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Scott Cullen provides his MLB DFS prop picks for April 22nd, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy baseball advice.
Thursday offers a lighter schedule in Major League Baseball but there are always opportunities to play contests and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
After a couple of early afternoon contests, there are six games in the evening, split between Main Games and Night Games on Monkey Knife Fight’s Star Shootout contests.
The most compelling matchup of the day goes late, with the San Diego Padres sending rookie Ryan Weathers to the bump at the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have Walker Buehler on the mound. That is a battle between teams with legitimate World Series aspirations.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - MAIN GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Alex Cobb LESS THAN 6.5 STRIKEOUTS
The veteran Angeles right-hander does not throw hard and, prior to this season, had a low strikeout rate. He has 17 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings this season, which could make you question whether the end times are near, but he is also going up against a Houston Astros lineup that has the lowest home strikeout rate (16.7%) in the major leagues this season.
Nick Pivetta LESS THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
Boston’s starting pitcher has 14 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings through three starts this season so the question may be whether he can go deep enough into the game to be counted on for at least six strikeouts. He matches up with a Seattle Mariners team that tends to make contact, their 23.0% road strikeout rate is the eighth lowest in MLB.
Cristian Javier LESS THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
The Astros’ second-year starter has 11 strikeouts in 8 2/3 innings after two starts this season so it is not a question of whether he can miss bats, it’s more about whether he can go deep enough into the game. The Astros are at home against a Los Angeles Angels team that can do some damage at the plate and their 23.6% road strikeout rate is lower than MLB average.
J.D. Martinez MORE THAN 3.5 MKF FANTASY POINTS
Martinez has been an absolute beast at the plate this season and is averaging 5.1 MKF fantasy points per game at Fenway Park. He goes up against the Seattle Mariners, who have Justin Dunn on the mound and he has been fine but is not likely to lock down Martinez.
Xander Bogaerts LESS THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS
While Bogaerts is off to a strong start, which includes a .409 on-base percentage at home, he has reached base multiple times only five times in 11 games and his relatively low exit velocity does suggest he is likely looking at some regression.
RAPID FIRE
Mike Trout -0.5 MKF fantasy points vs. Mitch Haniger
Haniger is off to a great start, hitting .315 with a .909 OPS, but he is going against the guy who has been consistently the best hitter in baseball for most of the past decade and he’s rocking a 1.237 OPS this season. Trout it is.
STAR SHOOTOUT - NIGHT GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Walker Buehler LESS THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
The Dodgers pitcher has been very effective early in the season, with a 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in three starts, but he has not been missing bats, recording 12 strikeouts in 18 innings. Take that relatively low strikeout rate and pair it with a San Diego Padres lineup that has the lowest road strikeout rate (15.3%) and it does not seem like a game in which Buehler starts racking up Ks.
Manny Machado LESS THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS
Even though Machado has a .375 road on-base percentage and a .369 OBP against right-handed pitchers, he has reached base multiple times on three occasions in seven games this season. Facing a top-quality starter like Buehler makes it even less likely that Machado reaches at least twice.
Fernando Tatis Jr. LESS THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
San Diego’s star shortstop has missed time with a dislocated shoulder but even when he has been in the lineup, he is not driving the ball the way he normally would and has 13 total bases in 11 games. Again, facing a quality pitcher like Buehler should make it even less likely that Tatis erupts for a big game.
Aaron Sanchez LESS THAN 15.5 PITCHING OUTS
While Sanchez has been quite effective in his first three starts for the Giants, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, he also has yet to go more than five innings in a start so it’s fair to be skeptical that he breaks through that threshold against Miami tonight.
Mike Yastrzemski LESS THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
Yaz is scuffling a bit to start this season and has had particular trouble with left-handed pitching, going 3-for-22 and slugging .182 against southpaws. He is up against the Miami Marlins and left-handed starter Daniel Castano so not his most favorable matchup.
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