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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 3 of the 2025-26 season on 8/30/2025. He picks out the best plays and looks at how best to target the fixtures for fantasy purposes.
Matchday 2 was packed full of action and drama. It started with a hammering and ended with a 16-year-old scoring a 100th-minute winner. There was no shortage of excitement, controversy, and memorable moments in between. The EPL is very much back!
Here, we'll be looking at the best betting plays for Matchday 3 and where you can gain an edge in your fantasy lineups. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Also, never bet what you can't afford to lose.
There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week on RotoBaller.com, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews articles. All of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@F1FantasyEuan, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @BradMayorFPL, and yours truly, @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Betting Picks
Tottenham Hotspur (-137) vs. Bournemouth (+340) - 10:00 a.m. ET - Saturday, August 30
Spurs could find themselves top of the table as we head into the international break. But they'll need to beat a Bournemouth side that scored the third most away goals in the league last season (35). However, it's not the number of goals or the result we're interested in here. Instead, we're going to play the corners and cards markets.
Bournemouth averaged six corners a game last season, the seventh most in the league. Only Chelsea (16) has taken more corners than Bournemouth (15) after the first two weeks of the season. Bournemouth had at least six corners in 11 of their 19 away games last campaign and seven at Liverpool a fortnight ago.
The Cherries had six corners in this fixture back in March. Tottenham has conceded 12 corners in their two games, five of which came at home to Burnley. Bournemouth poses a much greater attacking threat than Burnley and should have no problem winning six corners here.
We'll also be playing a parlay with four or more cards to be shown. That occurred in both meetings between these two last season. Bournemouth's been shown two yellow cards in each of their opening two games this season. Spurs were shown four last weekend, after having none in the opening game.
The referee for this fixture will be Simon Hooper. Hooper has dished out five yellow cards in each of his first two matches this season. He also gave Newcastle United a red card on Monday after a recommendation to review a decision by VAR.
Despite averaging the second-fewest fouls awarded per game in the EPL last season...
Hooper averaged the fourth most yellow cards per game. His yellow card per game average was the most among all referees to have officiated at least 20 EPL fixtures.
* statistics and graphics courtesy of whoscored.com
Betting Pick: Bournemouth over 5.5 corners (+135) 1.5 units
Betting Pick: Single game parlay - Over 3.5 total cards and Bournemouth over 5.5 corners (+200) 1 unit
Nottingham Forest (-152) vs. West Ham United (+420) - 9:00 a.m. ET - Sunday, August 31
It's been a disastrous start to the season for West Ham. After conceding eight goals in their first two league games, the Hammers were dumped out of the EFL Cup on Tuesday, losing 3-2 at Wolves. On the pitch, Forest have been good. Off it, and there are ongoing issues between the manager and owner.
Eight goals is the most West Ham United have ever conceded across their opening two games of a top-flight season. 👀 pic.twitter.com/tUmuFgAPuF
— Squawka (@Squawka) August 22, 2025
Forest are the heavy favourites and I expect them to win. But we'll be playing some individual player bets in this one. Firstly, Chris Wood to score is at a good price. He bagged a brace on the opening weekend of the season and scored 11 goals in 18 games at the City Ground last season.
That included a goal in this fixture last November. Three of the eight goals West Ham has conceded in the league have come from headers, and they conceded three goals from corners last week. Wood scored eight headers last season and is in a great spot to score again here.
We'll also be playing Dan Ndoye to score or assist in the game. He's done that in his first two games of the season after joining Forest in the summer. Right-wingers facing West Ham have got an assist in each game this season, which is where Ndoye operates from.
Betting Pick: Chris Wood to score (+125) 1 unit
Betting Pick: Dan Ndoye to score or assist (+220) 1 unit
Betting Pick: Single game parlay - Wood to score or assist and Ndoye to score or assist (+480) 0.5 units
Aston Villa (-108) vs. Crystal Palace (+300) - 2:00 p.m. ET - Sunday, August 31
Neither side has gotten off to a strong start this season. Villa has failed to score in their two games so far. Meanwhile, Palace has found the net just once. However, we're going to go with recent history and a back three of more goals being scored in the final game of Matchday 3.
The last four league meetings between these two have totaled 18 goals, with at least four goals being scored in each of them. Palace will miss Eberchi Eze, following his transfer to Arsenal, but still has enough firepower and creativity to score plenty of goals.
It's difficult to envisage Villa blanking for a third straight game. The last time Villa did that was in July 2020 (the Covid-19-interrupted season). Palace may also be without captain and centre-back Marc Guéhi as he continues to be linked with a move away from the club.
🚨 Despite reports on Man City and more clubs, Marc Guehi situation has not changed: Liverpool is his favorite destination.
Guehi wants #LFC, talks still ongoing for deal to happen before end of the window.
If not possible with Palace, Liverpool will be on it for 2026. pic.twitter.com/3hNsSxTCNE
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) August 26, 2025
Betting Pick: Over 2.5 total goals (-103) 2 units
Parlay: Bournemouth over 5.5 corners, Chris Wood to score, and Aston Villa/Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals (+947) 1 unit
Fantasy Premier League Game Previews
Every matchday, we will look at games to target and avoid in fantasy for attack and defense based on what the oddsmakers are pricing. We'll also be giving out some individual players worth consideration based on how games are expected to play out.
Attack
Tottenham versus Bournemouth and Manchester City's trip to Brighton are the two shortest-priced games for over 2.5 total goals. With odds of -175 for there to be at least three goals scored, the implied probability of that occurring is 63.64%.
Although Brighton and City both blanked last weekend, they combined for seven goals in the two meetings last season. Spurs and Bournemouth both kept clean sheets last week, but drew 2-2 in this fixture last season. I anticipate a similar matchup on Saturday. Both games should be targeted for fantasy attacking returns.
The game to avoid is Everton's trip to Wolves. Wolves haven't found the net in the league this season, while Everton blanked in their opening away game of the season. Everton scored the second fewest away goals (16) in the EPL last season.
Wolves have the lowest xG (expected goals) total so far. Everton have been able to bring in some new attacking players, so I'd rather back them to score than the hosts. But with an implied probability of 60% for there to be two or fewer total goals in the game, I'd be looking elsewhere for attacking returns.
* courtesy of whoscored.com
Defense
Wolves hosting Everton is the game with the shortest odds for under 2.5 total goals. The only other matchup with minus odds for fewer than three goals is Brentford's trip to Sunderland. This is a game I'd rather avoid completely for fantasy purposes.
Sunderland did score three against West Ham. But we've established how poor West Ham has been defensively to start the season. Sunderland then blanked at Burnley last week. Brentford has scored in each of their two games so far, and a 1-1 scoreline here wouldn't surprise me.
I'm not confident of a clean sheet for either team. One team that does look capable of keeping a clean sheet is Newcastle United. They kept out Aston Villa two weeks ago and kept 13 clean sheets last season. They travel to Leeds United, whose only goal this season came from the penalty spot.
Newcastle still lacks a striker and will be without Anthony Gordon following his red card on Monday. The Magpies will focus on keeping a clean sheet and building on a strong defensive display to get something from Saturday's game.
Bruno Guimarães did not hold back when asked about Alexander Isak 👀
Newcastle are missing their star frontman 😅 pic.twitter.com/BWj0WBiO2x— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) August 26, 2025
Players to Target
Erling Haaland is the main striker to target this week. While some will have been put off by City blanking last week, the Norwegian forward has five goals and an assist in the five games he's played against Brighton. He's got an attacking return in all five games.
City will switch things around in support of Haaland, so I'd be cautious pairing Haaland with any midfielder. As we're backing Forest pair Wood and Ndoye to provide attacking returns, it also makes sense to play them both in any fantasy format. Wood, especially, given his propensity for goals.
Chris Wood is currently the biggest xG overperformer in the Premier League with two goals from just 0.57xG. pic.twitter.com/XnQgv6OhqV
— WhoScored (@WhoScored) August 26, 2025
It's also worth noting that Nottingham Forest led the league in set-piece goals (20) last season. Elliot Anderson has taken seven of Forest's eight corners this season. He also had three shots last week and makes a nice option for a third Forest player this week.
On the defensive end, Kieran Trippier is Newcastle's main set-piece taker. If we back Newcastle to keep a clean sheet, having a defender with a clear route to an attacking return is optimal. Newcastle may need to rely on set-pieces to find a route to goal this Saturday.
Matchday 2 Review
Below is a quick recap of how our picks last week turned out. We'll be tracking all our picks throughout the season. Good luck with those FPL and DFS teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
Last weekend started positively, with Chelsea dismantling West Ham. After being let down by Aston Villa, we were agonizingly close to a profitable weekend. Forest hit the woodwork in injury time, to deny us what would have been a win and a big winning weekend.
Igor Jesus almost steals it in stoppage-time! ⏰ pic.twitter.com/nZs4nxY8rU
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) August 24, 2025
Luck wasn't on our side, and it acted as a reminder of the fine margins that decide games at the highest level. We fared better with our fantasy picks. Burnley kept a clean sheet, as we suggested they would. And on the player front, Hugo Ekitike scored again for Liverpool while Mo Salah picked up an assist.
Patrick Dorgu had a quiet game for Manchester United. Fulham's late equalizer denied us a clean sheet for Dorgu. Kaoru Mitoma also had a quiet game, registering just one shot at Everton. Both picks failed to provide the expected returns.
Matchday 2: -1.86 units (6 units played)
Season: -4.22 units (12 units played)
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