EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 9: English Premier League

October 19, 2023

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 9 of the 2023/24 season, starting on 10/21/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.

The Premier League is back and so is the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

We're back following the second international break of the young season. With eight games on Saturday, there is no shortage of action to kick things off. We bagged a parlay for the third straight week a fortnight ago, so let's hope the week off doesn't stop any momentum we have building. And a reminder that you can view the highlights of each team's previous game by clicking on their name.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@LucidMediaDFS, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Saturday, October 21, 2023

Liverpool (-295) vs. Everton (+650) - 07:30 am ET

Score prediction: Liverpool 3 - 0 Everton

Following a five-game win streak, Liverpool go into the Merseyside Derby winless in their last two games. They've scored at least two goals in six of their eight EPL games and scored three in all three home games. Six of the seven points Everton has picked up this season have come in their last three games. Seven of their nine goals scored have come in those three games also.

Liverpool has kept a clean sheet in each of the last three Merseyside Derbies. I alluded to it in the FPL Roundtable article, but Everton's nine goals scored all came in four games, blanking in the other four. The opponents they've scored against are placed 15th or lower while the four goalless outings came against teams placed 14th or better. Liverpool's conceded just two goals in three home games and a win to nil for the home side looks likely.

FPL Pick: Dominik Szoboszlai

Szoboszlai's 40 shot-creating actions this season is the third most in the league. The Liverpool midfield is much more settled and the Hungarian has been a big part of it all season. He's tallied a goal involvement in two of his three home games and showed off his shooting prowess on international duty.

🇭🇺 Dominik Szoboszlai 🔥#EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/MAMciIt6rm

— UEFA EURO 2024 (@EURO2024) September 7, 2023

Bournemouth (+140) vs. Wolves (+190) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 - 2 Wolves

Bournemouth is one of two teams still without a win and their five goals scored is the fewest in the league. They come into this game on the back of a three-game losing streak in which they conceded 10 goals and scored just one. Wolves backed up their memorable win against Manchester City with a creditable draw against Aston Villa and now sport a modest three-game unbeaten run.

Bournemouth not only has the fewest goals scored, they have conceded the third most goals (18). At home, they've found the net just once in four games. After replacing manager Gary O'Neil with Andoni Iraola in the Summer, the former now has the chance to get one over his former employers. Pressure is mounting on Iraola and that will filter into the players who still haven't been able to adapt to their new manager's desired playing style.

FPL Pick: Pedro Neto

Neto has quietly been one of the most in-form players in FPL. He's tallied a goal involvement in each of his last six games (six assists and one goal) including three assists against sides currently in the top five. Hwang Hee-chan leads the team in goals scored (five) but Neto has been the driving force behind Wolves' solid start to the season.

Brentford (-130) vs. Burnley (+350) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 1 Burnley

After four games, people were praising Brentford for being unbeaten. They now come into this weekend's fixture without a win in their last six EPL games and are searching for a first home win of the season. Burnley led Chelsea in their last game and looked like they could make it back-to-back wins. However, a second-half blitz saw Chelsea run out comfortable winners and Burnley finds themselves in the relegation zone on goal difference.

Brentford has been scoring goals despite their struggles. No one in the bottom half has scored more (11) and Newcastle United is the only side to have kept a clean sheet against them. They only have one clean sheet to their name and conceded eight goals in their four home games. Burnley's three away goals are second-fewest in the league but they've also conceded just four on their travels so this should still be a close affair.

FPL Pick: Yoane Wissa

Originally, I picked Keane Lewis-Potter as a bit of a left-field play. That was based on Burnley's struggles against left-wingers this season. With Lewis-Potter out, I expect Brentford to line up with a front three of Wissa, Bryan Mbeumo and Neil Maupay. Given their recent struggles, I don't think Brentford will rely on young players like Michael Olakigbe so I'll play a bit safer with Wissa to put away a chance or two.

For those interested - the individual numbers for big chances missed are as follows:

Yoane Wissa - 4
Bryan Mbeumo - 3
Keane Lewis-Potter - 3
Kevin Schade - 2
Christian Norgaard - 2
Ethan Pinnock - 2
Nathan Collins - 1

— TalkBees (@talkbees_) October 8, 2023

Manchester City (-245) vs. Brighton (+550) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Manchester City 4 - 1 Brighton

City's 1-0 loss at Arsenal last time out saw them lose back-to-back league games for the first time since December 2018. Their last three-game winless streak was in April 2017 and their last three-game losing stretch came in March 2016. Brighton bounced back from their 6-1 hammering at Aston Villa by drawing against Liverpool and remain in sixth place.

Brighton's 21 goals scored leads the league but their 16 goals conceded are the fourth most. Brighton's games have seen an average of 4.6 goals per game and while they are capable of scoring bundles, they've conceded 10 in their last three games in all competitions. Manchester City won't lose a third straight and could pick apart Brighton, much like Aston Villa did on matchday seven.

FPL Pick: Erling Haaland

Haaland has failed to score in consecutive league games but still remains third for total points scored (55) this season. He failed to score in back-to-back EPL games once last season and like this time, were both away games. Haaland has four goals and one assist in his three home games and while I don't believe he'll tally 23 points against Brighton as Ollie Watkins did three weeks ago, I do expect him to be worthwhile captaining again.

Newcastle United (-220) vs. Crystal Palace (+600) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 0 Crystal Palace

Newcastle's 2-2 draw with West Ham in their last game leaves them with a four-game unbeaten run entering this weekend. It did end a run of three consecutive clean sheets. Palace played well last time out but ultimately failed to score for the second time in three games and have scored just twice in their last four EPL games. A lengthy injury list hasn't helped and it's difficult to see them getting anything on Saturday.

Newcastle's 9.9 xG (expected goals) at home this season is the second most in the league. Last season, they led the league with 43.3 xG at home. Their 6.1 xGD (expected goal difference) at home also leads the league. Palace's lack of goals is a concern and despite being separated by one place and one point in the table, Newcastle's by far the better side on paper. While Palace always puts up a fight, a comfortable home win looks inevitable.

FPL Pick: Kieran Trippier

Remember when FPL managers were proclaiming Trippier as being a waste of money? Five assists in three games have left the full-back as the second-highest scoring (49) defender in the game. With the probability of a clean sheet on the cards too, Trippier is an ideal option to return a third double-digit points haul in four games.

It was a slow start to the season for Kieran Trippier 🔻

But his owners have been feasting in recent Gameweeks 😋#FPL pic.twitter.com/3SKgDqKkJx

— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) October 14, 2023

Nottingham Forest (-160) vs. Luton Town (+450) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Luton Town

Forest's goalless draw with Palace was their third draw in four games. They will have to do without top scorer Taiwo Awoniyi who is set to be out until November. His absence was noticeable against Palace. Luton come into this week having lost two games after picking up a first EPL win and their inability to build on that victory leaves them outside the relegation zone only on goal difference.

Forest's 2-0 defeat at Manchester City is the only time this season in which one of their games was decided by more than one goal. Luton's last six games have all been decided by one goal. Both sides are set up to keep games close and this weekend looks like it'll be a tight game. Without Awoniyi, Forest may just lack enough of an attacking edge to take all three points.

FPL Pick: Alfie Doughty

Another pick from left field. And this one is a left-back. Doughty has 32 shot-creating actions so far which ranks tied-12th most in the entire league. More remarkable than that number coming from a defender, is that Doughty has started just five games. His 6.06 shot-creating actions/90 minutes are the third most in the league. He is likely to face off against Serge Aurier who can be exposed defensively, too.

Chelsea (+195) vs. Arsenal (+135) - 12:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Chelsea 1 - 1 Arsenal

Chelsea come into this weekend following back-to-back wins for the first time this season. It's only the second time Chelsea won consecutive league games since matchday 12 last season. After losing to Manchester City 12 consecutive times in the league, Arsenal ended that losing streak and kept themselves firmly in the title picture. They are set to be without star player Bukayo Saka who has been absent for club and country lately.

Arsenal boasts a 100% record away from home without conceding a goal. The three wins came against Crystal Palace, Everton, and Bournemouth so this will be their toughest away test. Chelsea's finally showing signs of improvement and only conceded three goals in their four home games. Arsenal is unbeaten in their last four trips to Chelsea, winning the previous three, and a draw wouldn't be the worst result for either side.

FPL Pick: Gabriel Martinelli

After limping off on matchday five, Martinelli returned with a bang against Manchester City, scoring the winner as a half-time substitute. He picked up two assists in the first four games of the season prior to getting injured and got hurt in the process of scoring a goal that was harshly ruled out. Saka's return to the lineup may open up more space for Martinelli on the opposite wing. Given Arsenal's upcoming fixtures, he should at least be on your watchlist.

Sheffield United (+600) vs. Manchester United (-240) - 03:00 pm ET

Score prediction: Sheffield United 0 - 3 Manchester United

Things haven't got much better for Sheffield United since their 8-0 shellacking, losing their last two games by an aggregate score of 5-1. They sit bottom of the table with a solitary point and the most goals conceded (22) in the league. Manchester United will hope their late heroics against Brentford will kick-start their season. Their only away win this season came against another newly promoted team when they beat Burnley 1-0.

As bad as Manchester United has been this season, it's difficult to see where Sheffield United will pick up their next point from. Sheffield United's -2.12 xGD/90 (expected goal difference per 90 minutes) is largely down to their 8-0 loss against Newcastle. But they have 7.9 xGA in their other three home games. The visitors should have no issue heading into their must-win Champions League tie in midweek.

FPL Pick: Rasmus Højlund

Højlund has yet to get his EPL goal account up and running. He has scored three goals in two Champions League games and has a 1.2 xG tally in the EPL. There'll be no better chance to score his first league goal for Manchester United and start showing FPL managers why the Red Devils paid around $80m to sign him.

Sunday, October 22, 2023

Aston Villa (-105) vs. West Ham United (+270) - 11:30 am ET

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 1 West Ham United

Villa's three-game winning streak may have ended but they're still unbeaten in four EPL games. Only Brighton (21) and Newcastle United (20) have scored more than Villa (19) and they boast the league's best home record (three wins and a +11 goal difference). This will be West Ham's fourth game against a side to have finished in the top-7 last season in the last five matchdays. They have just one point from the three previous such games.

Villa has scored three or more goals in four of their eight games and all three home games. West Ham won't be pushovers and they have scored in every game this season. It's only last season's top-5 opponents that have scored more than one against West Ham and I can certainly see them taking something from this game. Villa's attack looks too unstoppable right now and I'm giving the hosts the edge.

FPL Pick: Ollie Watkins

One of the reasons why Villa's start has been so good is down to their main striker. Watkins has four goals and seven assists this season. His 59 points lead all of FPL and his five-goal involvements on matchday seven saw him score 23 points. That's as many as West Ham's Lucas Paquetá has in eight games. I don't expect a repeat but another double-digit return is plausible.

Combined attacking returns 👇

Ollie Watkins leading the pack 👏🏻#FPL #GW9 pic.twitter.com/ictnLnC69I

— Fantasy Football Hub (@FFH_HQ) October 15, 2023

Monday, October 23, 2023

Tottenham (-205) vs. Fulham (+500) - 03:00 pm ET

Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 0 Fulham

Tottenham entered the international break topping the league table. Against Luton, they failed to score two in a game for the first time this season but one goal was still enough to maintain their unbeaten start. Fulham had only scored five goals in their first seven games of the season but struck three past Sheffield United for their biggest win of the season. Their lack of a consistent goalscorer is telling.

Tottenham has scored two in each home game this season. Five of their six home goals have come in the second halves of games. They benefited from two own goals and three goals in injury time. They have ridden their luck somewhat but Fulham isn't a side that should cause them too many troubles. Although they also aren't likely to take a hammering.

FPL Pick: Dejan Kulusevski

While it's not a trend that will continue all season, it's notable that all seven of James Maddsion's goal involvements have come away from home. Kulusevski was part of the Sweden team that had their game abandoned in midweek and it would be fitting if he was able to find the net for a third time this season.

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay.

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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