ADP Surprises - Early Mock Results

June 10, 2019

Rotoballer's staff completed an expert fantasy football mock draft and, as with any draft, there were some surprises. Richard King looks at some of the reaches and values according to ADP in order to identify risers and fallers for the 2019 season.

The NFL Draft is in the books and OTAs have taken place, which means that it is time for the start of the fantasy football season! If you want to win your league this season, then stay tuned for a great schedule of articles being released and follow along with the mock drafts taking place.

This article is about exactly that - the results of a mock draft that the Rotoballer writers completed. If you didn't follow it on Twitter then you can see the full draft board here. For ease the league settings were:
0.5 PPR, 1 QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1 (W/R), 1 (W/T)

In this space, we'll look at some of the most surprising results and how this might give insight into early ADP surprises for redraft leagues.

RotoBaller Expert Mock Results

Reaches Against Expectations

Reaches are the most subjective of selections, especially at this point of the offseason where little is known about the effectiveness of players in their particular systems. However, a rough indication can be taken from the players that were available at the point of selecting them.

Damien Williams (RB, KC)

This selection will be a reach until it's clear that Williams will be the starting running back for the Chiefs. Williams was effective as the teams starting running back towards the end of the season after Kareem Hunt was no longer in the picture. However, there were established starting running backs like Leonard Fournette and Devonta Freeman. While both players have injury concerns this season, if they are fit their role in their respective offenses is established.

I would select the starting Kansas City Chiefs running back at the end of the second, as the position has long had fantasy relevance under coach Andy Reid- but I'm not yet convinced that the starter is Williams.

Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)

Full disclosure- this was one of my picks, and after I made the pick I regretted it. Since then, I haven't changed my mind. Scott Engel wrote an article on Mayfield where he highlighted the pick that I made (if you haven't read that I recommend you do, you can find that here)

Mayfield is talented, but drafting him in the sixth round as the fourth quarterback off the board I think wasn't a good selection. Mayfield has a range of weapons on offense, especially with the addition of wide receiver Odell Beckham. However, I don't think that he will be a huge difference maker enough to be considered in the sixth, especially as the fourth quarterback off the board. I could have selected another running back or wide receiver, and got a quarterback two or three rounds later.

To highlight that, a realistic comparison is I could have selected Allen Robinson at wide receiver, Hunter Henry at tight end (who I did select and still like in that position) and selected Caron Wentz in the ninth round. The gap between Robinson and Davis is far more significant that the gap between Mayfield and Wentz.

Ronald Jones II (RB, TB)

This is very similar to the pick of Williams, this will be a reach until it isn't. Jones has been impressive as both a runner and receiver during OTAs, but there is uncertainty in the backfield.

Jones was selected in the eighth round, around low-end starting running backs and valuable handcuffs. Under new head coach Bruce Arians, Jones could figure to get the same usage as David Johnson did in his breakout year as a pass-catching running back if he is truly ready to make an impact. (Note: I'm not saying that Jones is as talented as Johnson). If Peyton Barber is more involved and keeps the backfield a timeshare, then Jones will be a reach this season.

Values Against Expectations

Values are easier to determine than reaches, as they are often players who have more consistent production, with possible but limited upside on a season.

Curtis Samuel (WR, CAR)

Curtis Samuel was drafted three years ago but lost his rookie season due to injury. The Panthers have a number of targets available, and some of that is going to funnel to Samuel. Samuel is currently the third receiver on the roster (behind Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore), but Samuel is likely more able to score touchdowns than Moore. At the end of the season, it's not totally out of line to expect that Moore and Samuel finish with similar stat lines, with Samuel being available several rounds later at a great value.

Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)

Dak Prescott was selected in our mock draft in the 14th round, as the 17th quarterback off the board- fantastic value for an efficient quarterback on an effective offense.

Amari Cooper was an impact player last season as the team's primary receiver once he was traded last season and should be more effective now he has been able to establish himself in the offense. The biggest impact for Prescott in the passing game is the increased involvement and opportunity afforded to Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is one of the most talented offensive players in the league and the Cowboys started using him in the passing, exceeding 20% of the team's targets for the first time in his career. Prescott can deliver QB1 value at a QB2 price, which is a trend that could hold up throughout draft season.

Robby Anderson (WR, NYJ)

Anderson was selected in the seventh round in our mock, who could prove to be a great option in the mid rounds of drafts this season. Sam Darnold seemed to develop chemistry with Anderson towards the end of the season, shown by Anderson's performance in Weeks 14 to 16, averaging seven receptions for 104 yards and a touchdown.

Coming into Darnold's second year there is no reason why that should drastically change, even with the addition of running back Le'Veon Bell. While the two are likely going to be the target leaders for the team, the type of targets they will be competing for are markedly different. Anderson has been used primarily as a downfield option, with an average depth of target of just over 15 yards in the three seasons he has been in the league. So there is space for the two of them to co-exist on the team.

Conclusion

At this point of the season, there are many questions that need to be answered for the outlook of a player's season and things are constantly changing with injuries and preseason performances. Some of those are being answered now after the draft, but there are still plenty of value shifts sure to occur. As always, keep up with the latest news and analysis at RotoBaller to get the best advantage in your upcoming drafts.

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