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Frank's deep dive into starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, waiver wire adds for Week 12 of 2026. Are these unlikely aces potential league winners?
It's time for the 11th edition of our Unlikely Aces column for the 2026 MLB season. This is a column where we look at pitchers who are performing above expectations, hence the term "Unlikely Aces." The goal here is to dive into their profiles to see if what they're doing is legit.
This season, it's been tough for pitching, as there have been several injuries, most notably to Garrett Crochet and Cole Ragans, who have been out for a long time now. That's why it's even more important for Unlikely Aces, as they're able to keep your starting rotation afloat while you deal with injuries. The main question to consider here is, can they keep it up?
This week, we're taking a closer look at Tanner Bibee, Bryce Miller, and Bubba Chandler. Each of these pitchers has been rolling lately, so it's a good time to dive into what they're doing. As always, roster percentages referenced here are from Yahoo! leagues. In this column, I've chosen more highly rostered players, so the focus is not on whether to pick them up but on whether to buy into their recent performances.
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Tanner Bibee, SP, Cleveland Guardians
78% Rostered
Bibee was terrific in his first two seasons. In 2023, he put up a 2.98 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP with a 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in his rookie season. He followed that up with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with a 26.3% strikeout rate and a 6.2% walk rate in 173.2 innings in 2024. But last season was a down year, as Bibee registered a 4.24 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP with a 21.3% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate in 182.1 innings. However, it looks like Bibee is getting back on track now.
So far this season, the 27-year-old righty has a 3.96 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP with a 20.8% strikeout rate and a 7.6% walk rate. What you have to like is the improvement in stuff and location metrics. Bibee has a 105 Stuff+ and a 100 Location+, which are both career-highs. Yes, the strikeouts are still down compared to 2023-2024. Yes, his 4.21 SIERA is actually the worst of his career. Yes, he's giving up a career-worst 10.2% barrel rate. However, I'm intrigued by what I've seen from Bibee recently. The key here is to look at his recent sample rather than the entire season as a whole.
Bibee has gone at least six innings in six of his last seven outings, including two eight-inning outings against the Rangers and the Tigers. During this stretch, Bibee also has an eight-strikeout game and a nine-strikeout game. Since May 9th, Bibee has a 3.43 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP with a 20.6% strikeout rate and a 5.9% walk rate. But those numbers are inflated by one bad outing against the Nationals, when he allowed seven earned runs. The key here is the improved command, as prior to this stretch, Bibee had a 9.0% walk rate. This recent run makes me feel like Bibee is getting back into a rhythm.
Tanner Bibee puts on a masterful performance deep in the heart of Texas and the @CleGuardians knot up the series! pic.twitter.com/SFFXUDgMRx
— MLB (@MLB) June 7, 2026
If we look at Bibee's pitch mix, we see that he's bumped his cutter usage from 20.7% to 25.4%. While that pitch has been hit hard (.374 xwOBA), it's also induced a lot of whiffs (37.6% whiff rate). His changeup has also been effective in helping him rack up strikeouts, as highlighted by a 37.4% whiff rate. An interesting note: he's basically dropped the sweeper, reducing its usage from 16.0% to 2.0%. It seems that he hasn't gotten a feel for it yet, as its whiff rate has plummeted from 31.4% to 15.4%.
Verdict: Bibee isn't going to wow you with a high strikeout rate. He may have the occasional blowup start. But he's a dependable innings-eater to round out your rotation. When he's in a rhythm as he is right now, he's going to be quite valuable.
Bryce Miller, SP, Seattle Mariners
74% Rostered
Miller had a breakout season back in 2024, when he put up a 2.94 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP with a 24.3% strikeout rate and a 6.4% walk rate in 180.1 innings. But things fell apart last year, largely due to injury, where he registered a 5.68 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP with an 18.9% strikeout rate and an 8.7% walk rate in 90.1 innings. However, so far this season, Miller looks like he's taken his game to the next level, putting up a 1.54 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP with a 28.8% strikeout rate and a 4.0% walk rate in 35 innings. You have to love the 12.4% swinging-strike rate, which is a career-high.
When looking at Miller's pitch mix, there's no shortage of intrigue. His four-seamer velocity has increased from 94.8 MPH to 96.6 MPH. That's why it's gone from a .357 wOBA to a .246 wOBA. On top of that, Miller has really gotten a great feel for his splitter. This pitch has gone from a .300 wOBA and a 28.3% whiff rate to a .142 wOBA and a 29.7% whiff rate. We're also seeing Miller throw his slider more, bumping up its usage from 7.7% to 15.0%. This is another pitch that has performed well: .285 wOBA and 32.6% whiff rate.
We should also mention how Miller has two weapons against righties. The sweeper (50.0% whiff rate) and cutter (41.2% whiff rate) are thrown almost exclusively to right-handers, giving him another two pitches to help rack up strikeouts. We've also seen Miller trim his sinker usage from 16.5% to 3.0%. Fewer sinkers means fewer groundballs and more strikeouts. As you can see here, there's a lot to like in Miller's profile.
The problem is that the Mariners have an embarrassment of riches in their starting rotation. They're going with a six-man rotation, where one of the pitchers will piggyback the other, essentially acting as a long reliever in one start. That has a negative impact on their fantasy value, but it's clear that Miller is a different pitcher this season.
NEWS on the Mariners’ rotation…
They’re going to a rotating piggyback, per Justin Hollander.
Essentially, each of their six starters will appear in the front end or back end of said piggyback from now through the All-Star break.
More to come.
— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) June 16, 2026
Verdict: While volume will be an issue given the way the Mariners are deploying their deep set of starters, Miller seems to be taking the leap this season.
Bubba Chandler, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
62% Rostered
Chandler has been touted as an elite pitching prospect, but the results haven't been there so far this season. The 23-year-old righty is putting up a 4.76 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP with a 22.6% strikeout rate and a 13.6% walk rate in 68 innings. The biggest issue has been command as you can see, but the Location+ (103) metric is higher than you'd think with such a hefty walk rate. That makes me optimistic that with a couple of tweaks, Chandler can show improved command. The stuff is already there (105 Stuff+), so if that happens, he can start to show significant improvements.
We've already started to see some encouraging signs, as Chandler has held opponents to two earned runs in each of his last two outings, where he's gone 5.1 and 5.2 innings. The Pirates have used an opener to help Chandler out, which is smart as they try to rebuild his confidence.
Looking at Chandler's pitch mix, we see that he's introduced a sweeper, which he throws 8.2% of the time. This is a pitch that has induced a .188 wOBA and a 31.7% whiff rate. Perhaps as Chandler continues to get a better feel for the pitch, he'll start throwing it a bit more, which can help him rack up more strikeouts.
Starters with the most 100+ mph pitches this season.
1. Jacob Misiorowski 233
Rest of Top-10: 179
2. Chase Dollander 42*
3. Bubba Chandler 41
4. Cam Schlittler 22
5. Shohei Ohtani 19
6. Chase Burns 17
7. Walbert Urena 16
8. Eury Pérez 15
9. José Soriano 5
10. Dylan Cease 2 pic.twitter.com/U5NrKOJyDs— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) May 14, 2026
Verdict: Chandler is a volatile young starter, but there's certainly some upside here. If one of your league mates dropped him, I'd give him a look. There's a chance that he can take off in the second half.
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