Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship

Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given all of you every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at Jackson Country Club. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship outright betting card.

The five names on this betting card are aimed at returning about seven times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.

In the three-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 26 outright winners (a 20.3% hit rate) for a profit of over $16,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 36.0%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament. But if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, outright golf betting has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship!

Sanderson Farms Betting Card

Keith Mitchell (26-1)

An eagle hole-out to take the solo lead!
@K_m_Mitchell is the first player in tournament history to play the Snake Pit (Nos. 16-18) in 4-under par @ValsparChamp. pic.twitter.com/EWrfSoY918

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 23, 2024

Whether it be its direct proximity to the President's Cup, one of the European Tour's most prestigious events being contested on the same week, or the general need for rest after a grueling 2024 season as a whole, we're not exactly being spoiled for choice as PGA fans in the headliner department. Only one player in this field currently sits inside the top 50 in the world rankings (Nick Dunlop), and all but three players currently sit outside of the top 50 year-long designation required for entry into 2025's signature series.

This lack of marquee names does provide a golden opportunity (both for players and bettors), however, as a win at the Sanderson Farms carries with it the same exemptions, financial rewards, and securities afforded to the winner of any other Tour event. For bettors, the outright case becomes a lot easier when our favorite mid-tier player isn't having to hold off a charge from Scottie Scheffler or Xander Schauffele over the weekend to close the deal.

One player who should be licking his chops at this opportunity is Keith Mitchell: a player who despite sitting as the 89th-ranked player on the planet, will almost assuredly sit atop the models of many of your favorite golf-betting personalities. Mitchell may not have a finish better than ninth in 2024 thus far, but he has put on a career-best run of tee-to-green play: resulting in a whopping 10 top-twenty finishes over his last 20 starts, and a place alongside some of the game's premier names in many underlying ball-striking metrics.

In fact, over his last 50 rounds, only Scottie Scheffler has gained more strokes to the field than Keith Mitchell when combining driving and iron play. He leads this field in Ball-Striking, Birdie Chances Created, and Birdie or Better Percentage, and ranks inside the top five in Total Driving, Driving Distance, and Weighted Proximity.

There aren't many entities in this field that I'd look twice at in the 20-1 range normally, but my numbers have Mitchell as far and away the safest projection in this field. His slumping putter has seemed to be corrected over the last two weeks: most notably gaining a season-best 3.3 strokes on the Champion Bermuda greens of Sedgefield last month. The UGA alum has always held a special affinity for Bermudagrass, and if these trends can hold this week in Jackson, you'd be hard pressed to find him anywhere but the top of the leaderboard on Sunday afternoon.

Ben Griffin (35-1)

Ben Griffin extends his lead with birdie on the 17th! 👀

-14 and the heavy betting favorite at +210 live @DKSportsbook pic.twitter.com/YJSeo33Fjx

— Golfbet (@Golfbet) October 6, 2023

His reputation as one of the PGA Tour's preeminent bridesmaids was only furthered in a Sunday 74 that lost him the 2023 Sanderson Farms title, but 12 months later, Ben Griffin looks as primed as ever to break his longstanding drought and find the PGA Tour winner's circle. From June-August, the North Carolina Tar Heel put together one of the more impressive approach runs on the entire PGA Tour: gaining an average of 3.53 strokes on approach per start in eight events from the Canadian Open to the Wyndham Championship.

Here in Jackson, Griffin has gained 7.0 and 6.2 shots with his iron play in two career starts, and put together the best putting week of his PGA Tour career in 2023 (+8.5). Of course, the driver has been Griffin's greatest historic weakness, and was the major catalyst for last years collapse: losing 3.2 strokes to the field off-the-tee on Sunday alone. I'm willing to throw out this outlier round, as in general, the friendly confines of Jackson CC will provide him with an ample space to spray the ball off of the tee (and have recently played host to triumphs from other sub-par drivers of the golf ball: Peter Malnati, Mackenzie Hughes, Ryan Armour, etc.).

In the two most predictive facets of the game, Griffin ranks near the top of the class in both historic acumen on Bermudagrass greens and in incoming approach form. He's knocked on the door on many occasions over the course of the 2024 season, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a more suitable venue for his long-awaited breakthrough.

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

J.J. Spaun (37-1)

Last 7 holes for @JJSpaun:

Eagle
Par
Birdie
Birdie
Birdie
Par
Birdie

He's 2 back. pic.twitter.com/ArHNulAEgP

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 31, 2022

Speaking of incoming approach form, there aren't many hotter players on the planet with the second shot than J.J. Spaun. The San Diego State product has recorded positive approach splits in 11 straight starts dating back to the Houston Open in March, and leads this field in SG: Approach from a per round standpoint over his last 36 rounds (+0.79).

Over his last five starts in particular, Spaun has gained an average of 4.5 strokes with his iron play: a run that goes unmatched by even some of the game's best second-shot artists Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, or Xander Schauffele in that time. This career-best ball-striking run has also coincided with a string of six straight positive starts on the greens: resulting in zero missed cuts since the start of June, three top-ten finishes, and a third-place showing at Sedgefield another course in the southeast with virtually identical agronomy to Jackson.

From key stats like recent approach/putting splits, to auxillary metrics like Par 5 scoring, Birdie or Better Percentage and Weighted Proximity, it's difficult to find a single stat for which Spaun doesn't rate out near the top of this week's class. You can make a legitimate case that he's as due for a win as anyone in this fall swing roster, and at prices bordering on 40-1, I'm more than comfortable taking a shot on the 34-year-old Fil-Am.

Chan Kim (40-1)

4 birdies on the front 🔥

First timer Chan Kim's front nine @THEPLAYERS

par
birdie
par
bogey
par
birdie
birdie
par
birdie pic.twitter.com/vfg0IKCsOP

— Korn Ferry Tour (@KornFerryTour) March 15, 2024

I highlighted his rapidly ascendant trajectory heading into the Fall Swing three weeks ago, and after a top-10 tee-to-green performance in Napa, I see no reason to hop off of the Chan Kim bandwagon in Swing Season opportunity number two. Kim is the only player outside of Keith Mitchell to rank inside the top 10 in both ball-striking metrics over his last 36 rounds, and with seven top 15 finishes already to his name in his first nine months on Tour, it's clear that the native of Suwon, South Korea is swiftly knocking on the door of his first win on the big stage.

Of course, Kim is no stranger to the winner's circle, being an 8-time winner on the Japanese Tour and a back-to-back champion on the Korn Ferry Tour just last year. He sneakily ranks as the 11th-best player on the entire Tour this year from Tee-to-Green (right between Justin Thomas and Ludvig Aberg), so I have full faith he's got what it takes to conquer a field with just one top 50 player in attendance. 2

Nick Hardy (110-1)

Last hole of the day so Nick Hardy sacrifices his club into a tree and hits an absolutely insane shot to give himself a look at birdie.pic.twitter.com/xXB9eBuUfR

— Betsperts Golf (@BetspertsGolf) July 27, 2023

He captured his first PGA Tour title one state away at the 2023 Zurich Team Event, and with the recent ball-striking run he's put together in the last three months, Nick Hardy looks primed to find his way into victory lane on his own very soon. Hardy comes into this week having gained strokes approach in ten straight starts dating back to April's Valero Texas Open, and has gained strokes off of the tee in eight of those ten.

Despite ranking inside the top 15 in each ball-striking category over the last three months, Hardy has been held to no finish better than 38th since the Valero: due largely to a balky putter that has lost a whopping 3.1 shots on average in his last five starts.

Fortunately though, Hardy will be returning to much friendlier confines in regards to historic putting splits. The Illinois-grad has gained strokes on Jackson's greens in each of his three career appearances: logging finishes of 26th, 5th, and 35th since making his debut in 2021.

Once a top-ten ranked amateur in the loaded class of 2019, the breakthrough has been a long-awaited one for the Chicago-native. He's clearly comfortable on this property and I believe the underlying stats show a player much more primed for a win than his recent finishes would indicate. He's a top-five ball-striker in this field by my numbers, and at prices north of 100-1, Hardy is absolutely worth a shot in a field devoid of any truly elite figures.

In-Tournament Strategy

With these five names on the card, we're still left with ~20% of our weekly budget to use on in-tournament additions. This section will outline a few names to monitor in the live markets, as well as a few potential angles to use when assessing player viability over the course of the week.

• In general, the swing season isn’t known for placing a great number of impediments in front of the world’s best, and the Country Club of Jackson is no different. 10 of the 18 holes here have historically played under par, and on three occasions in the last 10 years, CCoJ has surrendered a scoring average below 70 (2016, 2022, and 2023). This figure puts Jackson right alongside Kapalua, Craig Ranch, and Keene Trace as one of the easier overall venues on Tour. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see someone go out early in the week and post a number in the low 60s to set the pace.
• Funnily enough, the two nines carry the exact same scoring averages dating back to 2015 (35.47), and neither side is without its fair share of scoring opportunities. Holes 1, 2, 3, and 5 carry birdie or better rates of at least 20% on the front nine, whereas 11, 13, 14, 15, and 17 provide the main scoring chances on the inward half. It should be emphasized that every single hole at Jackson comes with a BoB Rate of at least 10%, so there’s no singular spot on the golf course in which it’s completely unfathomable to pick up a shot.
• If there was one obstacle on the course I expect to trip up a few of this week's contestants, it would be at the par four 16th. Playing at 479 yards on the scorecard, the 16th will force these players to hit driver through a narrow shoot with a penalizing bunker and dense treelines on the right side, and out-of-bounds all the way down the left. Once the ball’s in the fairway, the hole becomes much more straightforward, but the peril in play off-the-tee has accounted for a historic bogey rate of 20.2%, with 4.6% of players carding a 6 or worse.
• A few other rogue hazards at 8, 11, and 12 can also cause some stress if you find yourself out of position, but in general, I’d expect many of these guys to have no trouble routinely putting the ball on the putting surface in regulation. When mapping out target points in the live market, I think the best value propositions will come from players making the turn from 18 to 1.
• Not only will back-nine starters already have dealt with four of the six most difficult holes on the course (including the aforementioned 16th), but the start of Jackson’s front nine presents the clearest scoring opportunities on the property in quick succession. Holes 1-5 at Jackson CC have played to a scoring average of (-0.66), with four of the five carrying birdie or better rates of >20%. If you’re looking for a spot on the course where a player can make a quick move up the leaderboard, this is the most likely spot I see.

With this said, here are a few back-nine starters that my numbers liked, and could present a value opportunity in Round 1:

• Cameron Champ (8:38am)
• Nick Dunlap (8:49am)
• Michael Thorbjornsen (9:44am)
• Charley Hoffman (12:50pm)
• Chris Gotterup (1:45pm)
• Austin Smotherman (2:40pm)

Best of luck, guys, and happy hunting!

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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