Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


ADP Surprises - Early Mock Results

The NFL Draft is in the books and OTAs have taken place, which means that it is time for the start of the fantasy football season! If you want to win your league this season, then stay tuned for a great schedule of articles being released and follow along with the mock drafts taking place.

This article is about exactly that - the results of a mock draft that the Rotoballer writers completed. If you didn't follow it on Twitter then you can see the full draft board here. For ease the league settings were:
0.5 PPR, 1 QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1 (W/R), 1 (W/T)

In this space, we'll look at some of the most surprising results and how this might give insight into early ADP surprises for redraft leagues.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!


RotoBaller Expert Mock Results


Reaches Against Expectations

Reaches are the most subjective of selections, especially at this point of the offseason where little is known about the effectiveness of players in their particular systems. However, a rough indication can be taken from the players that were available at the point of selecting them.


Damien Williams (RB, KC)

This selection will be a reach until it's clear that Williams will be the starting running back for the Chiefs. Williams was effective as the teams starting running back towards the end of the season after Kareem Hunt was no longer in the picture. However, there were established starting running backs like Leonard Fournette and Devonta Freeman. While both players have injury concerns this season, if they are fit their role in their respective offenses is established.

I would select the starting Kansas City Chiefs running back at the end of the second, as the position has long had fantasy relevance under coach Andy Reid- but I'm not yet convinced that the starter is Williams.


Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)

Full disclosure- this was one of my picks, and after I made the pick I regretted it. Since then, I haven't changed my mind. Scott Engel wrote an article on Mayfield where he highlighted the pick that I made (if you haven't read that I recommend you do, you can find that here)

Mayfield is talented, but drafting him in the sixth round as the fourth quarterback off the board I think wasn't a good selection. Mayfield has a range of weapons on offense, especially with the addition of wide receiver Odell Beckham. However, I don't think that he will be a huge difference maker enough to be considered in the sixth, especially as the fourth quarterback off the board. I could have selected another running back or wide receiver, and got a quarterback two or three rounds later.

To highlight that, a realistic comparison is I could have selected Allen Robinson at wide receiver, Hunter Henry at tight end (who I did select and still like in that position) and selected Caron Wentz in the ninth round. The gap between Robinson and Davis is far more significant that the gap between Mayfield and Wentz.


Ronald Jones II (RB, TB)

This is very similar to the pick of Williams, this will be a reach until it isn't. Jones has been impressive as both a runner and receiver during OTAs, but there is uncertainty in the backfield.

Jones was selected in the eighth round, around low-end starting running backs and valuable handcuffs. Under new head coach Bruce Arians, Jones could figure to get the same usage as David Johnson did in his breakout year as a pass-catching running back if he is truly ready to make an impact. (Note: I'm not saying that Jones is as talented as Johnson). If Peyton Barber is more involved and keeps the backfield a timeshare, then Jones will be a reach this season.


Values Against Expectations

Values are easier to determine than reaches, as they are often players who have more consistent production, with possible but limited upside on a season.


Curtis Samuel (WR, CAR)

Curtis Samuel was drafted three years ago but lost his rookie season due to injury. The Panthers have a number of targets available, and some of that is going to funnel to Samuel. Samuel is currently the third receiver on the roster (behind Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore), but Samuel is likely more able to score touchdowns than Moore. At the end of the season, it's not totally out of line to expect that Moore and Samuel finish with similar stat lines, with Samuel being available several rounds later at a great value.


Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)

Dak Prescott was selected in our mock draft in the 14th round, as the 17th quarterback off the board- fantastic value for an efficient quarterback on an effective offense.

Amari Cooper was an impact player last season as the team's primary receiver once he was traded last season and should be more effective now he has been able to establish himself in the offense. The biggest impact for Prescott in the passing game is the increased involvement and opportunity afforded to Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is one of the most talented offensive players in the league and the Cowboys started using him in the passing, exceeding 20% of the team's targets for the first time in his career. Prescott can deliver QB1 value at a QB2 price, which is a trend that could hold up throughout draft season.


Robby Anderson (WR, NYJ)

Anderson was selected in the seventh round in our mock, who could prove to be a great option in the mid rounds of drafts this season. Sam Darnold seemed to develop chemistry with Anderson towards the end of the season, shown by Anderson's performance in Weeks 14 to 16, averaging seven receptions for 104 yards and a touchdown.

Coming into Darnold's second year there is no reason why that should drastically change, even with the addition of running back Le'Veon Bell. While the two are likely going to be the target leaders for the team, the type of targets they will be competing for are markedly different. Anderson has been used primarily as a downfield option, with an average depth of target of just over 15 yards in the three seasons he has been in the league. So there is space for the two of them to co-exist on the team.



At this point of the season, there are many questions that need to be answered for the outlook of a player's season and things are constantly changing with injuries and preseason performances. Some of those are being answered now after the draft, but there are still plenty of value shifts sure to occur. As always, keep up with the latest news and analysis at RotoBaller to get the best advantage in your upcoming drafts.

More Recent Articles


Updated Week 7 PPR Rankings (Top 300)

Welcome to Week 7 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 7 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: Josh Gordon has officially been ruled out for Week 7. Todd Gurley was not on the final injury report and is expected to play. David Johnson (ankle)... Read More

Wide Receiver Matchups To Target in Week 7

In Week 6, Julio Jones didn't score, but he came through with a decent fantasy day, going over 100-yards receiving. Brandin Cooks brutal Week 6 showing was a little bit of a surprise given his 2018 track record against the 49ers, but the Rams offensive line was overwhelmed which led to a rough day for... Read More

Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 7

Welcome to our Week 7 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More

Week 7 Start/Sit: Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis

Even if this doesn’t turn out to be great MNF game, at least it's a divisional game with some importance. This is what Jets fans need to tell themselves heading into their second Monday Night Football game of the season. With the New England Patriots coming to town off their annual semi-bye in which they... Read More

The King's Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 7

Welcome to Week 7, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football season. These player selections are based off my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More

Fantasy Football Rookies to Watch - Darius Slayton, Jakobi Meyers, Josh Oliver

Week 7 is here RotoBallers, which means we're smack dab in the middle of the regular fantasy season! In case you are new to this column, each week we'll highlight a few first-year players who are worth keeping your eye on. Not all of the players listed below are must-starts, but all of them are... Read More

Fleaflicker's Most Added and Dropped: Week 7

Every year and in every sport, a few teams march effortlessly towards the ultimate prize as if it's been preordained. When seemingly invincible teams like these are beaten, it's not always by the quality of their opponent but instead by their own psychological mindset. They look past a lesser opponent and fall victim to the... Read More

Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 7 Josh Gordon has officially been ruled out for Week 7. Todd Gurley was not on the final injury... Read More

Week 7 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More

Pass Rush vs QB Matchups to Watch - Week 7

It's Week 7 and the injuries just keep piling up. Heading into this week, six different teams will be starting quarterbacks that were not their opening-day starters, and that doesn't take into account teams like the Indianapolis Colts or Kansas City Chiefs, who just lost quarterback Patrick Mahomes (knee) for at least three weeks. To... Read More

Offensive Line Rankings Analysis: Week 7

In Week 6, we once again saw some great football, starting with the New England Patriots continuing their undefeated start to the season and ending with one of the most controversial games of the week as the Green Bay Packers overcame the Detroit Lions. The London games continued with Jameis Winston struggling once again, this... Read More

Is Stefon Diggs Really Back?

Weeks 1-5: 4.6 targets, 3.2 receptions, 50.6 yards per game, one touchdown. Week 6: 11 targets, eight receptions, 167 yards, three touchdowns. All of these numbers show a marked improvement on the season averages of Stefon Diggs in Minnesota. But, do they tell the whole story? Do they really signify that Diggs should be considered... Read More

Inside the Tent - Week 7 NFL Injury Insight

At RotoBaller, we can't stress enough the importance of keeping up with injuries and playing your best lineup week after week. Players are going to get injured, that's an unavoidable fact. What's avoidable though is making the wrong roster decisions based on the injuries surrounding your fantasy squad. If you want to dominate your leagues... Read More

Week 7 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Below are RotoBaller's Week 7 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 7 of the NFL and fantasy football season. In case you missed it, this is our seventh year now writing this weekly column. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver... Read More

Week 7 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that bye weeks are in full swing; streaming becomes a more viable and almost necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions throughout the season could easily be the difference in winning a championship. Each week, I... Read More