RADIO
Mark Kieffer's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for May 12th, 2022 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, and stacks.
This article is my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Thursday, May 12th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
Holiday Special! Save 50% on any Premium Pass using discount code THANKS. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESS
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/12/22
We have a four-game slate tonight. We have games starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, 7:30 p.m. Eastern, 9:30 p.m. Eastern, and 10:00 p.m. Eastern. The last few weeks have been tougher with anticipating who will play or not, whether particular players will return from an injury, etc. Playoff hockey is a lot more simple to anticipate. Typically teams roll with their top goalie. The only way a guy is not playing, in general, is if they are significantly injured. There aren't going to be random scratches in the playoffs you won't expect. Lastly, scoring is often lower with games being tighter, although we haven't always seen that here in the first round. Still, for cash games, we are going to want to target those players that can fill the stat sheet across the board.
Playoff Series Context
Here is how the series today stand:
CAR @ BOS || CAR is up 3-2
TOR @ TAM || TOR is up 3-2
MIN @ STL || STL is up 3-2
EDM @ LA || LA is up 3-2
All of these series could end tonight, or the team that is down could extend this to a Game 7. Playoff hockey is so intense; this should be fun to watch tonight as closing a team out is very difficult to do. Based on the Vegas odds, Boston, Tampa Bay, and Edmonton are expected to force a Game 7 while Minnesota and Saint Louis is a coin flip. The largest favorite is Edmonton at (-143).
NHL DFS Goalies
Mike Smith - DK $8.5K || FD $7.9K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
Edmonton is the strongest favorite on the slate given they are the only road favorite on the slate. Smith has had three straight games of over 35 saves (some into the 40s). He hasn't necessarily been great during the playoffs but from a fantasy perspective, he has been scoring points. He is my choice for cash games, especially on FanDuel
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Vasilevskiy (DK $8.2K || FD $8.3K), Swayman (DK $8.1K || FD $7.6K), Binnington (DK $8.0K || FD $8.4K). If playing in a GPP, arguments can be made for Raanta, Fluery, Campbell, and Quick for leverage on the field. They just have been too inconsistent to recommend for a cash game.
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Connor McDavid- DK $8.7K || FD $10.1K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
Connor McDavid has been pretty solid these playoffs scoring two goals and seven assists with 15 shots on goal in the five games played this far. With Edmonton needing a win here, he is my top spend-up cash option at Center tonight.
Ryan O'Reilly - DK $4.6K || FD $6.0K
Opponent - Minnesota Wild
O'Reilly continues to play so well and remains so cheap! He has four goals, three assists, and 18 shots on goal in five games played in this series so far! He has more goals and more shots on goal than Connor McDavid yet remains a value play! Not only that but his four goals have come one in four of the five games including the last three.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Matthews (DK $9.3K || FD $10.2K), Draisaitl (DK $7.6K || FD $10.0K), Stamkos (DK $6.7K || FD $8.1K - Winger on FD), Bergeron (DK $7.4K || FD $7.7K), Kopitar (DK $5.0K || FD $5.8K), Hartman (DK $4.9K || FD $5.9K), Danault (DK $4.1K || FD $5.5K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully score.
Kirill Kaprizov- DK $8.1K || FD $9.4K
Opponent - Saint Louis Blues
There are several nice spend-up options on this slate. Kaprizov has scored double-digit fantasy points in each of the playoff games including showing off some upside in Game 2 and Game 5 having scored a hattrick and two goals in those respective games. For the series, he has seven goals, one assist, and 25 shots on goal in the five games. There are several good places to go up top but Kaprizov is my favorite.
David Perron- DK $5.5K || FD $6.3K
Opponent - Saint Louis Blues
David Perron has been scoring quite a bit of fantasy points and even flashing some upside in this series. He has five goals and two assists in this series. His point scoring has not been spread out evenly, but his shots on goal have been with 7, 4, 6, 3, and 6 shots on goal this series. Those shots on goal give him a nice floor and when he scores two goals as he did on Sunday or a hattrick like he did in Game 1, then he has more of a ceiling game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Marner (DK $7.7K || FD $8.8K), Pastrnak (DK $7.5K || FD $8.6K), Kucherov (DK $7.4K || FD $9.6K), Marchand (DK $7.3K || FD $8.3K), Kane (DK $6.9K || FD $6.8K), Kempe (DK $5.3K || FD $6.2K), Kyrou (DK $4.7K || FD $6.5K), Moore (DK $4.2K || FD $4.9K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Evan Bouchard - DK $5.0K || FD $4.5K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
Evan Bouchard was a good cash play in a vacuum but that improves with Nurse suspended for Game 6. He should get increased ice time, which is one of the biggest factors to consider when rostering a defenseman, and he isn't priced up for it on either site.
Justin Faulk - DK $4.6K || FD $5.0K
Opponent - Minnesota Wild
Faulk has not had as good of a series as I was hoping but he has scored double-digit fantasy points in each of his last two games. He has four assists and 14 shots on goal in five games this series.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Hedman (DK $7.1K || FD $7.4K - GPP), DeAngelo (DK $5.5K || FD $6.0K - GPP), Rielly (DK $5.3K || FD $5.8K), McAvoy (DK $4.8K || FD $5.5K), Slavin (DK $4.7K || FD $5.1K), Parayko (DK $4.4K || FD $4.4K), Durzi (DK $4.2K || FD $4.7K), Edler (DK $3.8K || FD $4.1K), Roy (DK $3.5K || FD $4.4K), McDonagh (DK $3.2K || FD $4.2K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
On a four-game slate, it is important to find good leverage points. Edmonton and Tampa Bay should be the most popular. One leverage point would be to roster a goalie that goes against one of these opponents. With all of the totals and odds so close, it is difficult to project who a popular goalie might be to stack against for potential leverage. Los Angeles and Carolina have the lowest implied totals but still over three goals.
If playing in a small tournament, choose one leverage point. If playing in a larger tournament, choose two leverage points.
In reality, you can make an argument to play any of the top two lines for any team on this slate. In the regular season, Los Angeles 2 and Minnesota 2 provided some nice pivots from the more popular top lines. You could say something similar about what is now Saint Louis 3 with Buchnevich and Tarasenko on that line. Those are a few good options to pivot from the crowd with in a GPP.
