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Justin Carter evaluates which starting running backs could be potential busts in fantasy football heading into Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season.
Once upon a time, you could figure out which running backs to draft and play in fantasy by looking at a team's depth, seeing who the starting running back was, and then drafting that guy.
It was a simpler time. Depth charts made sense. Backup running backs were backup running backs. But football has changed. Depth charts can't be trusted.
Heading into Week 1, there is a handful of running backs listed as their team's starter who you really, really don't need to be drafting, adding off waivers, or rostering on your DFS team. Let's discuss who those running backs are.
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J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team
Let's start with the most unexpected news of depth chart SZN:
That's right, the first depth chart for the Washington Football Team lists J.D. McKissic as the team's starting running back.
Now, does that mean anything? My guess -- based on McKissic's history and the fact that he's leapfrogged Antonio Gibson after the Adrian Peterson release -- is that McKissic is a starter in name only, with Gibson taking on a larger role than he would have had with Peterson on the team and McKissic going from no role to a small role.
So, should we be interested in McKissic? Nah.
Literally everything before this depth chart release signaled that Gibson was taking over. McKissic is a receiving back whose best season as a runner was last year when he had 205 yards. He might be able to approximate a healthy Chris Thompson, which would give him upside in full PPR, but that probably won't happen because Gibson's college tape suggests that he's a better receiver than McKissic.
And when it comes to early-down work, Washington has the steady Peyton Barber on the roster. So that leaves McKissic...where, exactly? Plus, this offense isn't going to be very good, limiting the upside of all of their runners. So no, I'm not considering McKissic a must-have fantasy option now that he's technically Washington's starter.
Malcolm Brown, Los Angeles Rams
Brown is listed as the starting RB on the team's depth chart right now with Darrell Henderson Jr. second and Cam Akers third, which is the exact opposite order of how I value the three heading into this season.
Brown's fine. He's been a reliable backup for this team for the past three seasons and is entering his sixth year with the franchise. He had five touchdown runs last season, which is five-sixths of his career NFL touchdowns. He also rushed for 3.7 yards per carry and had two receptions. We know what Brown is, which is a guy you can turn to if you need someone to turn to.
But, Akers is the fantasy value here. I love his workout metrics:
That speed can be useful behind an offensive line that ranked 19th in adjusted line yards last season.
Akers can be a dynamic weapon for the Rams in a way that Brown won't be, so even if Malcolm Brown opens 2020 as the lead back, this is Akers's job, and it's not going to take long for him to show why he's the team's best option at the position.
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions
I still believe Kerryon Johnson can be a capable NFL running back, but I don't think it's going to happen for him in Detroit.
If it was, the team wouldn't have drafted D'Andre Swift, and then they wouldn't have signed Adrian Peterson.
Swift has three-down potential and can be both a physical runner and a receiving threat. He's the kind of running back you draft because you foresee him as the lead guy on your team, not a complementary piece.
But Swift's been sidelined by injury and his availability early in the year is in question. Good news for Johnson, right?
Nope. They signed veteran Adrian Peterson. Sure, Peterson's not nearly the back he used to be, but he's a trusty older guy who can still plow through a line. You don't sign Adrian Peterson to sit him on the bench, which means that we're probably just a few weeks away from a world where Peterson and Swift are getting almost all of the snaps in this backfield, with Johnson being used incredibly sparingly. If he was the real starter, this offseason would have gone much differently.
Sony Michel, New England Patriots
To be fair, Michel is the guy on this list I'd ignore the least because Damien Harris, who I expected some big things from, is on the IR right now. But the IR rules are different this year, with unlimited returns and just a three-week minimum stay on it. But the Patriots are also likely to use James White out of the backfield a lot, and quarterback Cam Newton should take some of the available carries on this team away from Michel.
To add to that, Michel has been disappointing so far in his NFL tenure. Last year, he ranked 54th among running backs in true yards per carry, 43rd in big run rate, 71st in production premium, and 114th in fantasy points per opportunity.
Oh my.
The metrics suggest that Michel is basically a below-replacement back, and he's playing on a team whose head coach has a short leash with struggling running backs. Michel might be the starter Week 1, but he's also very likely to be glued to the bench by Week 2. There are higher-upside players behind him. This role is probably not going to last.
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