Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

NFL DFS Prop Picks for 10/6/19 - Monkey Knife Fight


Four weeks into the National Football League season, trends are emerging, both in terms of individual offensive performance and in terms of how defenses fare against a particular position. Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Miami are each allowing more than 300 passing yards per game, and the Dolphins offer the added bonus of allowing an average of three passing touchdowns per game.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Carolina Panthers are the only team in the league allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game, while Denver, Green Bay, and New England range between 200 and 210 passing yards allowed per game.

Those are just a part of the calculations when coming up with expectations for weekly production. Here are some angles to consider for Week Five props on Monkey Knife Fight.

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'RBNFL19'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 

 

STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Tom Brady UNDER 289.5 PASSING YARDS – The Patriots are heavy favorites at Washington and deservedly so, but that doesn’t mean Brady has to be the one to go off. After being held to 150 passing yards at Buffalo last week, TB12 is averaging 265.3 passing yards per game through the first four weeks and Washington is allowing 259.5 passing yards per game. Needing 290 for the over is a little much.

Deshaun Watson UNDER 273.5 PASSING YARDS – The Texans’ passing game has not been able to get on track just yet. Wastson is averaging 234.5 passing yards per game and the Falcons have surrendered 222.5 per game, so needing 274 for the over is a steep hill to climb.

Carson Wentz OVER 271.5 PASSING YARDS – Although the Eagles quarterback has averaged a modest 240.8 passing yards per game early this season, he gets to go against a Jets squad that is giving up 299.7 passing yards per game thus far. It’s a mismatch and one that the Eagles should be happy to exploit.

Kyler Murray OVER 259.5 PASSING YARDS – Murray’s average of 267.8 passing yards per game is a bit inflated because of a full overtime in Week One against Detroit and the Bengals, for all of their flaws, have allowed just 241 passing yards per game but if this game is close – and it should be – then the Cardinals will likely need to keep throwing the ball so Murray should put up some yardage.

Matt Ryan OVER 303.5 PASSING YARDS – While the Falcons have been struggling on their way to a 1-3 record, all that losing is giving Matty Ice plenty of opportunity to throw the ball and he has averaged 331.3 passing yards per game. The Texans are allowing 283.3 passing yards per game, which is enough to like Ryan on the over again this week.

Jameis Winston OVER 289.5 PASSING YARDS – After a couple of mediocre weeks to start the season, Winston has hit his stride, throwing for 765 yards in the past two games. He has the personnel, including wideouts Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, to put up big numbers and the Saints Defense has allowed 295 passing yards per game.

Christian McCaffrey OVER 85.5 RUSHING YARDS – The Panthers give McCaffrey a heavy workload and he has averaged 102.8 rushing yards per game, going for more than 90 in three of four games.

RAPID FIRE

Michael Thomas -0.5 receptions vs. Tyler Boyd – Both receivers have slowed down after a couple of big weeks to start the season. Even so, Thomas is averaging 8.5 catches per game, compared to 6.8 per game for Boyd. Thomas also gets to face a Bucs secondary that has allowed a league-high 16.3 receptions by wide receivers through the first four weeks.

Julio Jones 7.5 receiving yards vs. Mike Evans – Kept under wraps by Tennessee last week, Jones is due for a bounce-back performance.

FANTASY CHALLENGE

The early slate offers premier running backs so why not take Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook and enjoy that production? McCaffrey and Kamara were two of the top picks in fantasy this season and Cook has emerged as a big producer, especially with the Minnesota passing game in shambles.

 

STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Dak Prescott UNDER 263.5 PASSING YARDS – The question is whether the new Cowboys passing attack can handle the Packers Defense. Prescott has put up 285.8 passing yards per game this season but the Packers defense has been stingy, allowing just 207.8 passing yards per game. The advantage for the Cowboys may come in the running game, which could mean less Prescott usage.

Joe Flacco OVER 248.5 PASSING YARDS – There is not a lot to like about Flacco and the Broncos but he is averaging 269 passing yards per game and faces a Chargers team surrendering 241.5 passing yards per game. Call it half-hearted, if you must, but take the over.

Philip Rivers OVER 283.5 PASSING YARDS – On one hand, Rivers is averaging a career-high 313.5 passing yards per game and, on the other, the Broncos are allowing just 206.8 passing yards per game. Of course, the Broncos are losing so much that opponents don’t need to throw but here’s thinking that this game will be competitive and that will keep Rivers chucking it downfield.

Aaron Rodgers UNDER 273.5 PASSING YARDS – After three uninspiring weeks, Rodgers did bust out for 422 passing yards at Philadelphia last week. That looked like vintage Aaron Rodgers but that hasn’t been his standard lately and the Cowboys Defense is allowing 241.5 passing yards per game.

RAPID FIRE

Keenan Allen -1.5 receptions vs. Amari Cooper – Allen is much more of a fixture in the Chargers attack, averaging 8.5 receptions per game through four weeks, and that includes just five after they called off the dogs against Miami last week. Cooper is a contributor but has averaged 5.8 receptions per game.

Ezekiel Elliott -27.5 rushing yards vs. Aaron Jones – With the expectation that the Cowboys might find it more challenging to pass against the Packers, Elliott is the much safer play than Jones, who has been held under 40 yards rushing in three of four games this season.

FANTASY CHALLENGE

Doubling down on the Rapid Fire picks, ride Zeke, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler for the fantasy challenge. Ekeler should still get the most action for the Chargers, even with Melvin Gordon returning to action.

 

 

 

More Weekly DFS Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Conference Championships Matchups Analysis

Welcome to our NFL Conference Championships matchups analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering both of the AFC and NFC contests from the Sunday slate, helping you make the best decisions for your DFS contests this weekend. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries... Read More


Conference Championships Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Dynasty Players to Sell in 2020

Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano share their top sell candidates for dynasty football leagues in the 2020 fantasy football preseason. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210,... Read More


Running Back ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, a sure-fire player is expected to reward his owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they end up as a season-long dud, though,... Read More


Biggest Surprises of 2019: Tight End

The 2019 NFL season was anything but predictable. I mean, the Tennessee Titans made the AFC title game! Andrew Luck retired right before the season! [Insert one of many, many other things here, because all lists need three items but I couldn't decide between all the possible third options.] One position where things at the... Read More


Wide Receiver ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward his owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Biggest Busts of 2019: Quarterback

The 2019 NFL season is over, and it's time to look back on what happened. 2019 was a year where some quarterbacks -- Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen -- leaped up to the top of the fantasy charts, while other guys faded from where they were expected to perform. Today, I want to talk about three... Read More


Four and Out: Fantasy Outlooks for Divisional Round Losers

For the four teams that were eliminated in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, the offseason has begun. For many fantasy football owners, the days have already started counting down to next season. Owners in dynasty leagues have started to mull over their decisions.  How some guys perform in the playoffs can certainly alter... Read More


Quarterback ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward their owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Biggest Busts of 2019: Wide Receivers

After a very interesting season of fantasy football action, many owners were left with a bitter taste in their mouth from a few of the “elite” NFL wide receivers. While Michael Thomas dominated and Julio Jones was his usual reliable self, not all was good if you played it safe by taking a receiver early.... Read More


Quarterback Risers and Fallers: 2019 Season Review

This article will examine the biggest risers and fallers at the quarterback position, which proved to be the most impactful in fantasy leagues as is often the case. Of the top-25 players in fantasy this season, 18 of them played the QB position and none of the 18 scored less than 280 fantasy points on... Read More


XFL Fantasy Football Rankings (Preseason)

As of this writing, there is exactly one month until XFL regular-season action begins. On February 8, the latest upstart professional league will kickoff (again) with spring football. It goes without saying that we hope it goes better than the first time, back in 2001, and lasts longer than the AAF. Before you settle in... Read More


Wide Receiver Risers and Fallers: 2019 Season Review

We continue our series covering the biggest risers and fallers of 2019 with the wide receiver position. I'll look at both 2018 and 2019 statistical outcomes from every player, contrast their performances, calculate differences in each category and come up with the most prominent names going forward. This past season, receivers didn't dominate in fantasy,... Read More


2020 Early Sleepers and Draft Targets: Running Back

It is going to be almost impossible to win your fantasy football league in 2020 without a strong set of running backs, even in today’s pass-happy NFL. While quarterbacks and wide receivers have gained importance in fantasy football in recent years, building your fantasy roster around your running back corps is still one of the... Read More


Top Rebound Candidates for 2020

Is it way too early to be thinking about fantasy football for the 2020 season? Yes. Are we going to do it anyway? You bet we are. While coaches, coordinators, players, and rookies will change some things, you're still going to be able to get an idea of where certain players are going to be... Read More