RADIO
Scott Cullen provides his NFL DFS prop picks for November 6th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
Thursday night brings an AFC West matchup with a couple of teams on the brink. The Los Angeles Chargers are 4-5 but have won back-to-back games and just delivered a stellar defensive performance against Green Bay last week. The Chargers’ five losses have all been by a touchdown or less so it’s not unreasonable to suggest that they could be better than their sub.-500 record would indicate.
The Oakland Raiders are 4-4 and while the defense has been a problem, the Raiders offense has been clicking. Rookie running back Josh Jacobs is leading the way and the improved running game seems to be helping quarterback Derek Carr.
Can the Raiders keep pace with the Chargers? Will the Raiders Defense be able to keep the Chargers in check?
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L.A. CHARGERS-OAKLAND
OVER/UNDERS
Philip Rivers OVER 300.5 PASSING YARDS – That’s a big number to cover but Rivers is averaging 289.9 passing yards per game and the Raiders are allowing a league-high 297.5 passing yards per game. The Silver and Black can’t generate pressure on the quarterback and Rivers had topped 300 yards in five of nine games this season.
Derek Carr UNDER 275.5 PASSING YARDS – It says something about the improvement of the Raiders passing game for this number to be in play for Carr. In his first five games, the Raiders quarterback averaged 223.4 passing yards per game, leading a pedestrian offense, but in the past three games, Carr is suddenly averaging 289.0 yards per game. The emergence of tight end Darren Waller and rookie wide receiver Hunter Renfrow has given Carr more to work with and yet the Chargers are allowing a modest 208.7 passing yards per game so as much as the Raiders’ passing game has improved, it’s still asking a lot to put up those numbers against the Chargers.
Josh Jacobs OVER 82.5 RUSHING YARDS – Where the Raiders might be able to gain an edge on the Los Angeles defense is the running game. The Chargers have surrendered 114.1 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry, which are both a little better than league average. That’s still a decent matchup for Jacobs, the star rookie who has gone over 100 yards three times in the past four games and has gone over 82 yards in five of nine games this season.
Hunter Henry OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS – In four games since returning from injury, the Chargers tight end has averaged 6.3 receptions for 82 yards per game, making him a valuable target for Philip Rivers. Again, facing the Raiders’ soft pass defense leaves plenty of opportunity for Henry to grab six or more passes, as he has three times in the past four games.
RAPID FIRE
Josh Jacobs -32.5 rushing yards vs. Melvin Gordon – Oakland’s run defense is strong and while Gordon erupted for 80 rushing yards last week, that was the first game of the season in which he had even more than 40 yards. If Jacobs can push 100 yards that might be too much for Gordon, who still shares time in the Los Angeles backfield with Austin Ekeler and those extra carries should work in Jacobs’ favor.
Keenan Allen +0.5 receptions vs. Hunter Henry – Strangely, the Chargers have steered the offense away from their number one wide receiver. Over the past six games, Allen has averaged a mediocre 4.2 receptions per game and if he sticks to that average, it would be relatively manageable for Henry to cover that line. However, facing Oakland’s porous secondary is a prime opportunity for Allen to get back on track and it makes him an appealing underdog in this matchup.
Mike Williams -4.5 receiving yards vs. Darren Waller – While the Chargers have not been using Allen as much they did previously, some of that extra attention has gone to Williams, a big-play threat who has averaged 74.6 receiving yards per game in the past five games. Waller is a big part of the Raiders passing game, with two 100-yard games this season, but he’s also caught a total of four passes for 63 yards in the past two games.
