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The New York Mets' disappointing 2021 season was followed by their delay in securing a new general manager, inability to re-sign starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard, and failure to bring back starting pitcher Steven Matz from Toronto in the early part of the current offseason. This had many fans wondering whether the Mets were destined for failure in 2022 considering the perceived inability to attract viable free agent talent.
These concerns have been put to rest for the time being. Less than a week after Matz spurned the Mets to head to St. Louis, the Mets signed outfielder Mark Canha, infielder Eduardo Escobar, outfielder Starling Marte, and starting pitcher Max Scherzer. While these signings are no guarantee that the Mets will avoid another poor campaign in 2022, they are certainly a step in the right direction. This is especially true for a team that was in the bottom half of MLB in on-base percentage, 27th in runs scored per game, and 29th in hits per game in 2021.
From a fantasy perspective, we will now examine what the move to New York will mean for the value of their biggest offensive acquisition, Starling Marte, in 2022.
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Reviewing Starling Marte’s 2021
Marte is coming off a 2021 campaign in which he posted a .310/.383/.458 slash line over 526 plate appearances between Oakland and Miami. He led all of MLB in stolen bases with 47 (25 of those coming in the 56 games after his trade to Oakland in the middle of the 2021 season). He also belted 12 home runs to go with 55 RBI, 89 runs scored, 27 doubles, and posted a wRC+ of 134. A career .289 hitter with a career .346 OBP, Marte will serve as a much-needed sparkplug for a Mets team that struggled to steal bases (25th in stolen bases in 2021) and score runs in 2021.
Marte’s metrics in 2021 generally fell in line with his career underlying metrics. His sprint speed was 28.4 ft/sec, just a slight tick off of his 28.5 ft/sec posted in 2020. In addition, Marte’s overall plate discipline remained consistent in 2021 from his figures in 2020, though his chase rate did decline by over 4% in 2021.
His 30.1% chase rate likely helped support the highest seasonal walk total and OBP of his career (43 walks and .383 OBP). If he does regress closer to his career average chase rate of 34.7%, we could see a dip in his walk totals and corresponding OBP in 2022. Marte also posted a somewhat unsustainable BABIP of .372 in 2021, which would suggest that his batting average of .310 could see some regression as well, particularly given the .277 xBA he put up in 2021.
Looking Ahead to 2022
Of the three everyday player free agents signed by the Mets, Marte is the only one who is presently guaranteed a starting role. Marte should be earmarked to play centerfield and either bat leadoff or second behind outfielder Brandon Nimmo in what should be a solid Mets lineup. This remains true despite the loss of infielder Javier Baez and the (almost certain) loss of outfielder Michael Conforto.
Steamer currently projects a .269/.332/.427 slash line for Marte to go with 18 HR, 65 RBI, 83 runs scored, and 30 stolen bases. It is likely that these projected 2022 declines in batting average, OBP, and steals are fueled by his high 2021 BABIP, age (33), as well as a likely regression closer to his career OBP of .346.
Coming from poor hitters’ parks in both Oakland and Miami, the move to a similarly pitcher-friendly Citifield should not do much to move the needle in terms of Marte’s overall numbers. It will be the lineup behind Marte that will dictate whether he can maintain or improve upon the numbers he posted in 2021.
Though the Marlins’ offense was one of the worst in baseball in 2021, the Mets and A’s lineups were virtually identical when it came to batting average and OBP. Oakland was 21st (.238) in batting average and the Mets were 20th (.239). Oakland was 16th in OBP (.317) and the Mets were 17th (.315). Marte’s overall run production should, therefore, not see much of a change unless shortstop Francisco Lindor has a bounce-back campaign, and first baseman Pete Alonso can come closer to his 2019 HR and RBI production.
The loss of Baez and Conforto may give rise to a legitimate concern. Those departures, however, should not have a huge impact on the overall production of the Mets lineup, as counterintuitive as it may seem. Assuming Canha and Escobar are given full-time roles in left field and third base, respectively, and they can match their 2021 productivity, the 2020 production of Baez and Conforto should be replicated. As a result, we can likely expect similar run totals for Marte in 2022, just as Steamer currently forecasts.
The Mets will also likely give Marte, who boasted a sprint speed in the 83rd percentile in all of MLB in 2021, a permanent green light in an attempt to rectify the putrid station-to-station offense that plagued them in 2021. This should keep Marte’s SB totals toward the top of the MLB leaderboard again in 2022, though 47 steals may be a reach for the 33-year old.
Fantasy Value in 2022
Overall, Marte’s already solid fantasy value does not really move in either direction strictly based on his move to New York. He is guaranteed playing time, a spot at the top of a solid batting order which was similar to that in Oakland, he will be playing in a similar home ballpark, and he is familiar with the pitching in the N.L. East.
Slight regression in steals, batting average, and OBP is probable, given his age and his career hitting metrics. Such regression would have, however, likely come whether he remained with the A's or not.
Marte may see a slight boost in run totals with the move to New York given the lineup behind him if Lindor and Alonso have bounce-back campaigns. Notably, the Mets will likely make additional moves to potentially clear up roster space and bring in another starting pitcher following the MLB lockout.
Should the Mets opt to bring in another big bat, such as Kris Bryant, the fantasy value of Marte could be enhanced with a more potent lineup hitting behind him. More lineup protection could have a mitigating impact on any possible regression in his hitting ratios. As the saying goes, a rising tide lifts all boats.
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