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Another great week of football that saw comebacks, blowouts and even a tie. And now we're dealing with the first COVID outbreak in the NFL. Hopefully everyone is healthy and if any games get postponed, they will be played.
Favorites went 9-6-1 straight up in Week 3 and 9-7 against the spread. My best bets went 1-2 against the spread, survivor plays went 3-1 and avoids went 2-1 with the Bengals and Lions coming through. The Colts were the big play in survivor pools last week and they easily took care of business. The Chargers and Cardinals losing, and the Eagles tying, knocked out more than 30 percent of remaining entrants.
This week we have another full slate kicking off with the Broncos and Jets Thursday night.
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Survivor League Week 4
Teams favored by a touchdown or more in Week 4 per The Action Network (home team in caps); Ravens -13 @ WASHINGTON, RAMS -13 vs. Giants, BUCS -7.5 vs. Chargers, PACKERS -7.5 vs. Falcons, CHIEFS -7 vs. Patriots, 49ERS -7 vs. Eagles, Seahawks -6.5 @ DOLPHINS
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.
I also give out my three top plays against the spread. That can be found at the bottom of the column.
Top Survivor Picks for Week 4
Ravens -13.5 @ Washington
The Ravens were exposed by the best team in football. The Chiefs were able to stop the run and dare Lamar Jackson to try and throw to beat them, which he couldn't do. But the Ravens beat up on non-elite teams. Washington is a nice team with a good front-seven, but they won't be able to match the Ravens scoring output. I also love backing a team that's off a big loss on national television.
Ravens 38 - Washington 14
RAMS -13 vs. Giants
The Rams are off a really tough loss where they came back from a 28-3 deficit, to take a 32-28 lead and then were hosed on a defensive penalty on 4th-down when the ball was uncatchable. The Rams offense has been very good ranking third in yards per play. The Giants are 27th. The biggest edge though is the Rams will be able to sustain long drives; they rank first in third-down conversions and the Giants are dead last in opponent third-down conversions.
The Giants have no big-play capability. They have eight plays of 20 yards or more, bottom half in the league, while the Rams are third in the league with 17. The Giants can not throw 5-yard passes and think they'll win.
Rams 31 - Giants 13
PACKERS -7.5 vs. Falcons
How does a team recover from not one, but two straight losses after being up by 16 and 17 points late in the fourth quarter. Now they have to play the Packers on Monday night football with the 31st ranked pass defense. The Packers meanwhile rank sixth in passing yards per game. Aaron Rodgers is an MVP frontrunner through three games, and will be salivating over this matchup.
Packers 38 - Falcons 24
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid
CHIEFS -7.5 vs. Patriots
The way to beat Kansas City is to run the ball, go on long drives, and score touchdowns when in the red zone. New England is first in rushing yards per game, seventh in time of possession, and 18th in the red zone. The Patriots have the system to beat the Chiefs, but their defense will have to get off the field on third down. The Chiefs are first in converting on third down and the Patriots are seventh defensively. That will be the key to this game.
Chiefs 24 - Patriots 23
BUCS -7.5 vs. Chargers
It's really interesting to see the Chargers rank higher in yards per play than the Bucs. You'd think the Bucs would be a lot higher based on the fact they're averaging 27 points per game and the Chargers are averaging 17. Tampa's defense is second in opponent yards per play and should be able to hold the Chargers in check.
Tom Brady does not do well against a fierce pass rush and the Chargers Defense had that but are without pass-rusher Melvin Ingram. Still, 7.5 is too much.
Bucs 20 - Chargers 17
Seahawks -6.5 @ DOLPHINS
What makes me nervous about taking Seattle is that they're allowing 430 passing yards per game, last in the NFL, 80 yards more than the next team. They're also 29th in getting off the field on third down and 31st in opponent yards per play. I have no doubt Russell Wilson will have this offense humming along but their defense will keep the Dolphins in this game with a good chance to pull off the upset.
Dolphins 27 - Seahawks 24
Best Bets for Week 4
- Lions +4.5 vs. Saints - Drew Brees is really struggling to throw the ball down the field. The Lions finally have a two-dimensional offense and should be able to move the ball to cover this line.
- Browns +4.5 @ Cowboys - Dallas's defense has looked awful. Cleveland should be able to run and open up the passing game.
- Patriots +7.5 @ Chiefs - Notes above.
Running Totals
- Last week: 1-2
- 2020 season total: 4-6
- 2019 season total: 23-26-2
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