-week absence. Unfortunately for those who bid heavily on the Panthers’ presumed starter, he gets a brutal matchup right off the hop. The Chargers have allowed only 12.1 fantasy points to opposing runners, good enough for third in the NFL. Los Angeles finished 2nd against rushers in Week 1 and 7th against rushers in Week 2. Those performances did not come against slouches either, as the Chargers have faced the likes of Joe Mixon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire thus far.
There are rumors that the versatile Curtis Samuel may take on a Cordarrelle Patterson-type role in McCaffrey’s absence, and the team is unlikely to allow Davis to shoulder the entire load in any event. The last time Davis handled more than seven carries in a game was Week 10 of the 2018 season. Davis did catch eight passes last week, but the Chargers have allowed only 5.6 yards per reception to running backs this year. Davis should prove a valuable stopgap for those hurting at the running back position, but this is a matchup to avoid if possible.
Chris Herndon vs. Indianapolis Colts
The New York Jets are down Le’Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, and Denzel Mims, so logic would dictate that Chris Herndon should be in line for a massive target total this week. The same was true last week, however, and Herndon could still only muster a cringeworthy line of one reception for five yards on four targets. The Jets’ offense is completely broken, as the “brilliant mind” of Adam Gase has led this team to only three total offensive touchdowns.
The Colts currently rank as the toughest matchup for tight ends, although they have not faced any top-tier options at the position. Still, the Colts have allowed only 1.3 fantasy points per game, which is somehow still above what Herndon produced last week. Do not subject yourself to starting any player wearing a Jets’ uniform.
Emmanuel Sanders vs. Green Bay Packers
Emmanuel Sanders was expected to be a dependable starter for fantasy managers after Michael Thomas was lost to injury. That proved to not be the case in the one game that Thomas has missed. Sanders was vastly outplayed by Tre’Quan Smith and caught only one pass on three targets. Sanders was actually sixth in receptions and fourth in targets for the Saints in Week 2. The Green Bay Packers have been friendly to wide receivers, rating as the ninth-easiest matchup for the position. Nonetheless, Sanders cannot be started this week.
It is unclear if Pro Football Focus’s top-rated cornerback, Jaire Alexander, will stick mostly on Sanders or mostly on Smith. It is probable that Sanders avoids Alexander at times by moving to the slot, but he faces heavy competition for underneath targets from the likes of Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook. Drew Brees appeared lost without Michael Thomas in the Saints’ upset loss to the Raiders and Sanders is clearly not an integral part of the offense at this point. Not only should Sanders be taken out of starting lineups, but he should be sent to waiver wires in 12-team and shallower leagues.
Robby Anderson vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers rank ninth against fantasy receivers and that includes a matchup against the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs. Robby Anderson has gotten off to a fantastic start in Carolina and has continued to show what talented players can do when they escape the clutches of Adam Gase. However, facing a team that rosters cornerbacks such as Casey Hayward, Chris Harris Jr., and Desmond King is not at all exciting. No matter who Anderson lines up against, he is in for tight coverage. Targets have been split pretty evenly between Anderson and D.J. Moore to this point but expect Moore to ultimately lead this team in target share.
The Chargers held first overall pick Joe Burrow to 193 passing yards and no touchdowns to open the season and followed that up by holding the Chiefs to only nine points through the first three quarters of last week’s game. The Chargers have suffered unfortunate injuries to key defensive pieces, such as Derwin James Jr., but this is still a defense capable of putting the clamps on a passing game. Anderson’s elite speed means he only needs one big play in order to pay off for fantasy managers, but chasing that play is risky in this difficult matchup.
Will Fuller V vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Will Fuller V mysteriously vanished last week and did not receive a single target. He was seen stretching on the sideline but is not listed on the injury report for this week, meaning whatever is ailing him is not considered serious. Unfortunately, one of the toughest defenses in the NFL awaits him in the Pittsburgh Steelers. The 0-2 Texans have not found their rhythm in the post-DeAndre Hopkins world. Brandin Cooks got more involved last week, receiving eight targets, and has re-opened the debate about who the “number one” receiving option is in Houston.
The Steelers have allowed the seventh-fewest points after two weeks and do not appear to be a get-right spot for this struggling offense. Like Robby Anderson, Fuller needs only one big play to be worth starting. Unfortunately, he also needs only one play to limp off to the sideline and burn fantasy managers with another early injury-caused exit. After his disappearing act last week, it would be unwise for GMs to insert the oft-injured wideout into lineups versus a ferocious Steelers’ defense.
N'Keal Harry vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have been up and down versus wideouts this season, allowing the ninth-most points to wide receivers in Week 1 but finishing fourth against the position in last week’s matchup with the Saints. The absence of Michael Thomas obviously contributed to that, but the 2-0 Raiders have outplayed expectations early on. N’Keal Harry saw twelve targets last week and finished as the WR27 after finishing as the WR74 in Week 1. Patriots’ quarterback Cam Newton is playing at an MVP-level so far and looks to have newfound accuracy to go along with noticeable velocity.
Although the Raiders have started hot, the Patriots are still heavy favorites to win this game as they return to Foxborough after traveling to Seattle last week. Should the favorites come out on top, it could lead to the type of low-volume passing attack we saw from the Patriots in Week 1, as opposed to the pass-heavy offense we witnessed in last week’s loss. Cam threw the ball 44 times last week after throwing only 19 times in the Patriots’ season-opening victory over the Dolphins. Assuming this week’s output falls somewhere in the middle, Harry is best viewed as a WR4.
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