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Casey Wilson's MLB betting picks for MLB team futures bets and predictions in the 2023 playoffs. His free baseball betting picks for World Series winners and more.
We have made it. October baseball is the best kind of baseball. This month is by far and away my favorite sports month of the year. There is nothing like playoff baseball. If you have been to a playoff baseball game, the atmosphere is by far and away the best of any sporting event. I have been fortunate enough to attend many playoff games here in Cleveland, including two games in the 2016 World Series against the Cubs. I have been to Cavs playoff games and Browns (LOL), and the atmosphere at a playoff baseball game is unparalleled.
We have an incredible postseason on the horizon, and the format with the three-game wild card series makes it even more fun for the fans. We have four great series to start us off, and in my opinion, the four best teams in baseball are waiting in the wings, as they should be. We have an opportunity to see the Phillies and the Braves match up in round two and what could be an incredible NLCS between the Braves and Dodgers after that. We will have the opportunity to see if the youth of the Orioles and their astonishing season can translate to the postseason and knock off the defending World Champions in the Houston Astros. Can there be another Cinderella like the 2022 Phillies and make a run to the World Series?
Today, we will discuss my current bets on my MLB playoff futures, focusing on team futures. I will first talk about my Wild Card Props, including my winners and an over in games played. I have placed a few of my conference and World Series winners already. We will cover that and determine if there is still value in the current market and how it stands with some of those bets. I also have a World Series forecast bet at +600 I just placed. I will return for our betting article tomorrow, breaking down Tuesday's games.
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Wild Card Props, Winners and Specials
Philadelphia Phillies to beat the Miami Marlins (-180 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The defending National League Champions find themselves in the wild-card round for the second year. This time, they will square off against the Miami Marlins in a three-game series in Philly. The two NL East foes played 13 times this season, with the Marlins winning the series seven to six. The Phillies went 90-72 this season, and we’re tremendous at home with a 49-32 record. The Marlins went 84-77 but were 38-42 on the road.
The Phillies will send Zach Wheeler to the bump game one. Wheeler went 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a 26.9% K%. Since August 1, he is 5-1 with a 3.36 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and a 25.0% K%. Wheeler had a 2.78 ERA in his six postseason starts last season and has plenty of experience pitching on the big stage. He will square off against Jesus Luzardo in game one. Luzardo, since August 1, is 2-4 with a 4.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 26.9% K%. Luzardo has a 5.91 ERA in his brief postseason experience with Oakland.
We will get a matchup between Aaron Nola and Braxton Garrett in game two. Nola went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 25.5% K%. He has been electric at home, pitching to a 3.29 ERA. Garrett has been excellent this season for the Marlins. He went 9-7 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 23.7% K%. Garrett will pitch in his first-ever postseason game when he gets the ball in game two.
A case study on pitching fWAR (1/5):
— Henry Thuss (@HenryThuss) October 2, 2023
2023 pitching fWAR leader: Zach Wheeler (6.0)
2022 pitching fWAR leader: Aaron Nola (6.3)
Both have a positive ERA-FIP, meaning they are under performing their expected stats.
The Phillies have handled southpaws well throughout the season. They have 108 wRC+, .333 wOBA, and a .450 SLG against the split this season. Since August 1, they have had a 122 wRC+, a .354 wOBA, and a .481 SLG. They will get lefties in both matchups here to start the series. The Marlins will face two elite righties and have struggled at the plate a bit this season. They own a 92 wRC+, .309 wOBA, and a .402 SLG on the season against righties.
The Phillies are built for the postseason. They have experience on their roster from their World Series run last season. They have star power and an offense that can hit home runs and pressure the defense. They have two legitimate aces in games one and two who have pitched on the big stage. I love the Phillies to win this series and not only win but sweep. I will be betting them on DraftKings to win the series at -180, but I will also be betting them to win the series 2-0. You can bet that result on DraftKings at +180, which I recommend dabbling in.
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 2.5 games (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Twins and the Blue Jays is one of two matchups I can see going either way in the Wild Card round. The Twins are the winners from the worst division in baseball, coming from the AL Central. The Blue Jays played in one of the toughest divisions in baseball but have been highly underwhelming all season. This is the series where we will find the best pitching matchups. The starting pitching in this series is top-notch between Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt.
The Twins won the AL Central and went 87-75 to achieve that goal. They were 47-34 at home. The Blue Jays came in third in the AL East but had a better record than the Twins, going 89-73. They were road warriors going 46-35 outside of Canada. When we dig into the underlying numbers, you will see why only two wins separated these teams.
At the plate, the Blue Jays have a 107 wRC+, .323 wOBA, and a .416 SLG. The Twins on the season have a 109 wRC+, .327 wOBA, and a .429 SLG. On the mound, the Blue Jays have a 4.02 xFIP, 3.79 ERA, and a 25.0% K%. The Twins have a 3.94 x FIP, 3.87 ERA, and a 25.9% K%. The two teams are deadlocked in almost every statistical category.
I love taking the over 2.5 games here because of how evenly matched these two teams are. If I had to pick, I believe the Blue Jays have the upper hand because the Twins struggle to put the ball in play. This is huge in a three-game set where one run could decide all three games. I think playing at home is also a considerable factor for the Twins. Playing in front of your fans in the playoffs makes this a complete coin flip for me. I love the chances of these games playing deadlock, even into the late innings of game three, and that is where I'm putting my money.
Conference Winners, World Series Winners, and Specials
I want to open up this section by saying that the odds are low now that we have reached the playoffs. Getting your numbers a while ago would have been essential if you planned to get World Series or Conference winners. I have placed a few bets here, and I will provide you with my numbers and give you an idea if I would still bet on the current market.
My World Series pick, just like everyone else, is the Atlanta Braves. This is one of the best teams of all time, which we will get into here shortly. This team is better than the Braves teams we saw in the 90s with Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Chipper Jones, and company. I have this number at +800, now posted on DraftKings at +310. I think there is a slight value at that line if you don’t have any Braves shares, and they are my pick to win the whole thing, so I am okay with still betting at the market price.
Ozuna’s 40th allowed the Braves to set one incredible record and match match another while celebrating their great regular season yesterday https://t.co/akyheh0U4K
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) October 2, 2023
The other World Series winner, I bet, is the Los Angeles Dodgers. I have used my Wednesday no-sweat bet on DraftKings over the last several weeks on the Dodgers winning the World Series to hedge my Braves bet. I think one of these two teams will make the World Series, and we will see them finally meet in the NLCS this season. What a series that would be. They are at +450 on most sites, which I have been betting them at. If picking one or the other, I would slam the Braves at +310 compared to the Dodgers.
My last future bet for Conference and World Series winners is the Houston Astors to win the American League at +750. I admit this was one of my luckiest bets of the season, but you ride it when you have a feel. About two weeks ago, I cashed out my Rangers to win the American League bet earlier in the season and tripled my money. I took that profit and put it on the Astors to win the American League when they were tied with the Mariners going into Seattle for the last Wild Card spot. I lucked into them winning the division, and now they are the favorite to win the American League at +185, and the Rangers are at +750. Sometimes, it's better to be lucky. I would not touch this at this number.
I do have one bet here that I would recommend, even two if you like the Astros to win the American League. These bets can be found on most books, but you may have to shop some lines as some don't offer the markets. Here's my official bet for the playoffs.
Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves to reach the World Series (+600, BetMGM)
This is my official World Series picks for the 2023 playoffs. I even have a future of the Atlanta Braves to beat the Houston Astros straight forecast at +3500. That bet is now at +1000, and I still love its value. These two teams are the clear favorites and are leaps and bounds better than the other teams in the playoffs. Straight forecasts are the way to go this late in betting futures if you want value.
The Atlanta Braves went 104-58 and had the best record in baseball. We also hit that future from my initial article at the start of the season at +800. They will have home-field advantage, although, based on their record, it doesn't matter as they went 52-29 at home and on the road this season. This team is deadly at the plate. They have historically been one of the best offenses of all time. To put that into perspective, they hit the most home runs ever in a season with 307. They set the all-time SLG mark at .501 SLG in a single season. The lineup is loaded, and they pressure you on the base paths.
Their pitching staff is led by arguably the best arm in the National League, Spencer Strider. Strider went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a 36.8% K%. In a must-win game, he can beat anyone and is the guy I would want on my side. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are both currently on the IL. This could be a big question mark for the Braves, but Bryce Elder has been great with a 12-4 record and a 3.63 ERA. I believe Fried will return for the playoffs, which would be huge for the Braves. The only other question mark is the draw. Most likely, for them to win a World Series, they will have to beat the defending NL champs in the Phillies, then the Dodgers, and then whoever wins the AL, in my opinion, the Astros. This is not an easy task by any means.
The Braves are dealing with a few injuries to key starting pitchers as they prepare for the Postseason.@jonmorosi has the latest on Charlie Morton and Max Fried on #MLBCentral ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/kmc6Zfli2K
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) September 25, 2023
The Astros are red hot at the right time. They are completely healthy. For some reason, this team under Dusty Baker always finds their stride at the right time and gets back to full strength when it matters most. The defending champions have one of the best rotations in baseball, a loaded offense, and, in my opinion, the best postseason manager. Winning the AL West gave them the better side of the bracket, and of all the teams in the postseason, this one has the most experience.
They possess a two-headed monster at the top of the rotation in Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. Valdez is 7-2 in the postseason with a 3.41 ERA. He was lights out in the postseason run last year with a 1.44 ERA and an 11.88 K/9. He is built for the big moment. Verlander has made 35 appearances in the postseason, the most by any pitcher on current rosters. He is 16-11 with a 3.64 ERA and 230 strikeouts. This is why the Astros brought him back in, and he has already made two big-time starts in his last two outings with the season on the line.
40 year old Justin Verlander in his biggest start of the year:
— MLB Metrics (@MLBMetrics) September 26, 2023
8 IP
3 H
0 ER
1 BB
8 K
96 pitches
Legendary stuff. pic.twitter.com/FfOgARXlIo
The lineup is healthy and anchored by Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Yordan Alvarez. Between the four of them, they have appeared in 276 postseason games. This team is clicking at the right time and is primed to make another run to the World Series to defend their title. I am very nervous that I don't have any futures of them winning it all because, behind the Braves, they have the best roster in the postseason.
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