Early 2024 Best Ball Rankings Analysis - QB

May 2, 2024

Alex Ciulla takes a look at early Best Ball quarterback rankings and stacks them up against ADP.

Over the last few years, Best Ball formats have become increasingly popular among fantasy gamers. Admittedly, I have fallen victim to this trend as I prefer this format over others now. If you're unfamiliar with Best Ball, it takes the headache out of setting a weekly lineup. Instead of individually starting and sitting your wide receiver, running back, etc., the app's algorithm fills out your lineup with the highest-scoring player at each position each week.

Due to this wrinkle, several players get a nice bump up in Best Ball average draft position. Because we don't have to worry much about when to start them, boom-bust potential selections carry marginally less risk and have a better shot at helping you win a week. Typically, when drafting, we look for upside. In Best Ball, that notion gets magnified. If you consider yourself a savvy fantasy football GM, early Best Ball drafts can be a lucrative exercise for you. At this point in the offseason, the official ADP hasn't exactly caught up with itself. This presents an opportunity to exploit pockets and players of fantasy drafts that will far out-play their current ADP.

In 2024 drafts, the quarterback position will again be one looked at with much scrutiny. While 2023 fantasy drafts saw the community more likely to take QBs earlier than in previous years, the fact that offense and scoring were down league-wide last season may sway some drafters from taking that leap again. We might get some sweet values in drafts because of this. Even if we don't, hitting on a late-round quarterback will prove monumental for your Best Ball squad and allow you to stockpile studs at other positions, strengthening your team and accumulating more depth.

Tier 1

Josh Allen, BUF / Jalen Hurts, PHI / Patrick Mahomes, KC / Lamar Jackson, BAL

The first four players in the ranking make up four of the first five quarterbacks taken in Underdog Best Ball ADP. Josh Allen is the first quarterback off the board of this group, for good reason, and he's getting drafted in the middle of the third round (3.7). Nearly two rounds later, Patrick Mahomes goes early in the fifth. This group is one I am always targeting in Best Ball drafts, specifically the quarterbacks with rushing upside.

Lamar Jackson is the only QB from Tier 1 whose team didn't make drastic changes to the offense aside from the addition of Derrick Henry. I don't expect this to affect his final season line too much, as Henry should open up the defense a bit more for the Ravens offensive unit as a whole. On the other hand, the Chiefs have equipped Mahomes with a few extra speedy WRs, and a bounceback after a down year (by his standards) is expected. Josh Allen and the Bills have lost the most on this list -- Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs -- but I'm still good with Allen as the first QB off the board. He's been a top-two fantasy-scoring QB since 2020 and was essentially without Diggs for the second half of last year anyway.

Crazy pass from Josh Allen

📺: #BUFvsKC on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pWMED8SAQa pic.twitter.com/LRibQhIvDu

— NFL (@NFL) December 11, 2023

Tier 2

Anthony Richardson, IND / C.J. Stroud, HOU / Joe Burrow, CIN / Dak Prescott, DAL / Brock Purdy, SF / Kyler Murray, ARI

Tier 2 is slightly less interesting than the first, but some game-breaking fantasy scorers are still available here. I mentioned before that the first four QBs in our rankings nearly make up the first four in ADP -- the missing QB is C.J. Stroud. He's currently being taken two spots before Mahomes as the No. 4 QB (5.2), and feels a little high to me at this price. Sure, Stroud was electric last year, and we'll enjoy watching him play for the next decade-plus, but you can't convince me to take him over Mahomes, Anthony Richardson, or Joe Burrow just yet.

The other QBs in Tier 2 can be found from picks 6.1 to 9.1 in ADP, beginning with A-Rich and ending with Brock Purdy. As we pass Dak Prescott (pick 7.9), the skill position players start to get undesirable. Depending on your particular team build at the time, you could feasibly select two players from this tier. Richardson and Purdy would pair nicely, as Richardson presents a massive upside, and Purdy is a steady floor play. Personally, if I did not grab a QB from the first tier, I'm snagging one of these guys. I'll settle for Purdy, but give me Kyler Murray a round earlier (8.1) 90% of the time with his rushing upside and new alpha WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Kyler Murray just went video game mode. This is crazy. pic.twitter.com/ztOoDLWmAf

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 18, 2022

Tier 3

Jordan Love, GB / Justin Herbert, LAC / Tua Tagovailoa, MIA / Kirk Cousins, ATL / Caleb Williams, CHI / Jayden Daniels, WAS / Trevor Lawrence, JAX

This is where it starts to get interesting. If for whatever reason I did not grab a QB from the first two tiers, it's the first thing I'm doing when I get to Tier 3. Despite Jordan Love headlining this group, his ADP actually sits in the middle of Tier 2 (pick 7.12). Love presents a bit of risk there as he is mostly just a pocket passer, but his underlying metrics look really good -- I might be too low on him. It feels strange to have Justin Herbert here, but he does not currently present the upside he has in the past few seasons. It's widely accepted that Jim Harbaugh will want to run the crap out of the ball, and Herbert is missing his top offensive weapons in Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler.

If Kirk Cousins is fully healthy, he could easily lead this group in points at the season's end. Tua Tagovailoa is also an intriguing name from this tier, but unless he takes another step forward, this is likely around where he'll finish. Tua had some wild stat lines last season, but most of his good performances came against bottom-half defenses. If you're inclined to take one of the rookies as your QB1 (Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels), be prepared to quickly draft a second one. The hype is high around Williams, and the team situation is the best we've seen for the 1.01 in the NFL Draft -- temper your expectations.

Jordan Love (2) to Luke Musgrave (1)*
Green Bay Packers
39 yards
pic.twitter.com/gezxXMhHE9

— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDsVideos) January 15, 2024

Tier 4

Jared Goff, DET / Matthew Stafford, LAR / Deshaun Watson, CLE / Aaron Rodgers, NYJ / Baker Mayfield, TB

The fourth tier has some viable QB2s, but we're really just looking for depth and upside this late in our drafts. Deshaun Watson was at least solid last year before injuries derailed his season. In the five games he played most of the snaps, Watson had three finishes as a Top-10 QB (QB 5, 10, and 8). He ran the ball a decent amount too, with four or more rushing attempts in all but one contest. Matthew Stafford also presents another solid option in the late rounds with an ADP of 12.3. Stafford looked better as the year went on, as he threw 15 of his 24 TDs from Weeks 12-17.

I expect Aaron Rodgers will be healthy, and the Jets should be good in 2024, but Rodgers wasn't exactly his All-Star self the last time we saw him for a full season of play in Green Bay (2021). His touchdown totals have fluctuated throughout his career, but at age 40, how many Top-12 seasons does he have left in the tank? Baker Mayfield had a resurgent 2023 under Dave Canales in Tampa Bay, but with Canales gone, can we still trust him? Geno Smith had a stellar -- resurgent -- 2022 and turned into a pumpkin last season. Their link? Canales left Geno after one season, too.

Personally, my favorite target on this list is Jared Goff. We're disrespecting Goff a bit here, as he has finished as a Top-10 QB each of the past two seasons with nearly identical stat lines. He's been a more than serviceable starter for the NFL and our fantasy squads. I'd be elated to grab Goff as my second QB, and he is the absolute last name I'd be comfortable with as my QB1.

"JARED GOFF, JARED GOFF!" The D shows love to its QB1 👏

📺: #NFLDraft on NFLN/ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/rC6YEVyYAx

— NFL (@NFL) April 26, 2024

Tier 5

Drake Maye, NE / Russell Wilson, PIT / Geno Smith, SEA / Bryce Young, CAR / Will Levis, TEN

We have officially entered QB3/bench option territory. None of these guys should be the starting QB for your squad unless you got auto-picked for 10 rounds and somehow didn't get another quarterback. With that said, there is still a good chance that a few of these guys end up as fine contributors in 2024. In 2023, 66 (!) individual quarterbacks made a start due to injuries and poor play, so it is almost a lock that one of these guys cracks your lineup at some point.

I like Russell Wilson in this group, and he's not going until the last round in Underdog drafts (18.2). It's safe to say that Russ doesn't garner the same ceiling he did in Seattle, but he's been QB No. 16 or better regarding scoring since 2021. If you're grabbing Wilson, it might be a good idea to grab Justin Fields, too. If you're adverse to the Pittsburgh QB duo, Geno Smith is an option for your third QB, and I'm also suggesting Bryce Young here. As I mentioned earlier, the arrival of Dave Canales in Carolina projects a boost for Bryce Young, evidenced by what he has done for Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith over the past few seasons. Will Levis' arm talent keeps him in the conversation as someone with upside if he can take another step. However, he was woeful when pressured last season.

A look at how long a QB extends the play after pressure arrives and how often he takes a sack on those plays pic.twitter.com/LFFtVf4aR9

— Jrfortgang (@throwthedamball) November 15, 2023

Tier 6

Daniel Jones, NYG / Bo Nix, DEN / J.J. McCarthy, MIN / Derek Carr, NO

Ah, the best of the rest -- or worst, depending on how you look at it. I left Justin Fields off this list. Although I mentioned him earlier, this is largely because he is not currently the starter. The Pittsburgh Steelers QB room will be something to monitor all season, as I expect that if Russell Wilson has a few rough games, the fans could start chanting for Fields.

Derek Carr presents as the most intriguing name in Tier 6. Carr finished as the QB16 in 2023 and looked better in the back half of the season. That was against a few bottom-half defenses, but this is Tier 6, and Carr hasn't finished below QB20 since 2018. Daniel Jones and Bo Nix scare me the most on this list, so I'm more inclined to take J.J. McCarthy over them if Carr is gone when it is my turn to select. McCarthy is an unknown, but aside from Caleb Williams, it's hard to argue that another rookie QB landed on a better offense.

Happy Birthday @derekcarrqb! Need a million of these next year! pic.twitter.com/1x4TA3SPbH

— Barstool NOLA (@BarstoolNOLA) March 28, 2024

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