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Way Too Early Mock Draft - Rounds 4-6 Analysis


The NFL season isn't quite over, as the playoffs are just getting interesting. That hasn't stopped our expert staff from looking ahead to 2019 already.

As you may be aware from our earlier recaps, the NFL writers at Rotoballer decided that playoff football wasn't scratching the itch we had, so we decided to jump in and do a mock draft. If you missed the earlier write-ups that have been done then you can find Justin Carter's look at round one and Ben Rolfe's look at rounds 2 & 3 on those links. I've got the task of explaining how things went in rounds 4-6. While the earlier rounds are difficult (and in a lot of cases the picks make themselves) here is where things get interesting and strategies are unfolding.

If you wanted to follow the draft in real time then you can find our live board here. Otherwise, let's get into the picks!

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Way Too Early Mock Draft (Redraft) - Rounds 4-6

 

Breaking Down the Rosters

Phil Clark - Pick 37: Kenny Golladay (WR, DET), Pick 60: Chris Carson (RB, SEA), Pick 61: D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)

Phil's roster is taking shape with previous picks Nick Chubb, Michael Thomas & Sony Michel with the above. Phil has great options going forward. Golladay built upon his impressive start to the season to be a great fantasy asset down the stretch- albeit with some poor performances around the fantasy playoffs. If Matthew Stafford is able to recapture his form in previous seasons this is a great pick.

Carson and Moore are great flex options for Phil. Carson has put his hand up as the lead back in Seattle with impressive performances especially during the fantasy playoffs, and Moore was able to showcase his talent in Carolina.

Cliff Clinton - Pick 38: Robert Woods (WR, LAR), Pick 59: Andrew Luck (QB, IND), Pick  62: Emmanuel Sanders (WR, DEN)

Cliff needed to select some wide receivers for this roster to pair with his earlier round picks of Le'Veon Bell, James Conner, and Amari Cooper. Woods paired with Cooper, in my opinion, is a great choice. Cooper has a tendency to boom or bust, so to pair him with a player who gives consistency allows you to have both in your lineup each week and feel confident that they won't both bust.

Andrew Luck being selected as the second quarterback off the board isn't a huge shock- but it does highlight the change in the seas at the position. The fifth round may be a bit high for him, but Cliff clearly wanted to add him to his roster and the chances of him being there in the seventh round would be slim.

Sanders missed the end of the season through injury, but is clearly the alpha receiver in Denver and should be rotated between the wide receiver positions and flex position throughout the season.

Hamid Sandhu - Pick 39: Kerryon Johnson (RB, DET), Pick 58: Julian Edelman (WR, NE), Pick 63: Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA)

Hamid filled his flex spot with Johnson having previously selected Melvin Gordon, Joe Mixon, and Brandin Cooks. Johnson gave the Detroit Lions the running back that they haven't had for many seasons.

Edelman is my favorite bunch. After returning from suspension Edelman quickly picked up from where he left in previous seasons, finishing the season with 74 receptions and 850 yards. If he had played a full season it would be a season with around 100 receptions and 1,100 yards. In the fifth round that's a great selection and value for a WR2.

Baldwin is a pick I'm unsure on- he finished the season well but has an ability to go missing. The Seahawks could return to form of previous seasons, but given the players that were on the board, I think I would rather have gone for a primary receiver like Robinson from Chicago.

Brendan Kennealy - Pick 40: Leonard Fournette (RB, JAX), Pick 57: Jerick McKinnon (RB, SF), Pick 64: Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)

Fournette, in all honesty, is potentially going to be the biggest steal in drafts next season. He might not be used in the passing game, but the Jaguars were hit by injury on their offensive line and missed his presence. Falling this far in the draft is a product of that poor season and the uncertainty over his future, combining him with previously selected running back Aaron Jones and Brendan is in business.

Selecting McKinnon gives him somewhat of an insurance policy for both running backs selected. McKinnon was a big name in the draft season before being struck down by injury and should likely be involved heavily in the backfield in San Fransisco, in selecting McKinnon he has given himself a great opportunity to switch between Fournette and McKinnon and avoid their injuries and poor matchups throughout the season.

Rodgers selection in round six is more on his name and ability to write off the season as a dud year. Rodgers finished the season with just 25 passing touchdowns, the Packers are likely to improve their offense with a change in offensive coaching, if that happens then Brendan has locked up his QB position for the season.

Pierre Camus - Pick 41: Derrius Guice (RB, WAS), Pick 56: Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL), Pick 65: Royce Freeman (RB, DEN)

Pierre went zero RB in the first two rounds, selecting Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr following that pick with running back Marlon Mack in the third round. Guice is a good option, albeit we don't know how he will perform in the NFL yet, having missed his rookie season through injury. If Guice lives up to the hype around him after he was drafted by the Washington Redskins then he should be a great value.

Selecting Ridley in the fifth is questionable, having already selected Jones in the first round. Given the early picks of two wide receivers and having the alpha receiver on the team, he has really committed to the offense of the Falcons to determine his fantasy season before we are even in the sixth round. I think if I was on the clock here I might've selected another running back.

Selecting Freeman in the sixth is fine, but he has a tendency to be removed from games where the Broncos are losing for fellow rookie Phillip Lindsay. If that continues then a sixth-round cost on Freeman could prove to be expensive. If I was Pierre, selecting Lamar Miller from the Texans would have been a strong consideration for me. He might not have a huge amount of upside but has been heavily involved in the backfield in Houston.

Jason Katz - Pick 42: Damien Williams (RB, KC), Pick 55: Mark Ingram (RB, NO), Pick 66: Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)

Jason also went zero RB in the first two rounds, selecting Tyreek Hill, JuJu Smith-Schuster and quarterback Patrick Mahomes with his first three picks.

Selecting Damien Williams I think Jason is putting it out early that the current thought is that he will lead the backfield in Kansas City, if he does then he has just selected a fantastic fantasy asset. At this point, it's too early to tell, but I don't mind the pick given the current thought on the depth chart.

Ingram is in a contract year and started off being suspended. The value of the running back is likely to be highly contingent on where he ends up, but given his ability to catch passes, run the ball and effectiveness in the red-zone he is likely going to be a fantasy asset wherever he goes and matches well with Williams.

Sutton is a good flex option for the roster. He likely won't displace either of the wide receivers selected before him, but he has the talent to be fantasy relevant in an offense that should improve this season.

Matt Terelle - Pick 43: Tevin Coleman (RB, ATL), Pick 54: Chris Godwin (WR, TB), Pick 67: Rashaad Penny (RB, SEA)

Matt went for a balanced approach to the first three rounds, selecting DeAndre Hopkins, Dalvin Cook & Stefon Diggs.

Coleman is a good option for the RB2 spot on his team, while we aren't sure where he will end up this offseason, he has performed well in the NFL to date and will likely continue being a dual-threat running back wherever he ends up.

Godwin is an interesting selecting with the players at the position that were on the board, but given Hopkins and Diggs are already on the roster Matt can take a gamble on the Tampa offense maintaining the effectiveness that it has had in the season that just ended.

Penny is one pick I'm not absolutely sold on. The running back position in Seattle looks like it is Carson's to lose, and there were other handcuffs/ pass-catching running backs that were available such as Elijah McGuire, James White and Matt Breida who I think I would have preferred to Penny.

Ben Rolfe - Pick 44: Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE), Pick 53: Alshon Jeffery (WR, PHI), Pick 68: Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)

I like Ben's draft so far with Alvin Kamara and David Johnson paired with the elite tight end, Zach Ertz. It meant he was likely to need to have a few wide receiver selections in this early to mid rounds, and that's exactly what he did.

Landry is a PPR monster with the number of receptions that he gets, the Browns may go in a different direction on offense with a change at head coach- but there are certainly worse players that could have been selected.

Selecting Jeffrey is fine, but personally, I would have pivoted away from him I think having selected Ertz in the third round. Once Jeffrey was selected Ben is committing to the Eagles offense in a big way each week, but if he was looking for a big wide receiver for his WR2 position then Jeffrey is a good selection.

Robinson was one pick that I was hoping would fall one spot to me but alas that was not to be. Robinson as your third wide receiver is fantastic, he is the lead receiver in Chicago and now has the ability to develop a further rapport with quarterback Mitch Trubisky.

Rich King - Pick 45: Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR), Pick 52: Jordan Howard (RB, CHI), Pick 69: Lamar Miller (RB, HOU)

This is probably the easiest selection of picks to give analysis on, given that I made them! I selected Saquon Barkley, Keenan Allen and George Kittle with my first three picks.

Selecting Kupp in the fourth round was due to me wanting to pair an effective running back with Barkley and deciding that one of that group were likely to fall to me in the fifth, whereas Kupp wouldn't. Kupp is an effective slot receiver on a great offense and a red zone weapon. Interestingly this pick made the trio of wide receivers for the Rams all off the board before the end of the fourth round.

Howard was one of the running backs I thought would fall, and while he is limited in the passing game he is used by Chicago to kill the clock to keep their elite defense off the field where possible. I wanted a solid running back to pair with Barkley and think I managed it with his pick in combination with my next pick of Miller.

Miller I selected along similar lines to Howard. There weren't any wide receivers that I felt I really wanted to add to my roster just yet, and took the opportunity to select the Texans running back. Combined with Howard I've given myself a duo of backs I can rotate to give me solid RB2 production.

Dom Petrillo - Pick 46: Corey Davis (WR, TEN), Pick 51: Kenyan Drake (RB, MIA), Pick 70: Golden Tate (WR, PHI)

Dom previously selected running backs Christian McCaffrey and Phillip Lindsay along with wide receiver T.Y. Hilton in the first three rounds. Selecting a wide receiver in the fourth round was the logical choice- but I'm not sure on the pairing of Davis with Hilton, they are both downfield threats and so while they will have weeks where they single handily win you a week they equally have a chance of absolutely destroying your team if they struggle. I think at this point I would have felt more comfortable in selecting a player like Edelman who would provide you with consistent production each week.

Selecting Drake I like, as it will allow him an effective trio of running backs that he can rotate between to choose matchups, with all three of them being involved in the passing game they are unlikely to be taken out of the game if their team starts to lose, while being given a decent number of carries also.

Tate is a great pick in the sixth round, as I mentioned in the analysis of the Davis pick having a player with a constant level of production is going to be valuable to pair with the matchup dependent threats that he has at the position.

Kyle Richardson - Pick 47: Derrick Henry (RB, TEN), Pick 50: Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA), Pick 71: Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN)

Kyle had a balanced approach in the first three rounds, selecting Ezekiel Elliott, Mike Evans and Travis Kelce with his early picks.

Selecting Henry in the fourth round might have felt like a knee jerk reaction to his performances at the end of the season, but I think the Titans found that Henry is their most talented running back. I like pairing him with Elliott as an RB2.

Interestingly Lockett was selected ahead of fellow Seahawk Doug Baldwin, and that is something that we can expect to see in drafts for this season. Lockett seems to have developed great chemistry with quarterback Russell Wilson, and while there will likely be touchdown regression next season the increased targets should help offset that. Boyd had a breakout season and is a decent value here, even with other receiving options returning the offense should be more effective with a new coaching staff.

Justin Carter - Pick 48: Tarik Cohen (RB, CHI), Pick 49: Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL), Pick 72: Will Fuller (WR, HOU)

Justin started the draft with the selection of stud Todd Gurley before going for the receiving duo of Adam Thielen and A.J. Green.

In selecting the duo of Cohen and Freeman Justin has given himself two pass-catching running backs to rotate to fill his RB2 spot, and be a flex option each week. With his roster construction, I love this combination of picks as both are also used in early down work too.

Fuller missed the latter part of the season since then the Texans added Demaryius Thomas and Keke Coutee broke out. I don't think both of those affects effect Fuller and his ability on the field- they are different types of receivers. Thomas and Coutee are short to mid range route runners, and shouldn't effect Fuller streaking down the field. Fuller allows Justin the ability to have a bye week filler and flex option.

More Fantasy Football Analysis


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