X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Implications of Steve Pearce Joining the Toronto Blue Jays

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Jeff Kahntroff analyzes the fantasy impact of Steve Pearce joining the Toronto Blue Jays, including whether he's a viable 2017 fantasy baseball draft pick, value or sleeper.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to our ongoing series on MLB player outlooks and free agent signings. In case you missed them, you can see our earlier columns on various 2017 player outlooks including those who changed teams.

On December 5, the Blue Jays signed one of my favorite Orioles, Steve Pearce, to a two-year deal despite his ongoing recovery from flexor tendon surgery.

This article will discuss what to expect from Pearce as a Blue Jay in 2017.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

2017 Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

The Injury History: When the Orioles traded for Steve Pearce at last year’s deadline, they were aware of his injury, although possibly without a complete picture of the severity. He was able to swing the bat, but the pain eventually became too bad to throw the ball from the outfield, and he ended up requiring flexor tendon surgery. As a result, it looked like teams would wait until later in the offseason to evaluate his health, but the Jays pounced early.

While it’s too early to determine his recovery timeline with any precision, optimistic projections have him being ready for spring training and possibly ready for the outfield by Opening Day. Because Steve Pearce has struggled to stay healthy, it would be unwise to assume everything will go according to plan. Even if he does come back quickly, will a limited spring affect his performance? Will he come back at less than full strength and be detrimentally affected? His draftability needs to be dinged significantly for injury concerns, with him holding more value in leagues with DL slots, deep benches, and daily lineups.

The Track Record: Pearce has always hit lefties. But, in 2014, he experienced a breakout. In 102 games, he hit .293/.373/.556 with 21 homers, 51 runs, 49 RBIs and 5 steals. Some projected him as the next breakout star for 2015, while others saw him as a one-year wonder. In 2015, he struggled, going .218/.289/.422. However, if you look closely at his 2015, his BABIP was 90 points lower, while his HR rate was similar and his K and BB rates were only slightly worse. Thus, it may have been only a partial surprise when he bounced back in 2016, hitting .288/.374/.492 with 13 homers, 35 runs and 35 RBIs in 85 games. In both 2014 and 2016, his overall numbers were still aided by an OPS against LHP at least .230 higher than vs RHP (1.109 vs .856 in 2014; 1.032 vs .792 in 2016); so, if he played everyday, his overall numbers would likely come down a touch as he sat versus more righties than lefties in 2014 and 2016.

How Often Will He Play? Between the injuries and the fact that Pearce came up as a platoon player, he has never played more than 102 games in a season.  Over the last five years, Pearce has played 85, 92, 102, 44, and 61 games. However, in 2014 and 2016 he began trending toward everyday playing time. If Pearce is healthy enough to play outfield from the outset, he will likely get more playing time than if he cannot. And if he hits like 2014 and 2016, he will eventually force his way into everyday playing time, health permitting. Nonetheless, predicting that this is the year he will finally play 150+ games would be a mistake given his history. Thus, he holds more value in leagues with deeper benches and daily lineups.

The Ballparks and Lineups: Pearce moving to Toronto should help his power output, as his home park will be +13% for righty homers as opposed to -7% in Tampa. His time in Baltimore, which was +11%, should provide a good comparison. Looking more deeply into his batted balls, Pearce would have hit five more homers in 2016 if all his games were played in Toronto, showing that the move should give him a boost. Pearce should also receive a lineup boost by going from a bottom 1/3 offense in 2016 to a top 1/3 offense; while the Jays downgraded from Edwin Encarnacion to Kendrys Morales and Michael Saunders signed with the Phillies, Toronto should still be better offensively than the Rays were in Pearce’s time there (26th in runs before the All-Star break).

Projection and Summary: Pearce’s track record suggests he will not play a full season of games, but that he will provide plenty of power when he does, as well as slaughtering left-handed pitching. He has shown the ability to hit for average at times and is a good run producer. If you have a deep bench and daily lineups, he is worth a flier. If not, I would leave him on the wire.


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Roman Anthony

Leaves Early With Back Injury
Jared McCain

"On Pace" for Training Camp
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Done for the Year With Torn ACL
Luke Hughes

Devils Optimistic About Signing Luke Hughes
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Dylan Holloway

Good to Go for Start of Season
Nick Kurtz

Back in Action on Tuesday
Josh Morrissey

Fully Healthy for Start of Season
Dennis Hildeby

Signs Three-Year Extension With Maple Leafs
Nick Lodolo

Scratched With Illness
Quinshon Judkins

Zero Chance Quinshon Judkins Plays Against Bengals?
Najee Harris

Says He's Expecting to Play Against Chiefs
Franz Wagner

Collects Double-Double in Blowout Win
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Achieves Rare Numbers at EuroBasket
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Dominates Against Sweden
Stefon Diggs

Expected to Suit Up in Week 1
Kristaps Porzingis

Finding Form at EuroBasket
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Suffers Minor Injury at EuroBasket
DJ Moore

Bears Experimenting with DJ Moore in Backfield
Rome Odunze

Could Move All Around the Offense
Carolina Panthers

Dave Canales Comfortable With Panthers' Young Receivers
Quinshon Judkins

Not Considering NCAA Return
Dallas Goedert

Healthy for Week 1
Marvin Mims Jr.

Returns to Practice Monday
Victor Wembanyama

Looking "Quite Stellar"
Matthew Stafford

Expected to Start in Week 1
Edward Cabrera

Heading to Injured List With Elbow Sprain
Najee Harris

Cleared for Contact, Could Play in Week 1
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Victor Scott II

Activated From Injured List
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Dealing With Hamstring Tightness, Expects to Play Monday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

"Staying in Milwaukee"
Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Agrees to a One-Year Contract with Milwaukee
Kyrie Irving

"Healing Up Great"
Dante Exum

Mavs Agree on a One-Year Deal
Jaylen Warren

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Steelers
De'Von Achane

Practicing Monday, on Track to Play in Week 1
Quinshon Judkins

Could Report to Browns This Week
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs, Trent McDuffie Not Expected to Finalize Extension
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500
Dameon Pierce

Ahead of Schedule, Ready for Season
Jordan Love

May Wear Thumb Brace During Season
Chicago Bears

Bears Head Coach Admits Offense Could Face Learning Curve
Matt Chapman

Leaves Early on Sunday, Expects to Play Monday
A.J. Brown

Says He'll Be Active For Season Opener
Luis Garcia

to Make Season Debut on Monday
Max Scherzer

Exits Due to Back Tightness
Taylor Ward

Exits Early After Collison
Braelon Allen

Says He Has a Lot Left to Prove
Sal Stewart

Reds Promoting Sal Stewart to Majors
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Randy Rodríguez

Randy Rodriguez to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic to Miss the Rest of EuroBasket
Denny Hamlin

Picking Up Where He Left Off At Darlington
Kyle Larson

The Sky Is The Limit for Kyle Larson at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

a Strong DFS Play at Darlington This Weekend
Tyler Reddick

Shouldn't Be Overlooked at Darlington This Weekend
Alex Bowman

An Easy Place-Differential Play in DFS This Weekend
Ty Gibbs

Could Be Strong at Darlington This Weekend
Erik Jones

Has Best Darlington Qualifying Effort Since Last Win
Zane Smith

Hopeful For Another Solid Run At Darlington
Aroldis Chapman

Agrees to Contract Extension
Juan Soto

Homers Twice in Loss
Nick Kurtz

Avoids Serious Injury
MacKenzie Gore

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Reaches 25-Homer, 25-Steal Milestone
Chris Sale

Activated on Saturday
Dansby Swanson

Homers Twice, Drives in Six in Win
Nick Kurtz

Leaves Game With Oblique Soreness
Joe Burrow

Bengals Feel Joe Burrow Just had "the Best Training Camp of his Career"
Dallas Mavericks

Olivier-Maxence Prosper Waived by the Mavs
Lauri Markkanen

Dominant in Win Over Great Britain
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Leads Serbia to a Win
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Shines Versus Portugal
Jose Alvarado

"Good" After Recent Fall
Lauri Markkanen

Torches Sweden
Neemias Queta

Dominates in EuroBasket Opener
Kawhi Leonard

Clippers Not Allowing Kawhi Leonard to Play Back-to-Backs
Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks Looking to Trade Olivier-Maxence Prosper

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP