Updated May Rankings and Tiers: Starting Pitcher

3 years ago by Nick Mariano

The time for chalking things up to “just April shenanigans” has come and gone, and we here at RotoBaller felt that it was time for a rankings update with roughly 20 percent of the season in the books. Of course, now we’re closer to 25 percent but don’t worry -- we’ll always bring you the latest analysis across the site for the best context possible. This round features rankings from myself and my Reddit-famous brochacho Kyle Bishop, so you know you’re getting the best.

The pitching world has been absolutely rocked by this 10-day disabled list, as many arms are finding themselves on the shelf when they might’ve simply skipped a start or just pitched through some general fatigue/ineffectiveness/dirt-bike incidents. We can’t say for certain that anything fishy is afoot, but DL trips are up roughly 50 percent and the fantasy world is still reacting to those ripple effects.

As a result, those who have stayed healthy look even better thus far, and some hot starts stand out even more than usual with so many others hurt. For instance, James Paxton and Corey Kluber both got hurt pretty much as soon as we submitted our updated ranks. Obviously, Jameson Taillon's rank should be ignored and we wish him all the best in his battle with cancer.

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2017 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitchers (May Updates)

You can check out all of our updated rankings. Positional tiers, top prospects, dynasty ranks, and more. It's all free.

Ranking	Tier	Player	Position	Kyle	Nick	Composite
1	1	Clayton Kershaw	SP	7	6	6.5
2	1	Max Scherzer	SP	10	14	12
3	1	Chris Sale	SP	18	20	19
4	1	Corey Kluber	SP	23	23	23
5	1	Jacob deGrom	SP	28	35	31.5
6	1	Yu Darvish	SP	48	26	37
7	2	Stephen Strasburg	SP	37	38	37.5
8	2	Justin Verlander	SP	54	30	42
9	2	Jake Arrieta	SP	50	42	46
10	2	Jon Lester	SP	44	48	46
11	2	Carlos Carrasco	SP	38	55	46.5
12	2	Chris Archer	SP	56	43	49.5
13	3	Johnny Cueto	SP	45	92	68.5
14	3	James Paxton	SP	74	65	69.5
15	3	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	89	52	70.5
16	3	Gerrit Cole	SP	75	70	72.5
17	3	Carlos Martinez	SP	96	58	77
18	3	Dallas Keuchel	SP	90	69	79.5
19	3	Zack Greinke	SP	85	96	90.5
20	4	Danny Duffy	SP	93	93	93
21	4	Michael Fulmer	SP	114	80	97
22	4	Kenta Maeda	SP	92	108	100
23	4	Jose Quintana	SP	110	105	107.5
24	4	Lance McCullers	SP	129	91	110
25	4	David Price	SP	98	123	110.5
26	4	Marcus Stroman	SP	123	99	111
27	4	Danny Salazar	SP	134	95	114.5
28	5	Kyle Hendricks	SP	137	106	121.5
29	5	Rick Porcello	SP	122	135	128.5
30	5	Julio Teheran	SP	154	107	130.5
31	5	Rich Hill	SP	148	127	137.5
32	5	Julio Urias	SP	142	133	137.5
33	5	Jameson Taillon	SP	188	89	138.5
34	5	John Lackey	SP	145	134	139.5
35	5	Aaron Nola	SP	149	138	143.5
36	5	Cole Hamels	SP	143	149	146
37	6	Aaron Sanchez	SP	184	110	147
38	6	Sean Manaea	SP	158	141	149.5
39	6	Tanner Roark	SP	159	144	151.5
40	6	Noah Syndergaard	SP	169	136	152.5
41	6	Luis Severino	SP	183	128	155.5
42	6	Madison Bumgarner	SP	170	145	157.5
43	6	Matt Harvey	SP	198	131	164.5
44	6	Michael Pineda	SP	157	182	169.5
45	6	Jharel Cotton	SP	#N/A	170	170
46	7	Dylan Bundy	SP	207	153	180
47	7	Jeff Samardzija	SP	203	175	189
48	7	Steven Matz	SP	178	210	194
49	7	Adam Wainwright	SP	204	185	194.5
50	7	Drew Pomeranz	SP	144	247	195.5
51	7	Vincent Velasquez	SP	185	206	195.5
52	7	Jonathan Gray	SP	150	243	196.5
53	7	Sonny Gray	SP	236	160	198
54	7	J.A. Happ	SP	180	218	199
55	8	Jerad Eickhoff	SP	212	188	200
56	8	Ervin Santana	SP	244	159	201.5
57	8	Ivan Nova	SP	252	154	203
58	8	Robbie Ray	SP	190	217	203.5
59	8	Chris Devenski	SP/RP	168	254	211
60	8	Lance Lynn	SP	247	181	214
61	8	Matt Shoemaker	SP	235	199	217
62	8	Felix Hernandez	SP	#N/A	221	221
63	8	Gio Gonzalez	SP	241	203	222
64	8	Jake Odorizzi	SP	200	249	224.5
65	8	Ian Kennedy	SP	245	213	229
66	8	Marco Estrada	SP	237	227	232
67	8	Robert Gsellman	SP	275	197	236
68	9	Zack Wheeler	SP	271	205	238
69	9	Jeremy Hellickson	SP	279	216	247.5
70	9	Carlos Rodon	SP	249	252	250.5
71	9	Blake Snell	SP	#N/A	251	251
72	9	Alex Cobb	SP	#N/A	255	255
73	9	Joe Ross	SP	286	225	255.5
74	9	Eduardo Rodriguez	SP	264	250	257
75	9	Michael Wacha	SP	#N/A	259	259
76	9	Daniel Norris	SP	299	220	259.5
77	9	Taijuan Walker	SP	201	322	261.5
78	9	Kevin Gausman	SP	298	228	263
79	10	Francisco Liriano	SP	291	236	263.5
80	10	Alex Wood	SP	269	262	265.5
81	10	Daniel Straily	SP	268	#N/A	268
82	10	Andrew Triggs	SP	272	266	269
83	10	Garrett Richards	SP	#N/A	270	270
84	10	Chris Tillman	SP	#N/A	272	272
85	10	Matt Moore	SP	#N/A	273	273
86	11	Kendall Graveman	SP	#N/A	278	278
87	11	Michael Foltynewicz	SP	282	277	279.5
88	11	Zach Davies	SP	#N/A	283	283
89	11	Brandon McCarthy	SP	263	310	286.5
90	11	Jason Hammel	SP	#N/A	287	287
91	11	Mike Leake	SP	262	319	290.5
92	12	Miguel Gonzalez	SP	#N/A	293	293
93	12	Hector Santiago	SP	#N/A	299	299
94	12	Raisel Iglesias	SP/RP	161	462	311.5
95	12	Patrick Corbin	SP	274	356	315
96	12	Drew Smyly	SP	#N/A	323	323
97	12	Wily Peralta	SP	#N/A	329	329
98	12	Bartolo Colon	SP	#N/A	330	330
99	13	Anthony DeSclafani	SP	#N/A	333	333
100	13	Junior Guerra	SP	#N/A	336	336
101	13	Archie Bradley	SP	267	406	336.5
102	13	Jaime Garcia	SP	#N/A	340	340
103	13	Tyler Anderson	SP	#N/A	342	342
104	13	Collin McHugh	SP	#N/A	343	343
105	13	Tyler Chatwood	SP	#N/A	344	344
106	13	Joe Musgrove	SP	#N/A	355	355
107	13	Derek Holland	SP	#N/A	362	362
108	13	Jose Berrios	SP	#N/A	363	363
109	13	Brandon Finnegan	SP	#N/A	364	364
110	14	Tyler Skaggs	SP	#N/A	369	369
111	14	Chad Kuhl	SP	#N/A	397	397
112	14	Adam Conley	SP	#N/A	400	400
113	14	Trevor Bauer	SP	#N/A	410	410
114	14	Matt Boyd	SP	#N/A	411	411
115	14	Jordan Zimmermann	SP	#N/A	422	422
116	14	Hisashi Iwakuma	SP	#N/A	425	425
117	14	Bud Norris	SP	#N/A	429	429
118	14	Wade Miley	SP	#N/A	433	433
119	14	Jimmy Nelson	SP	#N/A	452	452
120	14	Tyler Glasnow	SP	#N/A	455	455
121	14	James Shields	SP	#N/A	467	467
122	14	Wei-Yin Chen	SP	#N/A	474	474
123	14	Tyson Ross	SP	#N/A	475	475
124	14	David Phelps	SP	#N/A	476	476
125	14	Matt Garza	SP	#N/A	477	477
126	14	Mike Montgomery	SP	#N/A	482	482
127	14	Nate Karns	SP	#N/A	492	492
128	14	Homer Bailey	SP	#N/A	493	493
129	14	Scott Kazmir	SP	#N/A	494	494
130	14	Tom Koehler	SP	#N/A	495	495
131	14	Ariel Miranda	SP	#N/A	496	496
132	14	Tyler Duffey	SP	#N/A	497	497
133	14	Seth Lugo	SP	#N/A	498	498

Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis: May

50 percent of the preseason Tier One guys are on the DL, with Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard both out for the foreseeable future. Yu Darvish takes a small step forward into the bottom of the tier, but Jacob deGrom is the real mover and shaker here. He’s leapt from No. 14 to No. 5 here, though two of his three May starts haven’t gone so hot. Still, only one of them was a real clunker (May 3, five walks and five earned against the Braves) and he bounced back from that to strike out 11 Giants in a quality start.

Heck, he won that game against Atlanta. He’s just 2-1 through eight starts, but owns an absurd 12.39 K/9 that leads the National League and his 3.16 SIERA ranks inside the top 10 as well. His K’s are no fluke either, as his 15.3 percent swinging-strike rate trails only Danny Salazar, Chris Sale and Max Scherzer. Those guys can bring the electricity. Buy in to the stuff and hope the Mets can support him.

Dallas Keuchel, eh? He skyrockets to No. 18 from No. 39 here thanks to a perfect, MLB-leading 7-0 record with the third-best ERA out of qualified starters (1.84). He also leads the league in innings as of May 17 with 63 2/3 frames under his belt, which just makes him all the more sweeter for those of you in points leagues. Sure, his 7.63 K/9 won’t win anything on its own but it’s more than serviceable enough to go along with his league-leading 66.9 percent ground-ball rate. He seems to have regained his ability to just relentlessly snipe the edges of the strike zone and leave hitters with nothing good to hit while still limiting walks (1.98 BB/9,) so it’s hard to ignore this.

Aaron Sanchez drops from No. 23 to No. 37 thanks to gaining a bit of a Rich Hill vibe to him with Blister: The Sequel popping up far too often. It doesn’t help that when he’s been on the mound he’s surviving on some luck rather than skill, as his 4.77 FIP/4.40 xFIP/4.62 SIERA are pretty ugly with a relatively-low 43.6 percent ground-ball rate thus far (54.4 percent in ’16.) Yes, 18 1/3 innings where he hasn’t even been healthy for all of them make for an incredible tilted sample size to analyze, but there’s no questioning that his stock takes a hit regardless. He also made some real value with his 15-2 record last season, and Toronto needs to get their bats back in order before we can see Sanchez getting enough support for serious wins in ’17.

Ervin Santana only sits at No. 56 (for good reason,) though I’ve still got him nearly 100 slots higher than Kyle. I hate/am astounded by his peripherals as well, but his turnaround began in the middle of 2016 and he’s got the seventh-best ERA over the last calendar year (2.88) and seems to be channeling his early-2010s form when he habitually outpitched his underlying metrics. However, he never posted rates like these: .128 BABIP, 98.4 percent strand rate, 25.9 percent soft-contact rate, 52.5 percent pull rate. What that says is he’s getting lucky, but is also inducing terrible contact and batters are out in front of a lot of his offerings. It’s not an ideal (or sustainable) path to success, but he’s not going to suddenly become a pumpkin either.

Other notable risers are types like Luis Severino, Ivan Nova, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Rodriguez, Alex Wood and Andrew Triggs. I would put Wood higher today now that I feel more secure about his slot in the rotation, though I fear the Dodgers will place him on the DL with some minor injury as they continue to utilize their pitching depth to conserve innings. I guess that comes off as accusatory -- just calling it as I see it, and it’s smart baseball by them with their roster. And I would boost Nate Karns up a ton today as well, toward the SP50 range. Matt Garza, Ariel Miranda and even Wade Miley would draw a small bump up from that last group as well.