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Ben discusses starting pitcher fantasy baseball draft values, sleepers, targets for 2025 drafts. These are pitchers who changed teams and can be fantasy studs.
It has been a busy hot stove of an offseason this winter. Juan Soto was understandably the darling free agent who garnered all of the media attention until he signed with the Mets. Since then, numerous other high-profile names have seen a change in scenery via the trade market or free agency.
Starting pitchers, as is often the case, have constituted a significant portion of the offseason action in 2024 moving into 2025. Luis Severino finally made his way out of the Big Apple and will be pitching in Oakland ... actually, make that Sacramento. Max Fried is coming up north to pitch in the Bronx.
Fantasy managers will need to take the new scenery into consideration for any of these pitchers who find themselves on a new team. Park factors, the lineup producing runs for them, the fielding behind them, and, perhaps most importantly, the bullpen on their new teams can contribute to significant changes in fantasy output. Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) takes a deep dive into three arms who may experience major changes in their new homes.
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Corbin Burnes, Arizona Diamondbacks
After years of gradual improvement with the Milwaukee Brewers, is Burnes becoming a "mercenary?" Probably not, if his six-year deal holds enough weight to keep him in the desert long-term. But even so, it has been interesting to see Burnes jump from Milwaukee to Baltimore to Arizona in the last three seasons.
Whether he stays with the snakes long-term or not, Burnes has certainly earned the right to decide where he plays and for how long. Averaging over 6.0 IP per game in 2024, Burnes is on a short list of arms that define the idea of an "ace" in the modern MLB. Importantly, he has also been able to stay healthy, logging over 190 IP in each of the last three seasons.
But it is not just about volume. Burnes is a true "set and forget" arm, a dying breed in fantasy baseball. Odds are he can get managers a win, six or more strikeouts, and help with ratios each time he takes the bump, or at least two of those three. The chances of a blow-up are minuscule, with only three outings in 2024 in which he gave up more than three earned.
Burnes finished 2024 in the top 10 for all SPs in ERA (2.92), as well as the top 25 for K%, BB%, FIP, and xFIP. His 95-mph cut fastball leads the charge as his dominant pitch. Pairing that with his offspeed pitches, he knows how to make hitters look foolish. His curveball carries a 37.8% Whiff% and his slider a 46.3% Whiff%. In other words, nearly half the time that hitters swing at his slider, they whiff. Dominant stuff.
A model of consistency.
Corbin Burnes brings his impressive resume to the desert. pic.twitter.com/rgXu1rGzZt
— MLB (@MLB) December 31, 2024
The Orioles were no slouches, providing plenty of run support for Burnes. Their bullpen was decent but did go through a few shake-ups during the 2024 season. So, what about Burnes' new digs in Arizona?
Burnes will see plenty of run support in the desert. The Diamondbacks return most of their key hitters in 2025. Josh Bell, who ended up being a half-season rental, is off to Washington, but most other key hitters return.
They have added Josh Naylor by sending Slade Cecconi off to Cleveland, bolstering their power options to cover Christian Walker's leaving. Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and the rest of the crew compiled a .337 wOBA in 2024, tied for the best number in all of baseball, ahead of even the mashing Orioles, who held a .324 wOBA in 2024. That is likely to continue in 2025.
The bullpen is likely to be a lateral move, possibly an improvement from Baltimore sans Felix Bautista. Paul Sewald's ill-fated 2024 campaign led to a Justin Martinez mini-breakout while the team also traded for A.J. Puk. Kevin Ginkel and Scott McGough provide a bit of experience in the earlier innings but look for the Diamondbacks to aggressively target a strong closer if they can start 2025 on the right foot.
Finally, Chase Field and Oriole Park profile similarly with Baltimore's dimensions changing. They are both in the middle of Baseball Savant's ballpark rankings for hitter- versus pitcher-friendly parks. The home park change should not be much of a factor.
Burnes would be great for ratios and strikeouts no matter where he pitches, even on the worst teams in MLB. However, his move to Arizona may afford him an even better lineup of hitters behind him with an equally average bullpen. He is an ace, will remain an ace, and should be targeted at his current ADP to be a fantasy ace again in 2025.
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have been involved in many high-profile free-agent conversations this offseason. They were linked to Juan Soto, although two or three teams always seemed more likely to land him, as ended up being the case. They were in on Max Fried but were beaten out by their bitter rivals, the Yankees. Most recently, they landed Walker Buehler on a one-year deal.
Crochet has been a shoo-in to leave the Pale Hose since the middle of last season when he began to show the world that he was always meant to be a starter, not a reliever. Whether it was his questionable public demands or just too high an asking price, Crochet did not get moved until mid-December. The price tag was still quite high, with the Red Sox giving up four prospects for the lefty.
Crochet undoubtedly earned that asking price. He led the entire MLB in K%, logging a 35.1% K%. Blake Snell came in second, logging a 34.7% mark for reference. Combining that with a top-25 ranking in BB%, Crochet also led the entire MLB with a 29.6% K-BB%, a telling advanced statistic that points to phenomenal under-the-hood stuff. Couple that with top-10 finishes in FIP and xFIP, and the sky is the limit for Crochet at just 25 years old.
Garrett Crochet, K'ing the Side in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/E32dfyfqdd
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 21, 2024
The stuff under the hood certainly profiles as that of an ace. His 97-mph (or higher) fastball is dominant. He has a modern approach to "off-speed" pitching, utilizing three relatively fast-moving pitches with progressively more movement to fool hitters. He complements that fastball first with a 92-mph cutter and even more with an 84-mph sweeper that carried a brutal 42.2% Whiff% in 2024.
A move from Guaranteed Rate Field to Fenway Park is unlikely to be a positive, though. Fenway profiles as an overall hitter-friendly park, underscored by the Green Monster in left field that could, in theory, inflate Crochet's HR numbers in particular. As a lefty, pitching to righties who are trying to moonshot one over the Green Monster is less than ideal.
On the other hand, Crochet will have some chances to tally wins. Despite 11 QS in 2024, Crochet only amassed six wins, obviously due to playing for the dreadful White Sox.
With a change in the color of his socks, a change in run support should come as well. Boston ranked a solid eighth place in team wOBA in 2024. Not only were the White Sox last in wOBA in 2024, but they also posted a uniquely abysmal .272 wOBA.
The next four lowest teams in wOBA were all between .294-.296. In other words, the White Sox were much, much worse than the rest of baseball in hitting for 2024.
Finally, in regards to the bullpen, the nod also clearly goes to Boston. Both Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman have something left in the tank for late innings. Justin Slaten is a promising young arm. When Garrett Whitlock returns then he will provide additional strength in long relief and middle innings. This bullpen is certain to outperform the closer carousel that worked its way around the South Side last year.
The stuff, team, and bullpen are there for an ace-level performance for Crochet in 2025. The only reservations are a slight downgrade in the park, and perhaps a "sophomore slump." If Crochet is there at an SP2 ADP, he will be a steal. At SP1, his relative recency to starting games will be a small concern, but he still may hold an ace upside.
Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies
Another lefty who desperately needed to get off a flailing (and failing) franchise is Jesus Luzardo. It is unclear exactly what the Marlins are trying to accomplish at any level of their franchise, but winning (or even competing) in 2025 does not seem to be a priority in South Florida.
Overall, loanDepot Park and The Bank (Citizens Bank Park) profile similarly. They are tied in the overall ranking, both slightly hitter-friendly, in Baseball Savant's ranking of hitter-friendly ballparks.
The Marlins' park skews slightly more toward extra-base hits, likely due to the larger outfield area, whereas the Phillies' home skews more toward HR with the short porch in LF, in particular. As a left-handed pitcher, Luzardo may give up slightly more HRs to right-handed batters in particular, but overall the park change seems to be a mostly lateral move.
Although the Phillies bullpen was their Achilles' heel in 2024, it still projects significantly better in 2025 than the Marlins bullpen. With Tanner Scott gone, Calvin Faucher and Andrew Nardi are the most recognizable names in the Miami pen.
Compare that to Jose Alvarado, Orion Kerkering, and Jordan Romano. All three of those names could be closers on lesser teams. Matt Strahm has also posted incredible numbers. The bullpen will be an upgrade for Luzardo coming from Miami.
Finally, the difference in run support can be kept short. The Marlins spent 2024 sequentially purging the marginally recognizable hitters from their roster. After sending Jake Burger elsewhere, the only recognizable name left is Jesus Sanchez. Meanwhile, in Philadelphia, Kyle Schwarber is the fourth- or fifth-most prominent name in that lineup.
Everything is pointing up for Luzardo in 2025. He has always had solid stuff but has been held back by a floundering franchise without a clear plan to win. By moving his arm to a strong Phillies team that will compete for a pennant, Luzardo can be a sneaky pick to outperform his ADP in 2025.
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