RADIO
Week 9 is officially in the books and believe it or not, we're now halfway through the 2022 season. We have a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 10 and beyond.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 9 of the NFL season.
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Week 10 Fantasy Football Risers
Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers
Palmer hadn't played since Week 6 after suffering a concussion, but he stepped right into the Chargers' WR1 role in Week 9 with both Mike Williams (ankle) and Keenan Allen (hamstring) sidelined. Palmer saw a team-high 10 targets for a 23.3% target share. His 106 receiving yards in Week 9 was a career-high for him.
Williams is expected to miss at least the next few weeks, while there's no telling what's going on with Allen's hamstring, but he reportedly suffered a setback last week. With both guys out, Palmer registered a 91% snap share. In five games he's been above an 85% snap share this season, he's averaging 9.8 targets per game.
With favorable matchups against the 49ers, Chiefs, Cardinals, Raiders, Dolphins, and Titans on the horizon, expect more big lines from Josh Palmer in the next few weeks with both Williams and Allen hobbled.
Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers
I realize Aaron Rodgers hasn't been great, but that doesn't mean his WR1 can't be great for fantasy football. That WR1 is Allen Lazard, and he now finds himself cemented as "the guy" after Romeo Doubs suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 9. Doubs will be out for 4-6 weeks with the injury.
Lazard was targeted a season-high 10 times in Week 9. He caught four balls for 87 yards and a touchdown and had another catch overturned. He ran 44 routes on 47 Rodgers dropbacks, good for a 93.6% route participation. He'll now be competing with Sammy Watkins, Samori Toure, and rookie Christian Watson for wide receiver targets going forward.
On the season, Lazard has finished as a top-16 WR in three of the last five weeks thanks in large part to his ability to find pay dirt. He has scored a touchdown every 10.2 targets this season as one of Rodgers' most trusted guys in the red zone. Expect this to continue as the season goes on. It might become even more prevalent with Doubs out for an extended period of time.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Fields looks like an entirely different player now than he did in the first month of the season. From Weeks 1 through 4, Fields averaged just 10.4 fantasy points per game (PPG). From Week 5 on, he's averaged 28.7 PPG. That's good for QB3 on a per-game basis behind just Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
The Bears are finally figuring out how to play to Fields' strengths as well. More designed runs are being called, and the team is playing more up-tempo now than it did early in the season. In fact, the Bears are averaging 70.3 plays per game in their last three games. In the month of September, they were dead last, averaging just 53 plays per game. And in Chase Claypool's first game with Chicago, Fields threw the ball a season-high 28 times.
Fields has established himself as one of the great dual-threat quarterbacks we crave in fantasy football, right up there with Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson. In his last four games, he's averaging 102 rushing yards on 12.3 attempts per game. He has scored a touchdown on the ground in each of his last three games.
Here's a bold take I had recently, and some actionable advice should you be feeling bold as well:
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
I'll be honest, it felt weird writing "Minnesota Vikings" next to T.J. Hockenson's name. But with that trade to Minnesota comes new life for Hockenson, the former eighth-overall pick in 2019.
Unlike other players traded right before the deadline, Hockenson was the exact opposite of limited in his first game with his new team. In fact, he played on a season-high 91% of the snaps and caught a season-high nine balls in his first game with the Vikings. He ran 37 routes on 43 Kirk Cousins dropbacks, good for 86% route participation. That's a number he eclipsed just twice this season in Detroit.
Hockenson has also never played with a field stretcher like Justin Jefferson. Jefferson's ability to take the top off a defense should also help Hockenson see steady targets underneath. With the move from Detroit to Minnesota, Hockenson is now locked in as a top-seven option on a weekly basis moving forward. Outside of his blowup Week 4 performance, he hadn't eclipsed TE11 in any given week with the Lions.
Other Risers: James Conner, Christian Kirk, Antonio Gibson, Garrett Wilson
Week 10 Fantasy Football Fallers
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins acquired Jeff Wilson Jr. at the trade deadline and played him on 50% of the snaps. That was more than Mostert, who saw fewer than 50% of the snaps for the first time since Week 1. Wilson also had a slightly higher RB opportunity share than Mostert in his first game with the team (52.2%).
Prior to being dealt to the Broncos, Mostert's previous backfield running mate, Chase Edmonds, hadn't gotten more than seven total touches since Week 1. Wilson nearly doubled that in his first game with the Dolphins!
From Weeks 2 through 8, Mostert was running an average of 18.1 routes per game. In Week 9, playing alongside Wilson, Mostert ran just 12 routes for a route participation rate of just 38.7%. He may still get his opportunities, but it looks like Wilson will receive a bigger piece of the pie than Edmonds, and that doesn't bode super well for Mostert going forward.
D'Onta Foreman, Carolina Panthers
For two weeks prior to Week 9, Foreman was looking like a league-winner due to his massive workload. That took a nosedive in Week 9 vs. the Bengals, however, as Foreman touched the ball just nine times after amassing 21.5 touches per game in Weeks 7 and 8.
The difference? The Panthers were blown out by the Bengals in Week 9, thus limiting Foreman's touches. This will be a concern going forward as well, as we shouldn't realistically expect one of the worst teams in the league to remain competitive on a weekly basis.
Meanwhile, Chuba Hubbard should return soon, which would put another damper on Foreman's workload. With multiple concerns piling onto one another, it's probably best to get out of the D'Onta Foreman business now before it's too late.
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
Those that risked it and started Swift in Week 9 probably weren't too pleased he only played 16% of the snaps. We knew he'd be limited, but we didn't know he'd be THAT limited after playing 55% of the snaps in Week 8.
Swift got just five touches after getting 10 the week prior. The next day, head coach Dan Campbell had this to say about Swift and his workload going forward:
He's just "hopeful" to give him a little bit more work this week. From the sound of it, the Lions will continue to play Swift at less than 100% rather than just shelve him for a few weeks to completely heal.
Fantasy managers will have a weekly conundrum on their hands if Swift continues to play in a limited fashion. It also certainly doesn't help that Jamaal Williams has the goal-line role on lock.
Michael Carter, New York Jets
Carter out-touched newly-acquired James Robinson 11 to five in Week 8. But after a full week of practice and a chance to become more acclimated to the offense, Robinson out-touched Carter 15 to 13 in Week 9. Carter still found the endzone against the Bills, but his snap share ticked down, while J Rob's got up to 40%.
Also, Carter ran 21 routes to Robinson's nine in Week 8. In Week 9, however, Carter and Robinson both ran 11 routes, good for just a 37.9% route participation for both guys.
Based on the week-to-week usage, it appears Robinson is trending up, while Carter is trending down. It's not to say Carter won't have any value going forward, but temper expectations. The Jets have their bye week in Week 10, so it's possible Robinson becomes even more involved after another two weeks with the team.
Maybe now is the time to "sell high" on Carter coming off 76 rushing yards and a score against the Bills.
Other Fallers: Khalil Herbert, Eno Benjamin, Isiah Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
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