First Base Risers, Fallers, Buys, and Sells for Dynasty Fantasy Baseball

November 15, 2024

Eric Cross discusses six risers and fallers at the first position heading into 2025 and recommends if you should buy low, sell high, hold, or avoid in fantasy baseball leagues this offseason.

While the offseason has just begun, it's never too early to look ahead and begin prepping for 2025. And for those of you in dynasty leagues, November can be just as important as July when it comes to roster construction and improving your teams for the long run.

As I've said several times before, there's never a bad time to make moves to improve your team(s) for the upcoming season and beyond. Part of that is identifying player values that are shifting positively or negatively and making the determination of whether to buy, sell, hold, or avoid. That's what this series over the next several weeks is going to focus on. I'm going position by position, discussing players whose values are rising or falling right now and what we should be doing with them.

After discussing the catcher position to lead off this series, we shift to first base today with a six-pack of intriguing names right now including a trio of prospects.

First Base Risers, Fallers, Buys, and Sells for Dynasty Fantasy Baseball

Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox

This will likely be the last time you can acquire Triston Casas for a non-elite price tag given his injury-shortened 2024 season where he was limited to 243 plate appearances due to torn cartilage in his rib cage. Casas wasn't bad in 2024 but it was clear he wasn't 100% upon returning and was still impacted by the injury which he described as "a car crash within his body." Anyone who has played baseball knows how important your core is when swinging, so I'm completely ignoring 2024 and focusing more on what we saw from Casas in 2023.

Three straight game with a bomb for Casas pic.twitter.com/pTPFuqbpc2

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) July 16, 2023

From July 7 through the end of the season, Casas slashed a robust .319/.418/.617 with 15 home runs, 38 RBI, 35 runs scored and a 14.1% walk rate in 56 games. Only three fellows names Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Matt Olson had a better wRC+ and wOBA than Casas had during that span.

Given his below-average contact rates, I'm not expecting Casas to hit over .300 or anything, but given his quality of contact and home ballpark, an average around .270 is a reasonable expectation along with his 40-homer upside. I'm extremely confident that Casas is going to be an elite fantasy first baseman moving forward and he won't cost you an elite price tag yet.

Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies

Thanks to a surprising 25/10 season in 2024, Michael Toglia's name is on the rise right now. But given the .218 AVG, he's a difficult one to value and rank heading into 2025. And as you might expect, the profile is a mixed bag filled with notable strengths and weaknesses.

Toglia is an elite power bat who posted a 17.3% barrel rate, 92.1 mph AVG EV, and 50.2% hard-hit rate in 2024 along with a 15.1° launch angle and elite 39.2% Sweet-Spot rate. All of his power metrics including his xSLG ranked among the Top-10 of hitters in baseball last season. So over a full season with half his games in Coors, it's not hard to envision a 2025 season where Toglia cranks 40 home runs. If I was a betting man, he's not a bad dark horse pick to lead the National League in home runs.

Obviously, Toglia's profile becomes less appealing outside of the power. However, his contact metrics, while below average, aren't terrible. Toglia ran a 77.5% zone contact and 65.1% overall contact rate in 2024 with an 11.8% walk rate and 32.1% strikeout rate. I'd say the best-case scenario is a .250 hitter, but I'd bank on him being closer to .250 than the .211 mark he was at in 2024.

Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds

We go from one Cincinnati Red to another with Spencer Steer. While Encarnacion-Strand provided zero value in 2024, Spencer Steer was a Top-100 overall player and posted a surprising 20/20 season, finishing with 20 home runs and 25 steals in 656 plate appearances to go along with 74 runs and 92 RBI. However, a rough second half where he slashed .198/.291/.344 really put a damper on his season and Steer finished with a .225/.319/.402 slash line overall.

I'm willing to chalk up a chunk of Steer's poor second half to a bit of bad luck though as Steer had the lowest BABIP (.240) among qualified first-base eligible players in the second half. You also can't dissect Steer's profile and come away thinking that he's a .225 caliber hitter. Steer posted an 86.6% zone contact and 76.9% overall contact rate along with a chase rate and strikeout rate that were both better than league average.

With above-average contact and approach metrics to go along with around-average power, I'm expecting the AVG to bounce back in a big way with help from Great American Ballpark. Yes, the GABP BABIP boost wasn't there for Steer in 2024, but the odds of him running a BABIP that low again are slim. I'd expect similar power/speed contributions with a higher AVG and OBP.

Bryce Eldridge, San Francisco Giants

At the first base position in the prospect world, no player had a more astronomical rise than Bryce Eldridge. Sure, he wasn't an unknown, but Eldridge mashed his way into the top-20 overall discussion in 2024. In 116 games across four levels, Eldridge slashed .292/.374/.516 with 27 doubles and 23 home runs. The last of those 23 jacks came in Triple-A as a 19-year-old. Truly an amazing season.

we’d like to inform you all that bryce eldridge hit another home run#RootedHere pic.twitter.com/BpfuE6GQj5

— Eugene Emeralds (@EugeneEmeralds) September 2, 2024

With Eldridge, his massive raw power immediately stands out and he's continued to showcase that raw power out in the Arizona Fall League. This is arguably the best power hitter San Francisco has developed in many years and an annual 30-homer bat is a realistic outcome for Eldridge. However, there are still some questions surrounding how much average Eldridge will hit for. That will be the X-Factor here and decide whether he's a strong starting fantasy first baseman or more of a solid corner infield option.

With that said, even a .260/30 profile is an impactful outcome and there's upside for more than that. Eldridge is a rare buy-high candidate heading into 2025 as the price tag will likely only continue to rise.

Xavier Isaac, Tampa Bay Rays

While Bryce Eldridge was surging up rankings, Xavier Isaac took a second-half tumble. After hitting .337 and .327 respectively in May and June, Isaac slashed just .213/.340/.367 over his final 47 games along with a concerning 41.9% strikeout rate. How much of this was due to an injury in June? That's hard to say. But what's not hard to say is that Isaac's strikeout concerns are a major red flag right now. And unfortunately, those issues followed him to the Arizona Fall League.

With Isaac, the pros and cons are both notable. Isaac has shown plus power and sneaky speed and athleticism for his size. Over a full season, Isaac could push 30 home runs with double-digit steals as well. But as we've seen with countless other prospects before him, that doesn't mean much if he's making contact less than 60% of the time with a 33.3% strikeout rate. The upside is there, but the arrow is pointing downwards.

Josue Briceño, Detroit Tigers

If you simply look at Josue Briceño's surface stats from 2024, you won't be blown away. A sprained knee cost Briceño three months and limited him to 40 games In those 40 games, Briceño hit .278 with a .381 OBP, but with only two home runs and nine extra-base hits. But that's why surface stats don't always tell the full story. While Briceño didn't hit for a ton of power that shows up in the box score, he posted an impressive 82.2% contact rate and 42.3% hard-hit rate in Single-A this season.

Josue Briceño with a hard double down the right field line.#RepDetroit pic.twitter.com/PmIn18hrnn

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) October 31, 2024

Oh, and did I mention he just reincarnated as early-2000s Barry Bonds out in the Arizona Fall League? Briceño is an above-average contact hitter with a solid approach and plus power that is still developing. Even with his massive AFL showing, Briceño's perceived value and price tag aren't as high as they should be in dynasty leagues, making him an attractive target via trade. Briceño is pushing Top-50 overall prospect status and could be in the Top-25 discussion by mid-2025.

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