Way Too Early Mock Draft - Rounds 7-10 Analysis

February 3, 2019

The RotoBaller staff conducted an early mock draft for the 2019 fantasy football season. Richard King recaps the picks in rounds 7-10, looking at the makeup of the rosters and rationale behind the picks made

The NFL season is all but over, with one tiny game left to be played. That hasn't stopped our expert staff from looking ahead to 2019 already.

As you may be aware from our earlier recaps, the NFL writers at Rotoballer decided that playoff football wasn't scratching the itch we had, so we decided to jump in and do a mock draft. If you missed the earlier write-ups that have been done then you can find Justin Carter's look at round one and Ben Rolfe's look at rounds 2 & 3 on those links then I picked up the baton with the review of rounds 4-6. Now it's time for some analysis on the 7-10 rounds, so here we are!

Now we are further through the draft, I'm going to get more into the selection of the player, rather than the roster fit. If you wanted to see the full draft board you can do that here. Otherwise, let's get into the picks!

Way Too Early Mock Draft (Redraft) - Rounds 7-10

 
Breaking Down The Rosters

Justin Carter

Pick 73: Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU)
Pick 96: Dion Lewis (RB, TEN)
Pick 97: O.J. Howard (TE, TB)
Pick 120: Tre'Quan Smith (WR, NO)

Watson as your QB is not bad at all- the rushing upside of his play means that you are likely to have a good floor each week, while the Texans are able to move the ball through the air with elite DeAndre Hopkins.

Lewis in the 8th is an interesting one, there is an obvious transition underway in Tennessee with a change in offensive coordinator, so the situation and split between him and Derrick Henry is unknown at this point. If Lewis is able to recapture the form that he had in New England then this is a steal, if he isn't then its a mid-round pick that can be cut without too much of a headache.

Howard at tight end is another player with the potential to outperform his draft position. Howard looked explosive in the games he was able to play last season, and in a tight end position that is muddled in the middle Howard at least offers the opportunity of breaking out into a mid-tier between the elite and the rest.

Smith's selection is one that I'm honestly not sure how to analyze- I don't hate the pick, and I don't love it. We have seen what Smith is capable of doing with Michael Thomas on the other side of the field, but we have also seen him disappoint in matchups that he was expected to do well in.

Kyle Richardson

Pick 74: Elijah McGuire (RB, NYJ)
Pick 95: Anthony Miller (WR, CHI)
Pick 98: Keke Coutee (WR, HOU)
Pick 119: Jalen Richard (RB, OAK)

Kyle made a great pick in McGuire. The Jets may have been banged up towards the end of the season, forcing his inclusion and were forced to put him in the lineup but he took the opportunity with both hands. The Jets backfield is currently up for grabs and McGuire has a great chance to make it his.

Miller and Coutee both had flashes of production this season, and Kyle is certainly thinking that there is more to come from both of them. Both receivers aren't the primary option on their respective teams, but with both being on effective offenses they should still have an opportunity to succeed.

Richard is one of those picks who at this stage of the draft is somewhat of a lottery ticket- he has a solid floor due to his receiving work but unless there are injuries in front of him he is unlikely to get too much usage.

Dom Petrillo

Pick 75: Kareem Hunt (RB)
Pick 94: Sammy Watkins (WR, KC)
Pick 99: Jay Ajayi (RB, PHI)
Pick 118: John Brown (WR, BAL)

Dom took that player that as of now has no team in Kareem Hunt. Currently, not in the league and without a team, this feels like a gamble given where we are. But he is a great talent when on the field and reports have surfaced that he could find a new home sooner than later.

Watkins is a good pick here - the Chiefs are a great offense and Watkins is hugely talented. If he is able to stay on the field and not in the treatment room, then he is a great option for Dom.

Ajayi is another selection who is risky but could pay off big time if he lands. Ajayi was injured early in the season and as of yet doesn't have a team for next year, but we have seen him be highly productive in the past with the Eagles and Dolphins. If he ends up as a lead back next year then he is a great value at this point in the draft.

Brown, I'm not sure about here at all. When the Ravens switched to Lamar Jackson the offense changed significantly, with fewer pass attempts- especially downfield. Brown is a great play in best-ball formats due to his downfield ability, but I'm not sure if he would get too much play time this season in fantasy lineups.

Richard King

Pick 76: James White (RB, NE)
Pick 93: Jared Goff (QB, LAR)
Pick 100: Michael Gallup (WR, DAL)
Pick 117: Adam Humphries (WR, TB)

In the middle rounds, I selected Patriots running back White. He was a great duo option with fellow running back Sony Michel. White is hugely used in the passing game, and therefore that gives him a good floor in any given week.

Goff at quarterback was a bit of a risky pick given who was remaining at the time, but I thought in selecting Goff I am giving myself the opportunity of having a quarterback on an effective offense. Paired up with Cooper Kupp allows me to stack two players on a high-powered offense.

In selecting wide receivers Gallup and Humphries I went with a similar strategy. Players that are both used in their respective team's offenses, both with a safe floor- especially considering where they were selected in the draft.

Ben Rolfe

Pick 77: Matt Breida (RB, SF)
Pick 92: Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Pick 101: Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)
Pick 116: D'Onta Foreman (RB, HOU)

The 49ers offense is an effective system for running backs. Breida has been highly effective this season and could be a good option to rotate between with Jerick McKinnon who will be hoping to return the faith that was put in him after a lost season due to injury.

Wilson has always been an effective fantasy option for the quarterback position since he entered the league. Wilson's rushing ability gives him a great floor while the effectiveness of the offense means that in any given week he can have a week winning performance.

Shepard didn't manage to build onto his previous season in the way that was hoped. However, Pat Shurmur built the career of slot receiver Adam Thielen in Minnesota and could do that in his second season in New York.

Foreman missed this season through injury. In his absence, both Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue showed their effectiveness in the Texans backfield, but that is no reason that the Texans won't put their faith in Foreman if he is able to recapture the performances in the previous season.

Matt Terelle

Pick 78: Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
Pick 91: Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE)
Pick 102: James Washington (WR, PIT)
Pick 115: Dede Westbrook (WR, JAX)

Kirk might not be the lead receiver on the Cardinals offense led by Larry Fitzgerald, and could be considered to be the third option with dual-threat David Johnson on the team, but the Cardinals offense should be better this season than it was in the previous season. Rookie quarterback Josh Rosen may have struggled this season but the offense really stalled in the early part of the season and should improve under different coaching and playcalling.

Gronkowski being selected here in the draft I think is more a reaction on the talk around retirement than anything else. Gronkowski may not have been the fantasy force that he has been in previous seasons, but on an offense that should be effective in New England, he has the opportunity to bounce back and be effective at a thin position.

Washington may end up being a steal if the rumors around Antonio Brown leaving the Steelers come true. At this point, Washington is the third option wide receiver, and should likely have fantasy value on an effective offense.

Westbrook is a dart throw on a Jaguars offense that is likely to have a different quarterback instead of the largely inconsistent Blake Bortles, but one that has shown the ability to have great games in the season.

Jason Katz

Pick 79: Robby Anderson (WR, NYJ)
Pick 90: LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF)
Pick 103: Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Pick 114: Curtis Samuel (WR, CAR)

Jason opted to have a balance in the middle rounds. Opting for Anderson in the seventh round gives something that is not normally available at this stage of the draft- a player who can give a week winning performance. The Jets seem to have found stability with their offense and Anderson should continue to be a big part of that.

McCoy being drafted in the 8th round just shows the fall from grace has nearly completely taken place. The Bills offense one of the worst in the league, combining that with the amount of wear that McCoy has had in the league means his best days are likely behind him- however, getting a starting running back at this point is never a bad thing.

Ekeler at this point should be considered to be a plus handcuff, meaning that he has more value than just that of a handcuff. When Gordon is on the sidelines it's Ekeler who is given the reins to the backfield, as well as being involved in the passing game.

Samuel had a great spell towards the end of the season and has great big play ability. The Panthers offense could be altered if quarterback Cam Newton misses the season as is currently expected which could give the opportunity for Samuel to get more opportunities going forward.

Pierre Camus

Pick 80: Marvin Jones (WR, DET)
Pick 89: Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Pick 104: Gus Edwards (RB, BAL)
Pick 113: Jameis Winston (QB, TB)

In selecting Jones at wide receiver, Pierre is putting faith in the Lions offense to be more effective than it was this season. Quarterback Matthew Stafford stalled this season, and fellow wide receiver Kenny Golladay broke out. Jones could return value as a great downfield option, as well as being involved in the red zone. There's also a chance the team moves on from him in the offseason.

Engram took a step back from his rookie season this year, but the Giants as a whole seemed to not be effective in their first season under a new offense. Engram is talented enough that he could easily recapture his rookie season form.

Edwards was highly effective for the Ravens once the decision to go with rookie Lamar Jackosn was made. Edwards is not used in the passing game which makes him hugely reliant on game flow, which makes him a risk to select- but it could be a risk worth taking at this point in the draft.

Winston should be the starter next season under Bruce Arians, which should help him immensely next season. The Buccanneers seemed unsure what direction to go into this season rotating between Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. On a highly effective offense, he is a great option as starting quarterback.

Brendan Kennealy

Pick 81: Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Pick 88: Ronald Jones II (RB, TB)
Pick 105: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB)
Pick 112: Chris Thompson (RB, WAS)

Brendan had a great run of selections in this portion of the draft.

Williams is the second receiver on a great offense, and even though tight end Hunter Henry is returning to the lineup he should still be given enough opportunity to be fantasy viable next season.

Jones should have a better season than he did as a rookie, as the Bucs seemed as though they didn't know which way to go at running back or quarterback and that affected Jones in a big way. Jones is a great pass catcher and with stability should be a decent fantasy option - especially with improved coaching.

The Packers depth chart at wide receiver is currently Davante Adams and then question marks. The secondary receiver in Green Bay seemed to rotate almost on a per game basis, but Valdes-Scantling has the opportunity to be on the field as either the second or third receiver on the team. He'll need to beat out fellow second-year player Equanimeous St. Brown though.

Thompson might well take a step back, with Derrius Guice coming back from a lost season. In a PPR format, Thompson could recapture his form of previous seasons and be a great fantasy addition to Brendan's roster.

Hamid Sandhu

Pick 82: Dante Pettis (WR, SF)
Pick 87: David Njoku (TE, CLE)
Pick 106: Nyheim Hines (RB, IND)
Pick 111: Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)

Hamid went for Pettis with his seventh pick and in a PPR format, he is a great selection. Pettis is arguably the second-best receiver on the team after George Kittle and while the 49ers are likely to try adding additional talent at the wide receiver position, Pettis should continue getting a lot of targets next season.

Njoku and Mayfield are two pillars on an offense that was much improved during the season. Njoku should be able to build on this season and be effective in the red zone. At a position that is top heavy in talent, Njoku is a player who could break out and beat his fantasy ADP this season. Mayfield is a great quarterback and should have fantasy value this season at just over streaming value. Stacked together, Hamid could be onto a winner with both positions.

The Colts seem to have made the decision to opt with Marlon Mack as their lead running back, who has shown he is effective when given the opportunity. Hines does have some value as he has been involved in the passing game, but unless Mack is injured he is unlikely to feature in fantasy lineups this season.

Cliff Clinton

Pick 83: Hunter Henry (TE, LAC)
Pick 86: Marquise Goodwin (WR, SF)
Pick 107: Kalen Ballage (RB, MIA)
Pick 110: Kenneth Dixon (RB, BAL)

Cliff selected the forgotten man in Henry for his tight end. During the offseason there was buzz around him, before he was injured and missed the season (I'm not counting the playoff game he appeared in) the Chargers are a great offense. While they didn't utilize the position this season, there wasn't the talent at the position to give Philip Rivers the option of putting passes that way.

Goodwin is a downfield receiver and has fallen out of favor with fantasy owners with other receiving options taking steps forward in Dante Pettis and George Kittle. A key point with that, however, is that this season was largely played without their star quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. If the 49ers get a full season of Garoppolo under center then Goodwin could easily return to be the fantasy darling that he was in the past.

Ballage had a good ending to the season, and with the Miami Dolphins likely to part with Frank Gore, has a good opportunity to split carries with Kenyan Drake. Ballage will look to be more involved in the coming season and be fantasy relevant.

Dixon is the man that just appears to never seem to have done enough to have been cut. Dixon has been injured and suspended but the Ravens have stuck by him. The Ravens backfield is an interesting one to monitor this offseason, with there being no clear-cut starting option this season.

Phil Clark

Pick 84: Eric Ebron (TE, IND)
Pick 85: Cam Newton (QB, CAR)
Pick 108: Antonio Callaway (WR, CLE)
Pick 109: Peyton Barber (RB, TB)

Phil decided to stay in the flames banking on Ebron continuing his impressive season with the Colts. The tight end position at this point is more a shot in the dark rather than being able to bank on targets but at least Ebron has a good touchdown opportunity in the red zone.

Newton's selection with the news that he might miss this season is risky- but that wasn't known at the time of making the pick. Newton had a poor end to the season, but with some rest over the offseason hopefully, the shoulder injury that clearly hampered him should be given time to recover.

Callaway and Barber are the start of the lottery ticket-type selections. Callaway was more effective later in the season and with the Browns having a full training camp with better coaching for their offense under Baker Mayfield, he has a great opportunity to build on that this season.

Barber is on a high-powered offense, that should take a step forward this season but with the uncertainty over the backfield with the change in head coach Barber may end up being a dud- but the risk here is minimal.

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