Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 9

October 30, 2024

Adam Koffler's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 9 of 2024. He identifies players at RB, WR, TE with rising fantasy values.

Week 8 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead, use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead.

Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if our risers and fallers are still rising or still falling. Heading into Week 8, our biggest risers were Joe Mixon, Kareem Hunt, George Pickens, and David Njoku. Our biggest fallers were Josh Downs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Christian Watson, and Devin Singletary. Mixon and Hunt remained workhorses and Njoku was a stud with Jameis Winston. On the flip side, Downs overcame Anthony Richardson’s woes as a passer by posting 109 yards and a touchdown on a 29% target share. When Joe Flacco takes over again, we’ll be calling him Josh “Ups.”

Now that we’ve recapped the previous week’s risers and fallers, let’s take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 9.

Week 9 Fantasy Football Risers

Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns

Last week, we highlighted David Njoku, and this week, we're highlighting the WR1 for the Jameis Winston-led Cleveland Browns. That's right, Cedric Tillman. In his second game without Amari Cooper, he produced 99 yards and two touchdowns on nine targets. That comes a week after posting eight catches for 81 yards on 12 targets.

Jameis finds Cedric Tillman to retake the lead!

📺: #BALvsCLE on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/sjSIvER5b5

— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024

In two games without Cooper, Tillman leads all Browns pass-catchers in air yards share (36.8%), yards per route run (2.22), and first-read target share (27.3%), per Fantasy Points Data.

It appears all Tillman needed was playing time and a new quarterback not named Deshaun Watson. With Cooper gone and Winston in, we've got a perfect storm brewing in Cleveland for the second-year wideout. This is not a fluke; go pick up, buy, and/or hold Tillman in all your fantasy leagues.

Deshaun Watson averaged 170 passing yards in six full games.

Jameis Winston threw for 334 in his first start. His career average is 277 in games with at least 90% of snaps.

Hard to overstate how drastically this changes the outlook for this offense.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) October 28, 2024

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The answer to "Which receiver is going to lead the Buccaneers in targets with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both out" has been answered. It's Cade Otton. The Bucs tight end led all pass-catchers with a 22% target share in Week 8. He turned that into nine catches for 81 yards and two touchdowns. Otton is now averaging 8.5 catches for 90.5 yards and a score on 10 targets in his last two games.

Cade Otton time. #NationalTightEndsDay

📺: #ATLvsTB on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/UKxppwoiSk

— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024

There's a whole lot of trust between Otton and Baker Mayfield. Per Fantasy Points Data, he tied for fourth among pass-catchers with 10, count them, 10 first-read targets in Week 8. Only CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave, and Calvin Ridley had more first-read targets than Otton this past weekend.

Because the Bucs didn't trade for Diontae Johnson, Otton figures to be in the mix to lead his team in targets going forward. That's extremely valuable from the tight-end position. Travis Kelce comes to mind as a tight end that has done that in the past and we know the kind of production he has had over the years.

Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans

It might not be pretty, but Ridley now has life in the post-DeAndre Hopkins era. It gets even better (somehow) with Mason Rudolph under center. In his first game without Hopkins and with Rudolph at quarterback, Ridley posted season highs in receptions (10), yards (143), and targets (15). Before Week 8, he hadn't caught more than four balls in a game all season.

A dime from @Rudolph2Mason to @CalvinRidley1 to set up the TD!

📺: Watch #TENvsDET on @NFLonFOX stream on NFL+ pic.twitter.com/cC2Xzziywn

— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) October 27, 2024

Per Fantasy Points Data, Ridley had a 41.4% first-read target share in Week 8. Tyler Boyd was second on the team with a 17.2% first-read target share. That led to the second-most expected fantasy points (27.2) behind only CeeDee Lamb (27.8).

Rudolph has attempted 40 and 38 passes in his two games as the starter this season. He threw for over 200 yards in both of those games. Will Levis, on the other hand, averaged just 30.3 pass attempts per game in his four full games and only eclipsed 200 passing yards just once.

The Titans also have a ton of favorable matchups left on the schedule, which should lead to some very fantasy-friendly numbers for Ridley going forward.

De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

Achane is a completely different player when Tua Tagovailoa is under center. In three games with the QB, Achane is averaging a whopping 26.4 PPR fantasy points per game. In two games with both Tagovailoa and Raheem Mostert, he's still averaging 24.9 PPR points per game. And he looked back to his normal self in Week 8.

Tua to De’Von Achane for a Dolphins TD!

📺: #AZvsMIA on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/VmCD4xBVw7

— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024

In fact, with Mostert active, Achane's role gets even better from a fantasy perspective since we know from the great Scott Barrett that a target is worth approximately 2.74 times more than a carry in PPR leagues. He might lose a touchdown here and there, but Achane's role in the passing game has reached new heights this season with both Tagovailoa and Mostert playing.

De’Von Achane splits per-game w/ and w/o both Raheem Mostert and Tua Tagovailoa

With (two games):
- 17.5 opps
- 7.5 targets
- 43% of opps as targets
- 24.9 PPR pts

Without (four games):
- 19 opps
- 4.5 targets
- 24% of opps as targets
- 13.7 PPR pts

Efficiency and HVT are BACK

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) October 28, 2024

Even if Mostert misses time, figure Jaylen Wright takes over the Mostert role as a grinder and Achane maintains his elite utilization. This isn't a one-game facade; this is the new normal for Achane and the Dolphins offense.

Other Risers: Chris Olave, Jalen McMillan, James Conner, Nick Chubb, Jalen Coker, Ladd McConkey

Week 9 Fantasy Football Fallers

Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers

In Week 7, it appeared Wicks had overtaken Christian Watson as the WR3 in Green Bay. In Week 8, Wicks played just 30% of the snaps and looked like a distant fourth option in the Packers passing attack. He's a good player, but he has become impossible to trust each week with Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Watson all healthy.

Christian Watson vs. Dontayvion Wicks: Round 2

Watson: 77% routes, 22% targets
Wicks: 30% routes, 7% targets

No clue what this will look like going forward. Pretty unstable situation each week.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) October 27, 2024

After catching 67% (39-of-58) of his targets as a rookie, Wicks has hauled in just 40% of his targets this season (16-of-40). He's had his moments this season, but it's nearly impossible to determine when those will happen.

Another juicy matchup is on the horizon vs. the Lions, but good luck trying to figure out which Packers pass-catcher will pop in Week 9. If we're betting against one of them, it should be the guy with just a 25% snap share the last three weeks, and that's Wicks.

Amari Cooper, Buffalo Bills

It appears Keon Coleman took the Bills trading for Amari Cooper personally. The rookie wideout is averaging 97.5 yards on seven targets per game in two games since the trade. As a result, Cooper's role, and production, have been held in check.

In his first week with the Bills, Cooper played on just 35% of the snaps. He caught four of his five targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. Things were looking up, so naturally, one might expect that snap share to increase in his second game with the team. However, his snap share went up to just 50% and he saw just two targets in Week 8. Coleman, meanwhile, played on 83% of the snaps and put up 70 yards and a touchdown last weekend.

With Coleman and Khalil Shakir playing so well of late, it's possible there are not enough balls to go around for Cooper. Through eight games, Josh Allen is averaging just 220.8 passing yards on 27.9 pass attempts per game. Even if Cooper manages to command a 25% target share, that's just under seven targets per game. That's hard to trust given the strides Coleman and Shakir have made and continue to make.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

Reed has gone back-to-back games with fewer than five targets. In his last two games, he's averaging just 32.5 receiving yards on 3.5 targets per game. In Week 8, he played just 59% of the snaps and had a 67% route participation rate. Romeo Doubs continued leading the way in both playing time and route participation, but it was Christian Watson who surpassed Reed in playing time this past weekend with a 74% snap share and 77% route participation rate.

Calling him a faller before playing a game against a pass-funnel Lions defense in Week 9 could certainly come back to haunt us, but it's been boom or bust for Reed this season. He's had two blow-up games against the Eagles and Vikings in which he produced 33.1 and 27.1 fantasy points, respectively. However, in his other six games, he's averaging just 9.4 fantasy points per game.

And now Jordan Love is dealing with a strained groin coming out of Week 8. There's at least a chance we see Malik Willis in Week 9, and that wouldn't be the best for Reed's value. In his two starts earlier in the season, Reed averaged just three catches for 29.5 yards on four targets per game.

It's hard to sit Reed given he could have one of his blow-up games at any moment, but it's not the greatest feeling knowing he could put up a dud in any game. He's what we like to call "better in best ball" in 2024.

Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders

That's now two straight games under a 50% snap share for B Rob. He could just be ramping back up from his knee injury suffered in Week 5, but he's still splitting work with Austin Ekeler.

And in Week 8, it was Ekeler who was on the field more. Robinson still had the higher RB opportunity share (60%), but Ekeler had his most opportunities (10) playing in a game with Robinson since Week 2.

Robinson's route participation rate has also trended down in the past two weeks. In his first four games, he had a route participation rate of about 45%. In Week 8, that number was just 25%. He has just one, yes one, target in his last three games.

Unfortunately for fantasy managers, if he's not scoring touchdowns, his fantasy value leaves a lot to be desired given the lack of work in the passing game and sharing the field with Ekeler. Week 9 against the Giants is a decent matchup, but then he gets a couple of very tough games against the Steelers and Eagles.

Other Fallers: Cole Kmet, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Jaylen Waddle, Tyler Lockett

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