X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

ADP Surprises - Early Mock Results

Rotoballer's staff completed an expert fantasy football mock draft and, as with any draft, there were some surprises. Richard King looks at some of the reaches and values according to ADP in order to identify risers and fallers for the 2019 season.

The NFL Draft is in the books and OTAs have taken place, which means that it is time for the start of the fantasy football season! If you want to win your league this season, then stay tuned for a great schedule of articles being released and follow along with the mock drafts taking place.

This article is about exactly that - the results of a mock draft that the Rotoballer writers completed. If you didn't follow it on Twitter then you can see the full draft board here. For ease the league settings were:
0.5 PPR, 1 QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1 (W/R), 1 (W/T)

In this space, we'll look at some of the most surprising results and how this might give insight into early ADP surprises for redraft leagues.

Editor's Note: Prepare for draft day with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Mock Drafts and strategy tips. Use our free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Tool and Draft Assistant to explore player trends, ADP insights, and winning roster builds for every league format.

 

RotoBaller Expert Mock Results

 

Reaches Against Expectations

Reaches are the most subjective of selections, especially at this point of the offseason where little is known about the effectiveness of players in their particular systems. However, a rough indication can be taken from the players that were available at the point of selecting them.

 

Damien Williams (RB, KC)

This selection will be a reach until it's clear that Williams will be the starting running back for the Chiefs. Williams was effective as the teams starting running back towards the end of the season after Kareem Hunt was no longer in the picture. However, there were established starting running backs like Leonard Fournette and Devonta Freeman. While both players have injury concerns this season, if they are fit their role in their respective offenses is established.

I would select the starting Kansas City Chiefs running back at the end of the second, as the position has long had fantasy relevance under coach Andy Reid- but I'm not yet convinced that the starter is Williams.

 

Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)

Full disclosure- this was one of my picks, and after I made the pick I regretted it. Since then, I haven't changed my mind. Scott Engel wrote an article on Mayfield where he highlighted the pick that I made (if you haven't read that I recommend you do, you can find that here)

Mayfield is talented, but drafting him in the sixth round as the fourth quarterback off the board I think wasn't a good selection. Mayfield has a range of weapons on offense, especially with the addition of wide receiver Odell Beckham. However, I don't think that he will be a huge difference maker enough to be considered in the sixth, especially as the fourth quarterback off the board. I could have selected another running back or wide receiver, and got a quarterback two or three rounds later.

To highlight that, a realistic comparison is I could have selected Allen Robinson at wide receiver, Hunter Henry at tight end (who I did select and still like in that position) and selected Caron Wentz in the ninth round. The gap between Robinson and Davis is far more significant that the gap between Mayfield and Wentz.

 

Ronald Jones II (RB, TB)

This is very similar to the pick of Williams, this will be a reach until it isn't. Jones has been impressive as both a runner and receiver during OTAs, but there is uncertainty in the backfield.

Jones was selected in the eighth round, around low-end starting running backs and valuable handcuffs. Under new head coach Bruce Arians, Jones could figure to get the same usage as David Johnson did in his breakout year as a pass-catching running back if he is truly ready to make an impact. (Note: I'm not saying that Jones is as talented as Johnson). If Peyton Barber is more involved and keeps the backfield a timeshare, then Jones will be a reach this season.

 

Values Against Expectations

Values are easier to determine than reaches, as they are often players who have more consistent production, with possible but limited upside on a season.

 

Curtis Samuel (WR, CAR)

Curtis Samuel was drafted three years ago but lost his rookie season due to injury. The Panthers have a number of targets available, and some of that is going to funnel to Samuel. Samuel is currently the third receiver on the roster (behind Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore), but Samuel is likely more able to score touchdowns than Moore. At the end of the season, it's not totally out of line to expect that Moore and Samuel finish with similar stat lines, with Samuel being available several rounds later at a great value.

 

Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)

Dak Prescott was selected in our mock draft in the 14th round, as the 17th quarterback off the board- fantastic value for an efficient quarterback on an effective offense.

Amari Cooper was an impact player last season as the team's primary receiver once he was traded last season and should be more effective now he has been able to establish himself in the offense. The biggest impact for Prescott in the passing game is the increased involvement and opportunity afforded to Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is one of the most talented offensive players in the league and the Cowboys started using him in the passing, exceeding 20% of the team's targets for the first time in his career. Prescott can deliver QB1 value at a QB2 price, which is a trend that could hold up throughout draft season.

 

Robby Anderson (WR, NYJ)

Anderson was selected in the seventh round in our mock, who could prove to be a great option in the mid rounds of drafts this season. Sam Darnold seemed to develop chemistry with Anderson towards the end of the season, shown by Anderson's performance in Weeks 14 to 16, averaging seven receptions for 104 yards and a touchdown.

Coming into Darnold's second year there is no reason why that should drastically change, even with the addition of running back Le'Veon Bell. While the two are likely going to be the target leaders for the team, the type of targets they will be competing for are markedly different. Anderson has been used primarily as a downfield option, with an average depth of target of just over 15 yards in the three seasons he has been in the league. So there is space for the two of them to co-exist on the team.

 

Conclusion

At this point of the season, there are many questions that need to be answered for the outlook of a player's season and things are constantly changing with injuries and preseason performances. Some of those are being answered now after the draft, but there are still plenty of value shifts sure to occur. As always, keep up with the latest news and analysis at RotoBaller to get the best advantage in your upcoming drafts.

More ADP Values and Sleepers




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy With Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
ANA

Mikael Granlund Moves to Anaheim on Three-Year Deal
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
NJ

Jake Allen Signs Five-Year Extension With Devils
VAN

Brock Boeser Remains in Vancouver on Seven-Year Deal
Conor Garland

Signs New Six-Year Deal with Canucks
Thatcher Demko

Signs Three-Year Extension with Canucks
Brandon Woodruff

Ready for Season Debut
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary Agrees to Seven-Year Extension with Capitals
Garrett Mitchell

Out for the Rest of the Season
MLB

Brewers-Mets Postponed on Tuesday
MLB

Tigers-Nationals Postponed on Tuesday
Zach Neto

Returns to Tuesday's Lineup
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
MLB

Padres-Phillies Postponed on Tuesday
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Hunter Goodman

Back Behind the Dish on Tuesday
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Jason Day

is a Fine Play With Limited Upside at John Deere Classic
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Luke Clanton

Looks to Have Another Strong Week at TPC Deere Run
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Sacramento Kings

Dennis Schroder Set to Join Sacramento
Bo Bichette

Out Again on Tuesday
Trent Grisham

Likely Heading to Injured List
Boston Celtics

Luke Kornet Agrees to Contract With San Antonio
Jonas Valančiūnas

Nuggets Trade for Center Jonas Valanciunas
Royce Lewis

Twins Activate Royce Lewis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Signs Massive Extension With Oklahoma City
Corbin Carroll

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
New York Knicks

Knicks Pick Up Guerschon Yabusele
Yordan Alvarez

Could Return Early Next Week
NFL

Negotiations on 18-Game Season Not Expected Until Next Year
Indiana Pacers

Myles Turner Leaves Indiana, Signs With Milwaukee
Kerry Carpenter

Shelved with Hamstring Issue
Tyler Boyd

Steelers Have Talked With Tyler Boyd
Milwaukee Bucks

Damian Lillard Waived By Milwaukee
Darren Waller

Coming Out of Retirement to Play for Dolphins
Alexander Romanov

Islanders Retain Alexander Romanov on $50 Million Contract
Andrei Kuzmenko

Signs Up for One More Year with Kings
Morgan Geekie

Signs Long-Term Extension with Bruins
Ivan Provorov

Stays in Columbus on Seven-Year Deal
Alex Pietrangelo

Stepping Away From Golden Knights for Health Reasons
Matias Maccelli

Maple Leafs Bring in Matias Maccelli
Evan Bouchard

Inks $42 Million Contract with Oilers
Vladimir Tarasenko

Wild Acquire Vladimir Tarasenko From Detroit
Patrick Kane

Signs New One-Year Deal with Red Wings
Brad Marchand

Lands Six-Year Extension
Aaron Ekblad

Remains a Panther on Eight-Year Deal
Mitchell Marner

Heads to Vegas
Randy Arozarena

Homers Twice, Plates Four Monday
Shea Langeliers

Hits Three-Run Homer In Return From Injured List Monday
Wilyer Abreu

Belts Grand Slam and Hits Inside-the-Park Home Run
Philadelphia 76ers

Trendon Watford Lands in Philadelphia
New York Knicks

Jordan Clarkson Expected to Sign With Knicks
Zack Wheeler

Tosses Eight Shutout Innings, Punches Out 10
Santi Aldama

Remains with Grizzlies
Atlanta Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Lands in Atlanta
George Springer

Exits Early Monday With Neck Injury
Jalen Ramsey

Could Move Around in Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Clippers

Brook Lopez Strikes Deal With Clippers
Jonnu Smith

to be Used in Hybrid Role
Terry McLaurin

Commanders, Terry McLaurin Not Close on Contract Extension
Hunter Goodman

Likely Headed to Injured List
Chicago Bulls

Tre Jones Remaining in Chicago
Michael Mayer

Raiders Not Interested in Trading Michael Mayer
Houston Rockets

Dorian Finney-Smith Signing With Rockets
Atlanta Hawks

Caris LeVert Joining Pistons
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF