X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (5/12/22)

Bam Adebayo - Miami Heat

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 5/12/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

It was a great night for my underdog picks last night! Not only did the Bucks and Grizzlies cover, but they both won outright, albeit in very different fashions. The Bucks won by only three points in the final minute while the Grizzlies absolutely rolled up the Warriors by 39 points in a blowout.

That's the good news, and hopefully, you had some money on those money lines at plus odds. Because both games went OVER their totals while I had the unders and the funky blowout in the late game led to uneven minutes for players on both teams and so player props went 0-3. It was a weird way to go 2-5 overall on the night, but I at least felt vindicated that I got the main outcome right of each game. Now I have to shift my focus to both game sixes with both road teams trying to close out their series despite the road teams not yet winning a game in either of these series!

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Thursday, May 12, 2022. I would also strongly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Postseason Record 65-71
  • Against the Spread 26-23
  • Over/Under 9-11
  • Player Props 30-37

 

NBA Betting Picks for 5/12

Miami Heat (+2.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers (207.5 total)

What do we make of game five? The Sixers look uninspired and uninterested from the outset, which was really bizarre to me considering they had come back to even the series at 2-2 after it looked like they were dead in the water down 2-0. They're now 2-1 in this series with Embiid in the lineup, but they need to get it together in a hurry tonight or they'll be eliminated and what looked like a promising season with a chance at a title run will be over just like that.

I've been on the Heat pretty much the whole series, so that's where I am going to stay. I don't really subscribe to the home-court advantage theory here even with the home team being undefeated in this series as I think the absence of Embiid has more to do with Miami holding serve at home in the first two games than anything else. I think the Heat are really just a better all-around team. Is Jimmy Butler better than Joel Embiid? No. Has he officially passed James Harden? Probably. And it's really not just about Butler, it's about the way Miami plays the game. They play great defense and then figure out a way to get a decent shot on the other end. Their defense forces turnover that lead to fast break points and they're patient enough on offense to work for an open shot.

In crunch time, Butler goes to work and he has a knack for making tough shots down the stretch or getting himself to the free-throw line. I think it's quite possible that the Heat have figured out how they want to scheme their defense against the Sixers with Embiid and that what we saw in game five could happen here again. Erik Spoelstra is such a smart coach and he's constantly tinkering and making adjustments. I don't think we can say the same thing about Doc Rivers, who has really earned the reputation of being a poor "in-game" coach in terms of his inability to adapt to what the other team is doing.

Philly won't give up tonight as they did on Tuesday, but I think Miami wins this game and wraps up the series. Embiid is banged up and trying his best to play through the injury, but I don't think he's anywhere close to his usual self. Miami is better, deeper, and have the best big-game player (Butler) and coach (Spo).

The Picks: Heat +2.5 (-110), Heat ML (+115)

 

Phoenix Suns (-2) @ Dallas Mavericks (212 total)

This series has been weirdly similar to the Miami-Philly series in that the top-seeded team jumped out to a 2-0 lead only to have their opponent tie it up 2-2 and then subsequently blow them out in game five for a 3-2 lead. The Mavs didn't look quite as lifeless as the Sixers, though, in their loss and only trailed by three points at the half. Phoenix jumped all over them in the third quarter, building a 20-point lead going into the fourth that Dallas couldn't recover from and the blowout was on.

This is where it would be really easy to just do what I did in the first game and pick the #1 seed to close out the series. After all, Phoenix is the better team and I don't think many people other than the most die-hard Dallas fans would dispute that. But I have a hard time just writing off Luka Doncic and something tells me that Dallas has one last surge in them here at home that can push this series to a seventh game.

That's certainly not a very data-based take, but we are at the point in the playoffs where there is only so much data you can pull anyway. The Mavericks are a team that you can just never truly count out and they've battled all season long. They shot the ball so poorly in game five that they had no chance. This is a team that relies on three-point shooting for a large chunk of their offense and they shot only 8-32 from deep (25%).

Being outmanned like they are, they'll have to play a near-perfect game to pull out another upset but I've seen them do it enough times that I think it's worthy of an investment. Luka is going to get his and I think his supporting cast plays better tonight. The Mavs win here and force the Suns to close out the series at home in game seven - you heard it here first!

The Pick: Mavs ML (+110)

 

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

 

NBA Prop Bet Picks

Luka Doncic over 9.5 rebounds (-120 DK): Luka has double-digit boards in three of the five games in this series. He's the best rebounder on the team and most of the time, the biggest guy on the floor for Dallas at any given point. As long as the game is competitive, we should see him for almost 40 minutes tonight, and based on his per-minute rebounding numbers, that would put him well over ten for his boards projection.

Chris Paul under 28.5 PRA (-110 DK): I hate taking unders! But sometimes they are the right bet. We've seen CP3 fade into the background in this offense with Devin Booker taking back over. He's gone under this number in four of the five games this series. Now, anything can happen. Booker could get hurt and CP3 goes off. Or CP3 gets hot shooting early and decides to take more shots, but I'm betting on the sample size we have so far that suggests that Paul will continue to pass first instead of shoot and defer to Booker on offense.

Jimmy Butler over 5.5 assists (-150 DK): With Kyle Lowry out again, we are going to see even more point-Jimmy. He has six assists in the last two games of this series and it's hard to imagine him not having the ball in his hands on nearly every possession that he's in the game. If his shooters are knocking down open shots on looks from Butler, he should get there again tonight. Definitely some juice here, but it's a nice prop to parlay with a few others.

 

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Samuel Girard

Avalanche Hope to Have Samuel Girard Available for Start of Season
Mackenzie Blackwood

Out Week-to-Week
Alex Tuch

Day-to-Day With Undisclosed Injury
Jordan Greenway

to Sit Out Training Camp
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Considered Day-to-Day
Simon Edvinsson

to Miss a Couple of Weeks
Mikael Backlund

Signs Two-Year Extension
Connor Ingram

to Be Waived by Mammoth
Zach Hyman

Misses Start of Training Camp
Nick Paul

Out Until November
Kris Letang

Cleared for Training Camp
David Pastrnak

Out for Start of Training Camp
Matthew Tkachuk

Expected to Be Out Until December
NBA

Trevelin Queen Joins Chinese Team
Damian Lillard

Not Rushing His Return
NBA

Keon Johnson Waived by Nets
Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP