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IDP fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 17 of 2024. Chris looks at IDP streamers, fades, matchups, and starts/sits for NFL defensive players.
Player health must be a priority. The fact that the NFL and fans understand this is a good thing. We have seen the NFL’s violent nature ruin too many lives already. As a result, the league should do everything it can to avoid what happened to players like Junior Seau.
With that said, how the NFL handles concussion precautions isn’t always made clear to the public. An example of this is the league seemingly heightening the standards before someone clears protocol, without that change being announced. While increased caution for head injuries is good, it seems odd the NFL hasn’t outright stated it has changed its standards.
The proof of this change seems clear when you consider the significant spike in time players spent in concussion protocol this year. Before 2024, Tua Tagovailoa-like cases seemed to be exceedingly rare. This year, Malik Nabers, Cedric Tillman, Romeo Doubs, and Jaquan Brisker all missed multiple weeks or months before clearing protocol … with some still in it.
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Casual IDP Streamers and Fades
Stream: Ivan Pace Jr., Minnesota Vikings
Ivan Pace Jr., a frequent name in this space, has been on IR for four weeks. Reports now indicate the Vikings plan to activate him this week and expect him available for their contest with the Packers this weekend. That's good news for those in need of a high-ceiling LB3 option.
Ivan Pace Jr. does hilarious things on film. He’s like a bumper car fueled by Red Bull. pic.twitter.com/r7GxN3a46y
— Alec Lewis (@alec_lewis) November 19, 2024
As we have repeatedly discussed this year, Pace can be risky. This is particularly true with the diminutive tackler coming back from injury. However, his roster rate dropped by over 50% with his stint on IR. That means he's readily available in most IDP leagues. If you need a lottery ticket for your third linebacker spot, he's a worthy candidate.
Stream: Nik Bonitto, DL/LB, Denver Broncos
Plenty of people are already relying on Bonitto. He’s been a superstar this season, which is exactly what we said his potential was coming out of Oklahoma. That said, Bonitto is still just the 30th-most-rostered DL in fantasy and was used in only 11% of leagues last weekend.
While it is tough to trust start/roster numbers this late in the year, the long and short of it is most people don’t consider Bonitto on the same level as T.J. Watt and others. However, the Broncos’ top edge-rusher tops all those elite options this week. The former Sooner is our top overall fantasy DL in Week 17.
The reason we rate Bonitto so highly is that he has a significantly better matchup than any other top-rated DL this week. The Bengals are one of the most pass-oriented offenses in the NFL, and their pass-blockers rate third worst. Those two factors combine to create a premium matchup for Bonitto.
Fade: Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, DLs, Houston Texans
Feel free to deploy these talented edge-rushers as DL2 options this week. However, their matchup is bad enough to keep them out of our DL1 rankings.
The Ravens surrender the fourth-fewest sacks per game this season. Their line has surrendered just six total sacks from the edge all year, plus they average just north of four pressures off the corner per game. Both of those rates are among the five best in the NFL.
Fade: Germaine Pratt, LB, Cincinnati Bengals
Pratt has been one of the better bargains from this year's waiver class. He was widely available to start the season, but he has outproduced expectations with 8.7 fantasy points per game. That is why he is currently the ninth-most-rostered LB in fantasy. There are better options during this championship weekend, though.
On the season, Pratt has just three forced turnovers and zero sacks. That means a good deal of his production comes from tackles. However, he has just three double-digit tackle performances this year. That means that Pratt rarely, if ever, wins you a fantasy contest or dominates his position. Rather, he is the guy who never costs you a contest.
Unfortunately, this “safe” profile can cost fantasy managers a championship. If you’re in the title game and are favored to lose, Pratt may not be your guy. Instead, you should be looking at players with higher ceilings but lower roster rates like Jamien Sherwood, E.J. Speed, or Daiyan Henley.
Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades
Stream: Patrick Surtain II, DB, Denver Broncos
The 75th-most-rostered DB in fantasy, Surtain is an asset we usually pass over. He is so gifted that opposing teams avoid him like the plague, so we do, too.
There are exceptions to every rule, though, and Surtain is getting one of those exceptions this week.
Your 2024 Defensive Player of the Year... Patrick Surtain II pic.twitter.com/YDxzLlAqbK
— Frankie Abbott (@FrankiesFilm) December 16, 2024
Denver gets the Bengals in Week 17, meaning Ja'Marr Chase is on the docket. It’s a guarantee that Surtain will shadow Chase almost all game, perhaps even following him into the slot. That means that Surtain should see a majority of the 11 targets Chase has averaged since the beginning of October.
Stream: Talanoa Hufanga, DB, San Francisco 49ers
It’s a good week to need a DB in fantasy, especially in deeper leagues where the demand is higher, but options remain on waivers. One of those options is Hufanga, who is the 109th-most-rostered DB in fantasy. That rate is low, likely fueled by his recent injuries and inconsistent production in limited snaps.
The good news is that Hufanga has averaged nearly five fantasy points and a majority of San Francisco’s defensive snaps since returning from injury. Detroit should play into that usage, as it averages the second-most pass attempts since Week 13 and the third-most offensive plays on the season.
An additional factor to consider here is the “payback narrative.” San Francisco beat Detroit in the NFC Championship last season, but plenty of Lions think they were the better team. Do not be shocked if Dan Campbell and company want to turn this into a high-volume statement game.
Fade: Jadeveon Clowney, DL, Carolina Panthers
Despite averaging just 4.2 fantasy points per game this season, Clowney was the 35th-most-rostered DL and the 32nd-most-started DL in fantasy last weekend. At no point in the season has his production merited that kind of faith.
This week, Clowney faces the Buccaneers. We have told you in this space many times that the Bucs are incredibly stingy against opposing edge-rushers. Their starting offensive tackles are credited with allowing just two sacks and 27 pressures all year. The team as a whole has allowed just 41 pressures off the edge, which is the lowest in the NFL.
Fade: Trent McDuffie, DB, Kansas City Chiefs
Fantasy’s 35th-most-rostered DB, McDuffie has seen his roster rate go up 15% in the past two weeks. The only explanation for this would be that he has secured two interceptions and six PDs in the past three weeks. Otherwise, not much would explain his rise in usage or his place on more fantasy teams than Mike Sainristil.
While McDuffie is typically a solid source of tackles, his ball production over the past three weeks accounts for a whopping 23.8% of his fantasy points this season. Such production will be hard against Russell Wilson, who is tied for the second-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate and attempts the seventh-fewest passes per game.
Even with George Pickens back, this feels like a low-volume affair. Better options available in more leagues include Sainristil, Ugo Amadi, and Jeremy Chinn.
Defenders Worth Stashing … in Dynasty
Let's address the obvious before we get to our weekly defender adds/stashes.
With fantasy leagues entering their final week or two, there isn't much need for stash recommendations in anything but dynasty leagues. Therefore, the recommendations below are aimed at long-term dynasty targets who are readily available on waivers.
Renardo Green, DB, San Francisco 49ers
Green, an aggressive and handsy rookie, saw a spike in usage starting in Week 6. Since then, the Florida State product has averaged an impressive 6.8 fantasy points per game. This is despite inconsistent usage as the 49ers rotate their three starting corners.
Green’s physical game translates to fantasy points, as does the fact teams will soon start avoiding Deommodore Lenoir. With Lenoir turning into a real shutdown corner and Charvarius Ward looking like a possible cap casualty, you could see Green getting 100% of the snaps and a ton of targets next year.
Renardo Green guarding Tyreek Hill 1-on-1. 🔥
— TJ Salomone (@TJSalomone) December 22, 2024
If that happens, expect Green to tip a lot of balls, get called for a lot of PIs, and load up on tackles.
Chop Robinson, DL/LB, Miami Dolphins
The 98th-most-rostered DL in fantasy, Robinson is a raw but explosive rookie. If you followed my NFL Draft evaluations last spring, you know that Robinson was the rare undersized and underproductive edge who earned solid grades from me. His first step is simply that special.
Adding to his dynasty value is the fact Robinson’s pressure and sack totals have come on late in his rookie campaign. The Penn State product looks like he could put everything together and turn it into a double-digit sack weapon.
Payton Wilson, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Linebackers I’ve preached patience on in the past include Zack Baun, Nakobe Dean, and Jamien Sherwood. Each player made my sleepers list before their rookie season, and I persisted in singing their praises in perpetuity … until it finally paid off.
Wilson is a step below some of those players, but he could be on that same list. While I was higher on Baun and Dean coming out of college, Wilson still has the all-around skill set that could make him a dynamic fantasy asset if he ever gets a real opportunity in Pittsburgh. The support system and the player are both perfect for fantasy.
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