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Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/25/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! It is Monday and we have a seven-game slate tonight with some interesting matchups. We have some big-time pitchers like Max Scherzer, Corbin Burnes, and Shane Bieber on the mound and we also have some guys who are prone to giving up some runs like Kyle Freeland, Dane Dunning, and Michael Lorenzen.
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I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Monday, April 25, 2022. This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 5-9 overall on the season, down 0.694 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. We will try to bounce back this week as I write the betting picks Monday-Wednesday on sides and totals here at RotoBaller.
Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels
O/U: 8.0 | Moneyline: CLE -115
CLE: Shane Bieber | LAA: Michael Lorenzen
On paper, this looks to be a mismatch here. Shane Bieber is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 16 innings pitched. His xFIP early on in the season is 2.95 (career is 3.00) and his strikeout rate is 27.6% (career is 30.8%). He faces an Angels offense that has scored the 6th most runs so far this year, has a team OBP of .327 (No. 7), SLG of .423 (No. 2), and an ISO of .174 (No. 2). Their downside as an offense is they strike out frequently, 25.7% (No. 3). While Bieber is excellent at striking out batters, he also has a relatively high hard-hit rate for an ace such as himself: 40.9% in his career.
Michael Lorenzen is 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, and a 24.3% strikeout rate in 9.1 innings pitched this year. In his two starts, he threw 89 pitches against Miami and went six innings and then followed it up by throwing 79 pitches in 3.1 innings against Houston. He has a 1.93 HR/9 now in a small sample size with a HR/9 of 1.01 in his career. While his career hard-hit rate has been 32.7%, in 2021 it was 42.7% and this year it is 44% so far. Cleveland has scored the third-most runs, and has a team OBP of .331 (No. 6), SLG of .434 (No. 1), and an ISO of .165 (No. 4).
Additionally, the bullpens are not great at the moment either. Los Angeles has a bullpen ERA of 4.37 (No. 26) while Cleveland's is 3.73 (No. 17).
Lastly, the weather. It will be 91 degrees in Anaheim, but this is a night game. The game will be played in the 50s and 60s. If the wind ends up blowing out, this could become a good hitting environment. I like the game to go over eight runs.
Picks: Over 8.0 (-105), Caesar's Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TOR -125
BOS: Nathan Eovaldi | TOR: Jose Berrios
These division rivals are playing yet another series here, this time in Toronto. Nathan Eovaldi is 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, and a 29.2% strikeout rate in 14.2 innings pitched. On the other side is Jose Berrios who is 1-0 with a 6.35 ERA, 5.44 xFIP, and an 18.6% strikeout rate in 11.1 innings pitched. In this very small sample size, Eovaldi would look like the clear advantage here, but when comparing their career numbers, Berrios has a higher K% and both guys are close in xFIP (Berrios is 4.19 in his career while Eovaldi is 3.95).
Toronto has one of the better bullpens in the game with a team era of 2.73 (No. 9), while Boston's is a solid 3.04 (No. 13).
If Berrios can avoid getting blown up, this has the makings of a low-scoring game. Berrios did manage to go six innings, get six strikeouts, allowed just one run, and got a win against Boston just five days ago. Nathan Eovaldi six days ago against Toronto went 4.2 innings, struck out six batters, and allowed just one run. In the three games, these teams have played so far, they all went seven runs or less (2-1, 6-1, and 3-2 were the scores).
When making the pick here, you can go for under 8.5 runs and pay a little bit more juice (between -109 and -120 depending on the book) or you can go for 8.0 runs and pay less juice (-105 across the board). I am going to opt for slightly more juice.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-109), BetRivers Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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