Projecting Home Run Sleepers Using HR/FB Rate

June 11, 2014

Sam Nedimyer's analysis on using the sabermetrics stat HR/FB rate to project fantasy baseball home run sleepers. These MLB hitters are on many waiver wires still.

This is the first in a series of articles in which we will evaluate potential fantasy baseball sleepers by looking at deeper statistics and advanced sabermetrics. Today we are going to try and project four hitters that should see increased production in the home runs category during the hot summer months. If you are in need of HRs for your fantasy team, these hitters may still be available on the waiver wire of many leagues, or it shouldn’t be too hard to trade for them if they are already owned by a different team in your league. If they’re already on your team, consider yourself ahead of the game.

Tyler Flowers – (C, CHW)

Ownership: 13% Yahoo!, 6% ESPN

Flowers is already very close to being an everyday fantasy starter in all leagues, and is almost certainly a starter in all AL-Only and deep leagues already. For everyone else, even Yadier Molina and Jonathan Lucroy need to take days off, and Flowers can become your second catcher. Flowers hasn’t wowed anyone yet this season with his numbers - .263 BA, 5 HR, 17 RBI - and he usually bats in the bottom third of the lineup. But don’t count him out.

For starters, he’s batting in a solid offense so he’ll get his share of plate appearances and RBI chances. The White Sox are sixth in runs scored even with Jose Abreu having missed some time. Flowers also plays half of his games at the best hitter-friendly park outside of Colorado. Over the last four seasons (2010-2013), U.S. Cellular Field saw 137 HR for every 100 homers produced in an average MLB park.

This all bodes well for Flowers and his 25% HR/FB rate, which puts him 8^th in the majors out of all players with at least 100 plate appearances, sandwiched between Michael Morse and George Springer.  That’s some pretty good company. And much like a game of NBA Jam, Flowers is heating up. His 9.1% HR/FB rate in the first month of the season exploded to 33.3% in the month of May, and those rates usually go up during the summer months for all players. Flowers should hopefully see home run numbers between 15 and 20 by the end this season, which is very solid for a catcher.

Chris Carter – (1B / OF, HOU)

Ownership: 20% Yahoo!, 9% ESPN

Think of a right handed and younger version of Adam Dunn. Carter is striking out over 30% of the time, owns a .193 BA, and is hitting .234 on all batted balls in play. However if it’s home runs that you need for cheap, look no further than Carter.

His low batting average is mostly due to his 52.1% FB rate. His 15.9% HR/FB rate is 37^th of all players with qualifying plate appearances. If Carter maintains his fly ball rate and makes his projected 500 plate appearances, Carter could finish in the vicinity of 35 HR.

The good news for Carter and his fantasy owners is that of his 10 HR, 9 were hit down the left field line and the 10^th was a complete opposite field jack to right field. That trend automatically improves his chances of hitting for power at home, where it’s 315 down the left field line.  Still, his home run rates went down in May making it a little tougher on him to get to 30 on the year.  Twenty five long balls on the year sounds like a good floor for a prediction.

Lucas Duda – (1B / OF, NYM)

Ownership: 8% Yahoo!, 13% ESPN

Mets fans probably don’t want to hear, yet again, about the potential of Lucas Duda. But the numbers are in his favor to have a big summer. It’s no coincidence that Duda had a productive first month of the season, as 50% of all his batted balls were fly balls to coincide with his 15.4% HR/FB rate. Even after a sub-par May, Duda is just below his rates from last season in which he tied a career high with 15 HR.

The difference between this year and last year is that Duda is making contact at a more impressive rate. With a zone contact rate (number of times a batter makes contact with a pitch inside the strike zone) at 84.1%, up from 80.6% last season, Duda is making more contact with hittable pitches and that translates into more batted balls. Perhaps the only negative factor in Duda’s home run rate is playing at Citi Field, which only produces 84 HR for every 100 homers produced in an average MLB park. The humid weather in the summer should help him carry the ball over the right field wall in the coming months. And if not, he still possesses raw power to clear any park, as evidenced by his 431 foot shot on April 12. Given all of these factors, Duda should shatter his career high this year and reach 20-25 HR by the end of the season.

Jonathan Villar – (SS, HOU)

Ownership: 35% Yahoo!, 37% ESPN

Villar has been in a bit of slump lately, and has seen his numbers drop to a .200 AVG and .617 OPS. But that shouldn’t stop you from playing him in these next few months. Despite his decreased production, Villar has actually steadily increased his slugging and isolated power percentages. Of all his batted balls in play, 30.7% are going for fly balls, as compared to 14.1% from last season.

His 14.3% HR/FB rate puts him fourth on the list of all regular shortstops, sandwiched between Hanley Ramirez and Jhonny Peralta. Playing at Minute Maid Park might hurt his home run chances, especially considering his home runs have been sprayed: 1 pulled, 2 to center and 2 to the opposite field. Still, he’s hit more long balls at home than on the road which is a good sign, and if he can hit one to left or right-center in Houston, then he can hit one anywhere. Make no mistake, Villar is not a power hitter. However given the above factors, he may be capable of going on a home run tear in July and August, especially compared to other MLB shortstops. Hopefully Villar can max out at around 14-15 HR by the end of this season.