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Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/12/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
It's been a minute since I have researched home run props, as I am usually on the strikeout prop beat, but here goes nothing!
I am zeroing in on a few very good hitting environments on the late-night slate and a few pitchers with really bad splits against one handedness of hitter or another.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, August 12, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/14/2026)
Tyler Soderstrom OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+362, DraftKings)
We don’t have a Coors Field game, but we have arguably the next best venue for home runs as the Athletics are playing at their temporary home in Sacramento.
Sutter Health Park is a minor league stadium that has one of the best park factors for left-handed hitters in all of baseball. The wind also happens to be blowing out tonight around 10 mph or even potentially a few ticks higher to give hitters an added boost.
The Athletics lineup isn’t as dangerous without Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers in there, but Soderstrom is no slouch as 10 of his 19 home runs have come off righties this season and he sports a .485 SLG and .854 OPS against them.
Tyler Soderstrom - Sacramento Athletics (18) pic.twitter.com/D5CxsgFpeU
— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) August 8, 2026
11 of his 19 home runs have come at home, too. I like Kumar Rocker as a pretty solid young pitcher, but he’s had his issues with lefties this season. Rocker has allowed 10 home runs to southpaws, a .458 SLG, and 12% Barrel%.
He can’t afford to make a mistake in the zone with his fastball or slider tonight, or Soderstrom is going to yank one into the right field stands.
Jac Caglianone OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280, BetMGM)
For our second HR prop, we stay out west at Angels Stadium, where we have winds blowing out, too. This venue is an underrated hitters’ park and it has certainly been extra friendly to opposing hitters this season as the Angels continue to struggle to put together a decent starting pitching staff.
Former Orioles prospect Grayson Rodriguez toes the rubber tonight and it’s been a brutal return to the majors for him this season after missing all of last year with arm surgery.
Rodriguez has an ERA over 9.00 at home so far and is getting hit hard by hitters from both sides of the plate.
Lefties have done some serious damage as G-Rod has allowed a .336 wOBA, .250 ISO, and 12% Barrel% to them thus far.
Jac Caglianone Goes 4-for-4 With 2 Home Runs and 4 RBIs 🔥
4-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 4 H, 12 TB
All Hits & Home Runs: pic.twitter.com/if66ZVRZKW
— Baseball Performances (@MLBPerformances) August 9, 2026
Enter Caglianone, who’s the best lefty power bat in this KC lineup.
Cags has 21 home runs on the season, 15 of which have come off right-handed pitching.
He has shown some elite power in the strong side of his split, slashing .280/.559/.853 against righties with a massive 21% barrel rate.
Rodriguez has been going heavy four-seamer with his approach this year, but his heater is getting hammered far too often. If Cags can sit on a fastball where he likes it, he’s going to hit one a very long way tonight in L.A.
