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Tommy Bell's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/8/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! It's a beautiful Tuesday in the baseball world, and it's a great day to find some betting value on a full 16-game slate. I was able to hit both of my wagers on Monday to start the week off strong, so let's see if I can keep the momentum going with these two MLB Betting articles I'll be writing today and Wednesday. After storms all over the country yesterday, we're set for loads of ideal, clear weather for Tuesday evening. Let's get to it!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, August 8, 2023. We will focus on moneyline bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @BellRoto for more free betting and DFS advice.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Reds
O/U: 10 | Moneyline: MIA (-142)
MIA: Braxton Garrett | CIN: Luke Weaver
After spending all morning scouring the day's odds, projected starting pitchers/lineups, and looking at bullpen availability, there was very little that stood out with immense value in comparison with DraftKings' provided betting lines. With the weather looking to favor the hitters in many parks today, it makes sense to lean in that direction, but the factors have to lineup in all facets to make it worth a play. Well, I was able to find two early evening games that provide a strong hitting environment along with positive hitter splits and pitchers who we can project to allow a few runs early on. The first is in one of the best hitter-friendly parks in the league: Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.
The Reds will throw right-handed pitcher Luke Weaver against the Marlins, and while Miami can typically look more dangerous against a contact-heavy southpaw, Weaver checks a lot of boxes for this suddenly stacked lineup. In six starts since the calendar turned to June, the 29-year-old has managed just a 6.29 K/9 rate while walking 4.44 batters per nine innings. Weaver has also allowed eight long balls in those 24.1 innings, resulting in an xFIP that's climbing up towards 6.00. A dangerous top half of the Miami lineup should take advantage, and the bottom half can do a fine job at the plate as well with drawing walks and putting balls in play to keep a big inning rolling.
Miami will counter with lefty Braxton Garrett, which should lead to even more offense with a righty-heavy Reds lineup. In the same span of time as Weaver, Garrett has shown much better swing-and-miss ability with less walks, but he has consistently let up three or more earned runs in five of those last six starts. After two homers on Monday night, I project another couple of long balls for the Reds off of Garrett in this one, which he's due for after going 11 innings in his last two starts without a homer. I could easily see either one of these teams exploding for six runs by themselves in the first five frames, and we get the total of both in a great hitting environment for a very fair price on Tuesday night.
Pick: Marlins/Reds OVER 5.5 First 5 Innings (-115) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Mets
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: CHI (-135)
CHI: Jameson Taillon | NYM: Carlos Carrasco
Much of the analysis in this second game follows the trends outlined above, so I'll try to be a little more brief for this Citi Field write-up, which isn't nearly as perfect a park for hitting, but provides a fantastic weather setup for hitting tonight with the temperature at 80 degrees, humidity over 50%, and the wind blowing out more than 15 mph at times.
Jameson Taillon takes the mound for the Cubs, and while he's been much better about avoiding big innings of late, the hits and walks are still piling up over his last six starts. Those trends along with a K/9 rate that hovers just below 8.00 on most nights spells danger in hitter-friendly conditions like these. The Mets can also throw five lefties in the top six of their batting order around Pete Alonso, and Taillon's .394 wOBA against left-handed hitters points to some early offense if that's the case.
As for the Mets, they'll go with Carlos Carrasco, who is a shell of his 2017-2018 Cleveland Indians self. The 36-year-old has allowed 21 earned runs over his last four starts (15.1 innings pitched). That's bad. The struggles are certainly tied to his poor 6.13 K/9 and 3.89 BB/9 rates this season. The Cubs' addition of Jeimer Candelario makes their strong lineup even deeper, and Carrasco will have no weaknesses to attack on a warm Tuesday evening in Flushing, NY. There's certainly merit to backing the Cubs on the first five or full game moneyline as well, but some potential negative regression for Taillon and the friendly hitting conditions have me more interested in the Over in this specific case.
Pick: Cubs/Mets OVER 5.5 First 5 Innings (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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