RADIO
The final stop of the West Coast swing brings us south of the border for the third iteration of Mexico's National Open as a part of the PGA Tour schedule. And rather befitting of the country it represents, this week's host venue profiles much more like a 10-handicappers paradise than the major championship-caliber tests we've seen on Tour over the last few weeks.
The Swing Season Resort Course comparisons don't end there, however, as Jon Rahm's PGA exodus combined with its new scheduling spot between the signature events of the West Coast and Florida Swings has taken many of the marquee names away from this championship. In their place come a collection of up-and-coming talents who would love nothing more than to jump-start their 2024 campaigns as the major season approaches. Given the topsy-turvy nature of recent results on the PGA Tour, maybe a change of scenery is just what we need to find a sense of normalcy.
Before we get into the oddsboard on tap for golf bettors Monday morning, this piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market, and set you up to make the crucial decisions necessary before the market shifts later in the week. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Vidanta Vallarta and the 2024 Mexico Open!
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The Golf Course
Vidanta Vallarta - Par 71; 7,456 yards
Past Champions
- 2023 - Tony Finau (-24) over Jon Rahm
- 2022 - Jon Rahm (-17) over Finau/Kitayama/B. Wu
Vidanta Vallarta by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):
- Average Fairway Width -- 40.9 yards; Fourth widest on the PGA Tour
- Driving Accuracy -- 63.4%; 10th highest on Tour
- Average Driving Distance -- 300.1 yards; Third highest on Tour
- Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.30; Seventh lowest on Tour
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: +0.031; Sixth easiest on Tour
In direct opposition to most of this West Coast swing, Vidanta Vallarta doesn't feature the same driving perils as we've seen recently at TPC Scottsdale, Riviera, or Torrey Pines. In fact, when you combine the 41-yard wide landing areas available to players in the fairway with a rough penalty of just 0.17 strokes (seventh lowest on Tour), you could make the argument that this week presents one of the more benign overall off-the-tee tests on the PGA Tour.
The lack of true obstacles dissuading players from pulling driver off of every tee box is further pronounced by the fact that seven of the nine Par 4s around Vidanta Vallarta measure over 440 yards, and five of the nine measure over 475. Add in four Par 5s that measure from 548 to 637 yards, and there aren't a ton of mitigating factors in place to perturb potential bomb-and-gouge tactics.
Looking back through the two previous iterations of the Mexico Open held here, you'll quickly see a strong correlation between driving distance and the top yearly performers off of the tee. Last year, the 10 best drivers of the ball for the week (per SG: OTT) hit their drives over 10 yards further than the field average (309.88 vs. 299.1), and in 2022, 14 of the top 15 players in SG: OTT for the week rated out above field average in driving distance.
I will say that Vidanta Vallarta does have a few hazards in play for exceptionally wayward tee shots, as its two-year penalty fraction of 6.2% is comparable to notably penal courses like Bay Hill, Sawgrass, and Muirfield Village. However, with landing areas this wide and rough this forgiving, players won't exactly have to possess elite driving precision to avoid these potential pitfalls. As long as he's not rating out near the bottom of the field driving accuracy, anyone with an above-average distance grade will be well suited to conquer these forgiving confines.
Vidanta Vallarta by the Numbers (Approach):
- Green in Regulation Rate -- 67.7%; 13th highest on the PGA Tour
- Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: +0.018; Eighth easiest on Tour
- Key Proximity Ranges:
- 175-200 yards (accounts for 23.4% of historical approach shots)
- 200-225 yards (15.0%)
- 250+ yards (16.4%)
Carrying on with what I alluded to in the driving section, the extremely distance-biased layout of Vidanta Vallarta also plays a significant factor when projecting what clubs players will be hitting with on their second shots. Only one Par 4 along this routing plays between 350-440 yards, and all five of Vidanta's Par 3s play over 170.
This incessant emphasis on length leads us to one of the most dramatically skewed approach distributions we'll see all year. Over the last two seasons at Vidanta Vallarta, we've seen 62% of approach shots come from 175 yards and beyond (a 53% increase from the average course on Tour). In that time, none of the 25-yard proximity ranges below 175 yards come close to matching their season-long baselines.
From a modeling standpoint, this sort of unique significance placed on one particular proximity range makes things a lot easier when projecting the players with the best chance of separating themselves with their approach play this week.
When you take a look at long-term proximity splits from 175 yards and beyond, it will come as no surprise that we've routinely seen the likes of Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, and Gary Woodland make their way to the top of the SG: APP leaderboards here at Vidanta. I will be leaning heavily into a player's long-term approach splits from 175+ yards, and when isolating for recent form, I'll be placing a particular emphasis on recent performances at Torrey Pines, TPC Scottsdale, and Riviera (all courses which feature a similarly skewed distribution of mid/long irons).
Vidanta Vallarta by the Numbers (Around the Greens):
- Scrambling Percentage -- 58.1%; 0.6% above Tour Average
- Sand Save Difficulty -- +0.018; 12th easiest on Tour
- SG: Around the Green Difficulty: +0.061; Second easiest on Tour
If you were a fan of the short-game skill and creativity required to navigate Riviera's greenside surrounds, I'm sad to say that we will not be seeing the same mastery asked of players this week. In two seasons on Tour, Vidanta Vallarta has ranked 38th and 42nd (out of 42 courses) in Around the Green Difficulty, and top-five finishers have gained just 6% of their total shots from around the greens.
As we've discussed at some of the Tour's other preeminent birdie parties, players who are continually having to scramble for pars aren't likely to be in contention in the first place with projected scores this low. I will be using Par 5 scoring as a key stat, which does tend to naturally isolate players with above-average scrambling acumen, but we will not be placing any emphasis on traditional ARG stats like Sand Saves, Bogey Avoidance, etc.
Vidanta Vallarta by the Numbers (Putting):
- Agronomy -- Paspalum
- 3-Putt Percentage: 2.87%
- Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: +0.003; 13th easiest on Tour
We've talked a lot about the overall increase in forgiveness from tee-to-green here at Vidanta compared to the previous few Tour stops, and that sentiment only continues to gain steam as we move into the green complexes themselves. Like many of the other tropical venues we visit every year (Puerto Rico, Corales, El Cardonal, etc.), Vidanta Vallarta's greens are seeded with paspalum.
This coastal grass is commonly used in warmer, coastal climates due to its high heat/salinity resistance, and will present a much different feel to a group of players who have recently dealt with the maddening poa annua surfaces of California. In general, paspalum is a wider-bladed grass that runs slower than a typical bent/bermudagrass surface, and with the limited exposure we have to it in the United States, it can provide a wildly different feel depending on the surfaces you're used to at home.
For this reason, players who have found repeated success on other Paspalum Courses (Cocoa Beach, Puntacana, El Cardonal, Mayakoba, etc.) will receive a boost in my modeling this week. However, I don't expect these greens to provide nearly the same difficulties as the aforementioned poa annua of Torrey Pines, Riviera, etc.
In fact, there's a compelling case to be made that these slower, flatter surfaces will serve to prop up some of the Tour's more deficient putters. Through the years, we've seen the likes of Tony Finau, Cameron Champ, Emiliano Grillo, Chez Reavie, and Akshay Bhatia find repeated success on this surface -- five names who, if you've ever spent time tracking their rounds with a vested interest, aren't exactly the most reliable entities with the flat stick.
As things stand in our third iteration of the Mexico Open at Vidanta, it is difficult to differentiate between whether or not this paspalum correlation is rooted in substance or the fallacy of a small sample size. I'd advise you not to live and die by a few rounds of hot putting on this surface, and instead lean more into long-term putting baselines with positive paspalum history acting as a tiebreaker.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
The Sunday Shortlist
Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.
Stephan Jaeger
Stephan Jaeger extends his lead to two with this beauty 🎯
This is the first birdie of the day on No. 4 @FarmersInsOpen. pic.twitter.com/a0t81fgu03
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 26, 2024
Although he projects to be in rarefied air from an odds perspective in this lackluster field, Vidanta Vallarta profiles as well as any course on Tour for Stephan Jaeger's breakthrough win. Despite being a six-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, Jaeger's two-year stint at the top level has been characterized by a collection of capitulations. In fact, before Torrey Pines three weeks ago, Jaeger had entered the weekend inside the top 10 in four of his last eight starts on the PGA Tour. His final results in those tournaments? 14th, 25th 45th, and 18th.
Things look to be on the way up from Jaeger in regards to his weekend struggles, however, as the Munich native acquainted himself very well to the 36-hole lead around a daunting Torrey Pines. Despite facing some of the biggest pressure of his career around one of the most difficult venues on the entire schedule, Jaeger put together two solid rounds (73, 72) on Saturday and Sunday -- ultimately falling two shots short of champion Matthieu Pavon.
That experience will undoubtedly serve him well in a field full of players with similar concerns in clutch situations, and from a statistical standpoint, it's difficult to find anyone in this field better suited for Vidanta's specialized layout. Over his last 50 rounds, Jaeger rates out inside the top 10 in Total Driving, Weighted Proximity, Birdie or Better Percentage, and Par 5 Scoring, and has already recorded finishes of 18th and 15th over two starts at Vidanta Vallarta.
The lack of star power in this week's field means we're not likely to be getting a price break on the German international, but if Jaeger's winless narratives prevail in the marketplace, the course fit is too good to pass on at anything approaching 30-1.
Taylor Pendrith
Taylor Pendrith from WAY downtown to keep the match tied vs. Finau/Homa with 2 holes to play. 💪
📺: Golf Channel and @peacock
💻: https://t.co/edCLeeZUBd pic.twitter.com/oYYmDSuuQn— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) September 22, 2022
There are a multitude of promising power players I anticipate will populate the top of this week's odds board (Nicolai Hojgaard, Davis Thompson, Vincent Norrman, Ryan Fox), but I'll be looking first and foremost at Canadian Taylor Pendrith to carry on the recent momentum we've seen from the Great White North this season.
Not only does Pendrith rate out as one of the longest players in this field (sixth in Driving Distance), but he also presents one of the more well-balanced profiles of these bombers. Taylor rates out inside the top 30 in both my weighted proximity and baseline putting models, and has already experienced success at each of Mexico's two PGA Tour venues.
Pendrith had the second-best iron week of his entire season on debut here last year (+4.3 Strokes Gained), and recorded a T15 finish at El Cardonal in the Fall (another wide-open, driver-heavy, paspalum venue). He's also recorded four additional top-10 finishes over his last seven starts, and comes into this week on the back of a ninth-place finish at the vaunted Torrey Pines.
Like Jaeger before him, it's difficult to see books completely overlooking a player with his recent form sheet in this beleaguered field, but there are a few names I project to outgun his standing with more proven pedigrees. I value the two very similarly, and will once again be looking to pounce on any number bordering on 30-1.
Garrick Higgo
Getting hot on moving day 🔥
Another birdie for @Garrick_Higgo. pic.twitter.com/e4926jzotH
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 25, 2023
After a white-hot run through the summer of 2021 saw Garrick Higgo collect three wins in the span of five starts across Europe and the U.S., his supporters have been clamoring for a hint of the upside we saw out of the then 22-year-old South African. In the two and a half years since, Higgo hasn't given his fans a lot to cheer about, but a wide-open, distance-intensive venue like Vidanta might be just the backdrop he needs to flash that captivating talent.
Higgo is far from the most well-balanced player on the PGA Tour, but he does rate out as an elite option in a variety of my key metrics. He pounds the ball off of the tee (third in Driving Distance), and has recently straightened out the driver enough to rank fourth in this field in Total Driving. Higgo also possesses one of the hottest putters in this field: ranking seventh in SG: Putting over his last 50 rounds, and finds his way inside the top 30 in Par 5 Scoring, Birdie or Better Percentage, and Proximity from 175-200 yards.
When you look at the venues he won at over his hot stretch in 2021, they profile quite closely to the venue he'll face this week: coastal, driver-heavy courses where you've got ample room to spray the ball and plenty of chances to lean on your putter (Higgo's best historic weapon).
Of course, the sporadic nature of his recent results means I'm not exactly rushing to make Garrick Higgo a cornerstone of my weekly exposure, but if we do get prices deep in the triple digits, the young South African could well provide the last hint of championship pedigree in this beleaguered field.
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