Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 13) - Targets and Avoids

Week 12 came and went with nary an upset. The biggest upset was the Washington Redskins beating the Lions as 4-point underdogs. The Panthers should have beaten their division rival Saints as 10-point dogs, but Joey Slye missed two extra points and a 28-yard field goal.

Survivor pools are desolate at this point in the year. Some pools have "restarted" or there are second-chance pools. This week there are several games with point-spreads of more than seven; Panthers -10 vs. Redskins, Chiefs -10 vs. Raiders, Eagles -9.5 at Dolphins, Cowboys -7 vs. Bills, and Saints -7 at Falcons. Thankfully, we also have a full slate of games with no more bye weeks anymore.

The teams I like against the spread will be italicized, with my three best bets against the spread able to be found on the bottom of the column.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!


Top Survivor Picks for Week 13

Panthers -10 vs. Redskins

When Carolina's offense is clicking, it's really hard to stop. The offense starts with Christian McCaffrey and Washington allows 137 rushing yards per game. The Redskins won't be able to keep pace with Carolina because Dwayne Haskins stinks and they average 13.1 points per game, worst in the league. They are also 29th in yards per play, and dead last in third-down conversion as well as touchdowns in the red zone.

Panthers 38 - Redskins 13


Eagles -9.5 @ Dolphins

The last time you could have picked the Eagles was in Week 5. If you didn't, now is the next best chance. I understand the Eagles offense has been non-existent but they'll be able to run, run and run all over Miami. They rank 31st in opponent rushing yards per game. Also, the Eagles Defense has been phenomenal their last three allowing the ninth-fewest yards yer play in that span. Miami's offense is the worst in the league in yards per play.

Eagles 24 - Dolphins 10


Bears -3 @ Lions

This is the opening game on Thanksgiving Day. Normally, I'd never advise anyone to take a team with an offense that averages 4.4 yards per play (tied for last with the Dolphins) but the Lions are 26th in opponent yards per play. However, the reason I'd take the Bears is that you have the fifth-ranked defense in opponent yards per play going against quarterback David Blough. That's right, Jeff Driskel probably will not play because of a hamstring injury so the undrafted rookie out of Purdue will get his first career start. The Bears Defense featuring Khalil Mack is not one you want to play against in your first start.

Bears 20 - Lions 9


Packers -6.5 vs. Giants

Like I said last week, a team needs two things to beat the Packers, put pressure on Aaron Rodgers, and be able to run the ball. The Giants are 28th in their last three games running the ball. Saquon Barkley has barely been heard from in those three games. In total he has had 88 rushing yards on 44 carries. Additionally, the Giants have recorded just four sacks in their last three games. Aaron Rodgers will have his time to throw against the 26th-ranked passing defense.

I also love the notion of backing a team who are off an embarrassing blowout loss on national television.

Packers 31 - Giants 14


Saints -7 @ Falcons

The Falcons are back to their normal selves after the Buccaneers rolled them Sunday while New Orleans narrowly escaped the Panthers. These two teams played two and a half weeks ago and the Falcons shocked the Saints. No two teams should be playing twice in that short of a span, and now the Saints have tape on what they did wrong and they'll right it Thursday night.

Another key facet to this game is Atlanta's offensive line has allowed the third-most quarterback hits while the Saints pass rush is tied for 10th in sacks.

Saints 31 - Falcons 21


Chiefs -10 vs. Raiders

Andy Reid is 17-3 off a bye in his career. Teams are 10-18 this season off a bye, but Reid has been so good, it shouldn't impact him.

The way to beat KC is to run the ball. Josh Jacobs has been amazing so far, but Oakland has only rushed for 86 yards on average the last three games, way down from their 122 season average. The other big thing with Oakland is Derek Carr in cold weather. He's 2-9 career in games under 50 degrees. Sunday in Kansas City will be a high of 40, low of 27 with swirling winds. Carr is in for a bad game just like the one he had Sunday in cold, windy New York.

Chiefs 31 - Raiders 13


Jets -3.5 vs. Bengals

The Jets are rolling. They've won three in a row and just gave up three points to the Raiders. The Bengals are 0-11, and are now going back to Andy Dalton as their quarterback in favor of Ryan Finley. It really doesn't matter who starts because the Jets Defense is allowing an impressively low 3.9 yards per play through their last three games, tied with 49ers for best in the league. In that span, the Bengals rank 26th. Cincy's offensive line is in the bottom half of the league while the Jets have 13 sacks in the last three games.

Sam Darnold being completely healthy and mono-free has elevated the Jets offense to 10th in the league through the last three games in terms of yards per play. The Bengals Defense is 32nd throughout the year. While the Jets offensive line is bad, the Bengals are 31st in sacks with just 16 the entire season. As I wrote before, the Jets have 13 sacks in the last three games.

Jets 27 - Bengals 16


Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Cowboys -7 vs. Bills

The Bills beat up on bad teams, and well the Cowboys do the same. Now both of these good bad teams face-off on Thanksgiving Day. You have the number one team in yards per play with Dallas against the number-three defense in Buffalo. The Bills' defense is also fifth in opponent third-down conversions. I expect a slug-fest and seven points are too much.

Cowboys 23 - Bills 20


The Rest

Colts -2.5 vs. Titans - It seems like every team in the AFC South has a roller-coaster of a season every year. The Titans had a great game Sunday against the Jaguars while the Colts had a bad one last Thursday night in Houston. Time for the Colts to bounce-back while the Titans play a letdown.

Steelers +2 vs. Browns - Devlin Duck Hodges gets the start in a massive revenge game against the Browns. These two teams played two weeks ago and that was when Myles Garrett socked Mason Rudolph with the quarterback's helmet.

Bucs +1 @ Jaguars - I want nothing to do with this game. How can you back either of these teams? Since I pick every game, I'll take Tampa and their high-scoring offense.

49ers +6 @ Ravens - This game should be at 4 p.m. because these are the two hottest teams in football. Six points is too much to give the 49ers and their pass rush.

Rams -3 @ Cardinals - Do I love backing teams off blowout embarrassing losses on national television? Absolutely! The Cardinals are off a bye and this season, teams off a bye are 10-18 straight up. Jared Goff looked awful Monday night but the Cardinals are 30th in opponent yards per play and dead last in opponent passing yards per game.

Broncos +2.5 vs. Chargers - How much worse can it get for the Broncos after their three-point showing Sunday in Buffalo? The Chargers are off a bye and that hasn't favored teams this year as I said in the games above.

Patriots -3 @ Texans - This is the Sunday night game. Bill Belichick will take DeAndre Hopkins out of the game just like the Patriots held Amari Cooper to zero catches Sunday. Deshaun Watson has been sacked eight times in the last three games and I expect New England to get to him. While New England's offense did not look good Sunday, they were without Mohamed Sanu and had a hampered Julian Edelman. But they'll get back to their basics come Sunday by running the ball. The Texans have allowed 168 rushing yards the last three weeks, second-most in the league.

Vikings +3  @ Seahawks - Both secondaries haven't looked good recently. In the last three games, Seattle is allowing 257 yards passing, 25th in the league, while Minnesota is 297 yards, ranking 30th. I expect a high-scoring game and because of that, I'd rather take the points.


Best Bets for Week 13

  • Panthers -10
  • Packers -6.5
  • Rams -3

Last week: 2-1

Season total: 18-17-1

More Football Analysis

More Recent Articles


Wide Receiver ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward his owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More

Biggest Busts of 2019: Quarterback

The 2019 NFL season is over, and it's time to look back on what happened. 2019 was a year where some quarterbacks -- Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen -- leaped up to the top of the fantasy charts, while other guys faded from where they were expected to perform. Today, I want to talk about three... Read More

Four and Out: Fantasy Outlooks for Divisional Round Losers

For the four teams that were eliminated in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, the offseason has begun. For many fantasy football owners, the days have already started counting down to next season. Owners in dynasty leagues have started to mull over their decisions.  How some guys perform in the playoffs can certainly alter... Read More

Quarterback ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward their owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More

Biggest Busts of 2019: Wide Receivers

After a very interesting season of fantasy football action, many owners were left with a bitter taste in their mouth from a few of the “elite” NFL wide receivers. While Michael Thomas dominated and Julio Jones was his usual reliable self, not all was good if you played it safe by taking a receiver early.... Read More

Quarterback Risers and Fallers: 2019 Season Review

This article will examine the biggest risers and fallers at the quarterback position, which proved to be the most impactful in fantasy leagues as is often the case. Of the top-25 players in fantasy this season, 18 of them played the QB position and none of the 18 scored less than 280 fantasy points on... Read More

XFL Fantasy Football Rankings (Preseason)

As of this writing, there is exactly one month until XFL regular-season action begins. On February 8, the latest upstart professional league will kickoff (again) with spring football. It goes without saying that we hope it goes better than the first time, back in 2001, and lasts longer than the AAF. Before you settle in... Read More

Wide Receiver Risers and Fallers: 2019 Season Review

We continue our series covering the biggest risers and fallers of 2019 with the wide receiver position. I'll look at both 2018 and 2019 statistical outcomes from every player, contrast their performances, calculate differences in each category and come up with the most prominent names going forward. This past season, receivers didn't dominate in fantasy,... Read More

2020 Early Sleepers and Draft Targets: Running Back

It is going to be almost impossible to win your fantasy football league in 2020 without a strong set of running backs, even in today’s pass-happy NFL. While quarterbacks and wide receivers have gained importance in fantasy football in recent years, building your fantasy roster around your running back corps is still one of the... Read More

Top Rebound Candidates for 2020

Is it way too early to be thinking about fantasy football for the 2020 season? Yes. Are we going to do it anyway? You bet we are. While coaches, coordinators, players, and rookies will change some things, you're still going to be able to get an idea of where certain players are going to be... Read More

Biggest Breakouts of 2019: Running Back

The 2019 fantasy football was filled with plenty of surprises across the board. Between guys like Devante Parker breaking out and David Johnson being a total dud, there was plenty of action that kept the fantasy season interesting. At the running back position, there were some very interesting young names that took off and broke... Read More

How the Titans-Ravens Upset May Alter Fantasy Outlooks

Saturday’s AFC Divisional Playoff Game between the Titans and Ravens may have been much more than just the biggest upset of the NFL season. It was also an event that might have quickly changed perceptions about two prominent players in the early part of 2020 fantasy football drafts and altered some thoughts about them as... Read More

Introducing the 2020 Rookie Wide Receiver Class

With an exciting and quite deep rookie class incoming, the wide receiver position is no exception. Not only is this class very talented at the top, but the wide receiver position is very deep and will have plenty of late-round talent. Alabama leads the way this year at the wide receiver position and there are... Read More

Introducing the 2020 Rookie Running Back Class

The 2020 class has been getting a ton of hype for some time now and as the offseason goes on, it’s only going to pick up. If you’ve gathered yourself some 2020 rookie picks, hold on to them because they’re only going to gain value. This year’s running back class is going to be very... Read More

Introducing the 2020 Rookie Quarterback Class

If you’re an avid dynasty football fan, you know very well that there is no off-season. For the average fantasy football fan, the season is over and won’t be talked about again until the NFL Draft, or even later. Dynasty owners know that this time of year can be just as exciting as any, and... Read More