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Matt Collier uses his FaBIO sabermetric to analyze spring training results for starting pitchers. Which SP could be fantasy baseball risers for 2022 based on early stats?
My Rotoballer debut article more fully explains the FaBIO methodology. Every plate appearance is sorted into one of 12 event type bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull OFFB, Center OFFB, Oppo OFFB, Pull LD, Center LD, Oppo LD, Pull GB, Center GB, Oppo GB) and the pitcher is charged with league's average runs value for that event type.
Eventually, we wind up with a slew of fundamentals-rooted percentile ratings expressed on a 100 to 0 scale where 84 is plus, 50 is average, and 16 is minus. The all-in-one Overall Rating (based on expected run avoidance per batter faced over all of that pitcher's batters faced) will be used primarily as filtering criteria with relatively more attention paid to how the three core sub-Ratings of Control (or CTL, based on BB+HBP per PA), Strikeout (or K, based on K per PA), and Batted Ball Profile (or BBP, based on expected run avoidance per batted ball) combine to produce Overall Rating.
There are effectively three MLB spring training leagues now: 1. Arizona's Cactus League (15 teams), 2. Florida's Grapefruit League Atlantic Coast (five teams), 3. Florida's Grapefruit League Gulf Coast (10 teams). Since a pitcher exclusively to disproportionately faces batters from one of those three leagues over their entire MLB Spring Training body of work, each will be compared to the qualifier set of pitchers of that one league.
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A Look Back at 2021 Spring Training FaBIO Ratings
FaBIO just might be at its very best in spring training as it focuses on fundamentals and isn't influenced much at all by spring winds, blinding skies, the thin Arizona air, or fill-in minor leaguers playing rougher defense at positions not so familiar to them. What we cannot control for is whether the pitcher may have caught a break by drawing a mostly minor-leaguer-laden road lineup when their turn to pitch came up.
Among what we will be on the lookout for are SP candidates whose FaBIO fundamentals are trending up in spring training in the wake of either a down or injury-limited regular season the prior year. More established MLB SP who aren't battling for a rotation spot may not be exerting themselves too much so one ought not overly sweat ordinary to worse out-generation fundamentals... until those translate to the regular season, naturally.
A calendar year ago, these 2021 Cactus League pitchers posted a plus Overall Rating while meeting a "startery" 30 BF and 10 BF/G qualifier criteria.
Logan Webb, Carlos Rodon, Freddy Peralta, and Anthony DeSclafani would go on to post what were very strong 2021 regular season MLB SP FaBIO lines that few saw coming before spring training. Would-be 2021 National League Cy Young winner Burnes also appears. May's fundamentals were clearly up in the spring and that work preceded a month of MLB dominance ended by Tommy John surgery. Such FaBIO success was short-lived for some as six of these 19 SP would fail to beat 50 at Overall Rating in the MLB regular season: Kyle Freeland, Adrian Houser, Tony Gonsolin, Cole Irvin, Logan Allen, and Daulton Jefferies.
These 2021 Grapefruit Leaguers posted a plus Overall Rating while meeting similar BF and BF/G criteria. Spring upstart Randy Dobnak had his out-generation wheels fall off not long after inking an extension and he would only make one MLB & two MiLB appearances after June 19 due to a finger/nail issue that still plagues him. Teammate Kenta Maeda wasn't far behind in the spring but would eventually fade less precipitously and need Tommy John.
Domingo German could not maintain that many K in the regular season but did post a 92 OVERALL via a 81 CTL/61 K/96 Batted Ball Profile in his return from 2019-2020 suspension. The big news from Florida would turn out to be future American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray posting a 49 CTL & 95 Batted Ball Profile after those two Ratings had only summed to two (0 CTL + 2 BBP) in a very K or bust 2020 MLB campaign. Trevor Rogers and Huascar Ynoa would later prove ready to deliver above-average MLB SP performance in the regular season. In this table of 15, only Dobnak (via a 18 OVERALL) and Brandon Bielak (via a 33) would post a sub-50 Overall Rating in regular season.
2022 Spring Training FaBIO Ratings
The offseason winter lockout has us resigned to examining very reduced samples of spring training game action for most 2022 MLB SP candidates. MLB SP options pitching in backfield minor league games further whittled down data samples.
Below are our plus Overall Rating earners among pitchers who averaged more than nine BF/G from the Cactus League over at least two appearances. Merrill Kelly was on pace for a plus OVERALL in 2020 when thoracic outlet syndrome intervened. Adrian Houser just made the plus OVERALL spring training table in 2021, but this time around, his marks seem unlikely to fall as far as they did in that regular season (a two standard deviation decline from this spring 99 would still have him above average). Does a 2022 change of scenery beget SP2 to SP1 outcomes for Noah Syndergaard and Jon Gray, who surely needed one more than most do?
As noted in the prior Flyballer LHSP Prospects piece, Reid Detmers has to strike out many more MLB batters than he did in his MLB debut to overcome a minus to worse batted ball profile; extreme K success in two spring appearances (sandwiched around a backfield outing) has him far more viable for 2022 MLB SP reps than I forecasted. Matt Brash and George Kirby posted remarkably similar spring FaBIO lines while thrice working in the same game against roughly the same batters... this after Brash had rated more fundamentally advanced at K and BATTED BALL PROFILE than Kirby did on the same 2021 MiLB squads.
Logan Webb, Carlos Rodon, and Alex Cobb (who has profile similarities to emerging star Webb) make for a menacing trio of out-generator Giants that pair K ability with weak contact. Clayton Kershaw seems healthy but can he reproduce his phenomenal fundamentals of 2021?
Below are our plus Overall Rating earners among pitchers who averaged more than nine BF/G from the two coasts of the Grapefruit League over at least two appearances. Jacob deGrom need not even be healthy to rate elite. Once-very-much-a-project-starter Sandy Alcantara gets a little better every season and seems a good bet to finish as a top-10 to top-20 SP if his 2021 second half and 2022 spring carries over to April.
Nathan Eovaldi's fundamentals were very up in the 2021 second half and postseason and were again so this spring; the 2022 American League Cy Young could be his to take if the door is left open by also-appearing Gerrit Cole. Luis Garcia had rated plus OVERALL for much of 2021 before fading in the second half; improved Oppo-Handed Batter ratings via his cutter-change duo would go a long way toward keeping him in the green.
Aaron Nola finished 2021 on a roll and seems to be starting 2022 the same way; I would favor him slightly over Wheeler now even if the latter was fully healthy. And there's Joe Ryan, the case study subject of my initial Flyballer RHSP Prospects post, who still has his K+IFFB without BB game intact. This spring FaBIO profile rather resembles the strong balanced 2021 one of Eduardo Rodriguez, who should fare much better on traditional stats minus the close LF fence and poor infield defense of 2021 Boston. Will Josiah Gray learn to be more risk-averse to the longball and ride higher CTL+K fundamentals to a 2022 plus OVERALL? Could rotation-mate Patrick Corbin be returning to 2019 form and develop into a premium trade deadline chip? Johan Oviedo would be hard-pressed to maintain a Batted Ball Profile Rating high enough to overcome a poorer CTL+K combo that would else undermine OVERALL.
Relevance to Fantasy Leagues
FaBIO is adept at quantifying key pitching fundamentals over small intervals of time and quite often Mr. Right Now takes priority over Mr. Right on a competitive fantasy ballclub.
History portends that FaBIO has already filtered out a handful or two of unexpected 2022 MLB starting pitcher breakout stars to semi-stars based purely on a very small sample of spring training batters faced. That list stands to be headlined by Noah Syndergaard and Jon Gray. Patrick Corbin, Merrill Kelly, Adrian Houser, Luis Garcia, and Josiah Gray also set up as strategic early season plays at worst.
Among still-prospects, I favor Matt Brash over George Kirby over Joe Ryan over Reid Detmers for 2022 per how the K and batted ball profile stars align in each case. Opportunities may present to seize upon Detmers' strikeouts (assuming they translate to regular season) while strategically benching him in closer-fenced venues like Houston (there's a May trip to Boston, too) where his flyball bias and lack of favorable batted ball outcomes in general could get him roughed up by a lineup that makes relatively more contact. Tucker Davidson is down to a final option year but retains some sleeper 2022+ MLB K LHSP potential in that he got rather many whiffs in 2022 MLB spring training and 2021 MiLB (a monster 91 CTL/98 K/97 BATTED BALL PROFILE slashie over just 84 BF at 21 BF/G) while not getting nearly as many versus 94 MLB regular season and postseason batters faced.
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