RADIO
Adam Koffler's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 10 of 2024. He identifies players at RB, WR, TE with rising fantasy values.
Week 9 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead, use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead.
Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if our risers and fallers are still rising or still falling. Heading into Week 9, our biggest risers were Cedric Tillman, Cade Otton, Calvin Ridley, and De'Von Achane. Our biggest fallers were Dontayvion Wicks, Amari Cooper, Jayden Reed, and Brian Robinson Jr. Tillman and Achane continued to thrive, while Cooper and Robinson didn't even suit up in Week 9.
Now that we’ve recapped the previous week’s risers and fallers, let’s take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 10.
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Week 10 Fantasy Football Risers
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Brown was already starting to take a stranglehold on the Bengals backfield before Week 9. Then Zack Moss (neck) was listed as doubtful and ultimately ruled out. At that moment, I recommended to the masses to confidently start Brown in Week 9, given his projected role. He ended up producing 157 total yards and a touchdown on 32 touches. A must-start indeed!
Without Moss in Week 9, Brown registered a season-high 80% snap share and a season-high 63% route participation rate. His deployment was similar to guys like Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson, and Breece Hall. He rewarded his patient fantasy managers with 26.7 PPR fantasy points.
Chase Brown makes something out of nothing by getting skinny through the hole and keeping his balance on contact. pic.twitter.com/LzQmRVxQkO
— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) November 4, 2024
It remains to be seen if Moss's absence is just one game or multiple games, but Brown more than likely solidified his job as the 1A in the Cincinnati backfield. Up next are two tougher road matchups against the Ravens and Chargers, but Brown should be a volume play regardless. Fire him up in Week 10 even if Moss were to return.
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
With Ezekiel Elliott a healthy scratch in Week 9 due to disciplinary reasons, Dowdle saw a season-high 78.3% RB opportunity share. He turned his 18 opportunities into 107 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown was awesome, by the way:
DAK TO DOWDLE. HOW DID THIS GET COMPLETED??
📺: #DALvsATL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/gQOFAxj8r1— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
Dowdle also had a season-high 60% route participation rate in Week 9. His 36 routes run were by far a season-high. His previous high was just 10 routes run in Week 3. If that sticks, and he continues to see 5+ targets per game, his fantasy value goes way up.
Now, many were of the thought the Dallas Cowboys would be in the market for a running back at the trade deadline. However, teams with losing records typically aren't buyers. With the Cowboys' record currently sitting at just 3-5, they opted to keep the roster as is. That would mean a continued feature role for Dowdle going forward.
Currently, his competition consists of Elliott (who's washed and not in good standing with the team), Dalvin Cook (who's washed), and Hunter Luepke (a fullback). It's wheels up for Dowdle.
Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals
Gesicki only saw a 36.5% snap share in Week 9. However, he was targeted six times on his 25 routes (24% target rate) for 100 yards and two touchdowns. He could have had another touchdown on an incredible catch down the sideline that was ruled incomplete. Check out some of his work vs. the Raiders:
Mike Gesicki has established himself as the third best receiving option on the Bengals. He should be treated as WR3 when Higgins is back. He's beating CBs in man coverage and almost exclusively playing from WR positions. Here's every catch he made yesterday. pic.twitter.com/MZeg9C4aXz
— mike (@bengals_sans) November 4, 2024
Gesicki is putting up top-5 tight-end numbers without Tee Higgins in the lineup. In four games without one of the Bengals' top wideouts, Gesicki is averaging 5.5 catches for 70 yards on 6.8 targets per game. He's put up 15.1 PPR fantasy points per game in those games. Only George Kittle is averaging more points per game (18) this season.
An unfortunate season-ending injury to fellow tight end Erick All Jr. is another reason why Gesicki's value is rising coming out of Week 9. All ran 10 routes last weekend and had been siphoning work away from Gesicki. After All left the game, Gesicki found himself playing more snaps. If Higgins continues to miss time due to his quad injury, Gesicki's outlook will firmly remain inside the top 10 tight ends every week.
Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons
Per Fantasy Points Data, Mooney led all pass-catchers with a first-read target share of 53% in Week 9. He turned his nine targets into five catches for 88 yards and a touchdown. That's now two straight games with 86+ yards and a score.
Darnell Mooney to the end zone on 4th and 3!
📺: #DALvsATL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/Ppa1XG47rF— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
We'd be remiss not to mention Drake London and the injury he suffered early in Week 9. He played just 19% of the snaps before leaving the game. His hip pointer is considered day-to-day and is more about pain management than anything else.
Even still, Mooney has been neck-and-neck with London throughout the season in terms of production. Should London be forced to sit out in Week 10, Mooney should be considered a surefire WR1. Even if London can play, Mooney has averaged 7.6 targets per game this season and is currently the WR19 on a points-per-game basis.
Five of the Falcons' next seven games are indoors and they have some favorable matchups against the Vikings, Raiders, Giants, and Commanders in the fantasy playoffs. If there's one undervalued player to trade for ahead of your league's trade deadline, it's Mooney.
Other Risers: Evan Engram, Xavier Legette, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Taysom Hill, Tyrone Tracy Jr., DeAndre Hopkins
Week 10 Fantasy Football Fallers
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Waddle was drafted as a top-20 wide receiver this season. Through eight games, he's the WR67. He hasn't scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 1. Last season, Waddle caught five or more passes in eight of 14 (57%) regular-season games.
This season, he's done so just once, and he had just five targets in that game. That was back in Week 1. Since then, it's been a brutal showing for the Dolphins fourth-year wideout.
With De'Von Achane carving out a sizable role in the passing game this season, Waddle has been a distant third option in the passing game. Take a look at Tua Tagovailoa's target distribution in his four starts.
De'Von Achane's absurd pass-game role has buried Jaylen Waddle. Targets in Tua Tagovailoa's four starts this season:
1. Tyreek Hill 32
2. De'Von Achane 30
3. Jaylen Waddle 17— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 4, 2024
It shouldn't be, but it's a tough decision for most to sit a full-time receiver in a Tua-led Dolphins offense capable of exploding at any time. However, Waddle just hasn't lived up to expectations this season for one reason or another.
There are some nice matchups on the horizon, but Achane's deployment in the passing game leaves us with no other choice but to lower our Waddle projections for the remainder of the season.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
After registering a 74.1% RB opportunity share in Week 8, Cook saw 64% of the RB opportunities in Week 9. For a third straight week, Cook found himself with a snap share under 55%. With Ray Davis continuing to perform on his limited touches, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Cook continues to lose snaps and work to the rookie.
RAY DAVIS. 63-yard TD for the lead!
📺: #MIAvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/N5btgphjZ2— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
Cook isn't all of a sudden in danger of his starting job in Buffalo or anything like that. But there are two other running backs in that room who are very capable of doing a lot of the same things Cook can do, if not better.
Davis has shown off his running ability, and of course, Ty Johnson is a passing-down specialist. Some of Bills Mafia is even suggesting Davis is a better back than Cook:
Bills fans… its time to start having the uncomfortable conversation… Ray Davis>>>James Cook
— Sam Castronova (@Castro_for_3) November 4, 2024
But that doesn't matter so long as Buffalo trots Cook out there most of the time. However, he lost a little bit of work in Week 9 and Davis was able to capitalize. Let's see if that continues in Week 10 and beyond. Keep an eye on this evolving situation.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Chubb had 15 carries in Week 9, but that resulted in just 39 yards (2.6 yards per carry). He now has 113 yards on 42 carries this season. That's just 2.7 yards per carry. The offense has struggled at times, but the opportunities have been there for Chubb. The problem is, he's not looking like his old, explosive self.
Among 56 RBs with min. 40 rush attempts per @FantasyPtsData, Nick Chubb ranks:
*Worst by Yards Per Carry (2.69)
*6th-worst by Yards After Contact/Attempt (1.90)
*11th-worst by Explosive Run Rate (2.4%)
He ranked top-5 in all three categories back in 2022.
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) November 4, 2024
Another concerning data point for Chubb is that he ran just nine routes to Jerome Ford's 30 in Week 9. In the case of a trailing game script, it appears Chubb will be completely removed from the game plan. This could lead to some rough games for Chubb against tough opponents such as the Steelers, Broncos, and Chiefs in the coming weeks.
Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Etienne returned after a two-game absence to just a 31% snap share. For the first time this season, Tank Bigsby ran more routes (16) than Etienne (12). He had just six total touches for a 35% RB opportunity share.
This was in a game the Jaguars played from behind, which would normally have resulted in more snaps for Etienne. Either he was limited coming off the injury or Bigsby simply passed him in the pecking order.
Etienne started Week 9 playing more than Bigsby but then had a bad drop that led to an interception. After that moment, it was mostly Bigsby for the remainder of the game. It almost feels as if Etienne was put in the doghouse by head coach Doug Pederson.
Zack Baun lays out for the interception!
📺: #JAXvsPHI on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/pzTokw8zIl— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
With Bigsby essentially taking over the backfield, it wouldn't come as that big of a surprise for the 2-7 Jaguars to part ways with Etienne. But as long as he remains a Jaguar, he's unplayable in fantasy football.
Jacksonville also has two brutal games coming up against two stout run defenses in the Vikings and Lions. Like with Waddle, Etienne was an early round pick who has disappointed fantasy managers in a big way this season.
Other Fallers: Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Raheem Mostert, Jalen Coker, Xavier Worthy
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