Nick Mariano's Early 2021 Fantasy Baseball Relief Pitcher Rankings

December 6, 2020

RotoBaller's early 2021 fantasy baseball relief pitcher rankings and analysis for 5x5 roto mixed leagues, featuring top 75 RP ranks from #1 accuracy expert Nick Mariano.

The 2021 MLB season isn't guaranteed to be normal but I have hope that next spring will be much healthier. As such, I will approach ranks as if a traditional 162-game season is coming. Join me for my position-by-position ranking series for the 2021 fantasy baseball season.

How much weight do we give 2020? How well can you erase notions such as the East, Central, and West divisions only playing each other? How about the DH in the National League. For now, I'm operating under the assumption of no NL DH moving forward. And it's clear that many familiar names may be frozen out of fair contracts as owners cry about lost revenue from the limited 2020 season.

We've covered everyone else by now: catchers, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, outfield, and starting pitchers so far, so now we're calling in the bullpen with relief pitchers. It's early so I'll try to tread lightly and value known roles. Let's comb through my top-75 as we prepare for what we hope will be a refreshing 2021 season.

Early 2021 Relief Pitcher Rankings - 5x5 Mixed Leagues

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. Be sure to follow his updated rankings all season long!

Tier One

Josh Hader wasn’t his elite self in 2020, but it’ll take more than 19 frames that are only very good to displace his incredible career thus far. The southpaw’s 26.9% K-BB rate fell from 40.8% in ‘19, with a career-low 16.1% swinging-strike rate and 12.8% walk rate making business difficult. He was still a fly-ball pitcher with a 15% HR/FB rate, hence the 3.79 ERA, but converted 13 saves and remains a trustworthy source of big K’s and ninth-inning opportunities.

Some might skip over him and leap at Liam Hendriks instead, who broke Oakland’s habit of having a new closer emerge each season. Now on the White Sox, there's certainly a case for Hendriks as the No. 1 stopper after he posted an incredible 40.2% strikeout rate next to a minuscule 3.3% walk rate. That 12.33 K/BB was the best among closers, with Nick Anderson’s 8.67 coming up next. Pair him with a top catcher like Yasmani Grandal and oo-wee.

Tier Two

I know ratios are weird beasts for relievers, let alone when you get a short 2020 scorecard to peruse. But the aforementioned K/BB ratio raises Raisel Iglesias as a premier RP1. I like the move to the Halos and away from Great American Ballpark. His 6.20 K/BB mark was 6th among 141 RPs with at least 20 innings as he quickened a trend of diminishing free passes on the short year. He logged a career-worst 8.8% in ‘17, going to 8.6% in ‘18, 7.5% in ‘19, and 5.5% in ‘20. I’m projecting roughly 7% for ‘21 with hopes for more should that aggressive 67% first-strike rate from 23 frames last year carryover.

I’m on board with Aroldis Chapman here because the Yankees clearly love using him as a dedicated closer. Plus, the splitter looks legitimate and can offset some of the relenting velocity off the fastball.

Some people may be tempted to go towards Cleveland’s own Chapman-esque arm in James Karinchak, but I won’t be putting him in the top-five just yet.

Top 5 relief pitchers in strikeout rate:

Devin Williams 53.0%
James Karinchak 48.6%
Edwin Diaz 45.9%
Nick Anderson 44.8%
Tanner Rainey 43.2% pic.twitter.com/2ryjhH7ygH

— Michael Simione (@SPStreamer) November 28, 2020

But if you do, I won't scoff! As we’ve seen from other premier closers, you can live with higher walks (14.7% in ‘20, likewise in the minors) if hitters go to war for the slightest contact. His 48.6% strikeout rate led AL RPs as the 25-year-old can live off the elite heat and overpowering breaking stuff.

Brad Hand was recently signed by the Nationals coming off career-low 2.05 ERA and 0.77 WHIP marks. Folks may only recall his poor appearance in the ALWC against the Yankees, but he was nearly unhittable from mid-August through the end of September. After his first seven games yielded four earned on five hits with a lowly 7/4 K/BB ratio (5 ⅔ IP), he would give up just one run on eight hits over 16 ⅓ IP after that. In that span, he struck out 22 hitters and walked none. Yeah, he remains a top-10 option.

Kenley Jansen is on less stable ground than we’re used to, as manager Dave Roberts said he was unsure of Jansen’s role prior to the Dodgers’ World Series victory in Game 5. He had few hiccups during the abbreviated season itself, posting a fine 3.33 ERA where five of his nine earned runs came in one of his 27 appearances. Can you trust him over the course of a season? I will, but he’s barely in the top 10. He’s only above Nick Anderson because Tampa Bay won’t ever settle on a finite role for their relievers.

Tier Three

I don’t need to sing the praises of NL Rookie of the Year, Devin Williams, and his bat-resistant changeup anymore. Even if he never sees the ninth in 2021, his ratio relief and electrifying K/9 are worth targeting early. This is the point in most drafts where people accept the non-closer RPs in their life or pivot towards the RP10-15 closing targets such as Kirby Yates and Alex Colomé.

Taylor Rogers’ usage and performance disappointed many in 2020, with the southpaw turning in a 4.05 ERA while converting 9-of-11 save opportunities. He ceded several of those to Sergio Romo (now a free agent) and while there was brief hope Tyler Duffey would ascend, we now know it's Colomé who fills the ninth. Rogers will sprinkle in but is far more likely to be the B-side to Colomé's A.

Let’s give Craig Kimbrel a closer look because that name comes with some stank nowadays. After a delayed start to 2019 thanks to (rightful) contract demands, he would work through uncharacteristic control woes amid reports of tipped pitches. The 2020 season presented another unorthodox year and he once again struggled to shake off the rust. The resulting 6.00 ERA and 58/24 K/BB ratio in 36 IP the past two years has folks shying away.

But I believe he’s earned more leash than this, especially considering he strung together eight straight scoreless appearances without a walk to close out 2020. With multiple strikeouts in six of those games, he looked more like the Kimbrel of old. Given the small samples and strange circumstances around both 2019 and 2020 for him, I’m in for ‘21. But will the Cubs trust him enough to handle the ninth on his own?

Tier Four

The Pirates have little incentive to make a splash signing in the ‘pen to displace Richard Rodríguez, who brings healthy whiffs into whatever save opportunities Pittsburgh hands him. Be prepared for his being dealt at the deadline (or sooner) though. Mark Melancon is on the market and has that “Proven Closer” tag for contenders that need some assistance. I wouldn’t draft him early with the assumption that he grabs a clear closer role, however. 

The same goes for Will Smith in Atlanta, who may be platooned with a righty for 2021 and/or kept in a southpaw-oriented fireman role. Ditto, Giovanny Gallegos. Both of them are mighty talented but you must bake in the uncertainty that comes with the territory. As a result, the gap between them and others in Tier Five tends to be unfairly widened.

Drew Pomeranz remains a stellar non-closing RP that may enter a 50/50 split for the job pending other signings. And Aaron Bummer should grab the spotlight on an upstart White Sox squad after posting a 0.96 ERA with a meager -8.7-degree launch angle allowed in ‘20. I worry that they re-sign Alex Colome, however. Or at least bring in a right-handed option to do some lifting in those late innings.

Tiers Five, Six, Seven

Let’s dive into this whole pile. Daniel Bard, Hector Neris, Archie Bradley, Greg Holland and Diego Castillo can all lay claim to some or all of the closing duties for their team. But you don’t feel comfortable relying on them throughout the course of the year, and that’s understandable. They’ve all experienced a loss of command and been ousted from the closer’s role before.

But this is also where serious profits are generated. Speculating on late-round relievers is one of my favorite activities. I realize most of the players included here prior to the table cutoff are known -- this isn’t total flier territory quite yet (but that article is coming soon!) -- but most will be available after your draft ends. You’ll find some incredible K/9 value here with Tanner Rainey as well as reasonable insurance policies for closers in Zack Britton.

I’m giving Jordan Romano the edge over Rafael Dolis behind Kirby Yates in Toronto with how well Romano performed as the stopper prior to injury. Both did well, but if they showed a preference for Romano earlier then I can’t see anything changing. To say he was lights out might be underselling it.

Jordan Romano has a 0.64 ERA, 20 Ks in 14 innings, saved a big win today

Maybe most impressive: he has pitched in 14 of #BlueJays’ 27 games

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) August 25, 2020

The biggest questions for me surround Austin Adams, one of my dreamboat players before his knee injury, and Jordan Hicks. We could see Adams rise and knock aside Emilio Pagan from the right-handed late role alongside Pomeranz, though that hardly seems like a draft-day bet to make. Hicks underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019 before opting out of the 2020 season (he has Type 1 diabetes). He’ll rejoin a crowded ‘pen with Gallegos, Alex Reyes, and Andrew Miller.

Reyes will still have to prove he can stay healthy over the course of a full season but he stayed on the bump from mid-August on, recording a save in the playoffs after an improved September (11 ⅓ IP< 3 ER, 1 XBH, 16/6 K/BB) overshadowed a rusty August (8 ⅓ IP, 4 ER, 3 XBH, 11/8 K/BB).

I'm letting other people speculate on Roberto Osuna it seems, as I don't trust his elbow and I don't trust the optics of a team bringing him on before 2021 opens. If he takes a one-year "prove myself" type of deal to showcase his health and that his past won't cast a shadow on a team that isn't Houston then you're free to leap with the signing team. He may need to wait until the middle of the season, though. And without TJS, any sign of elbow/forearm pain will be curtains.

And I'll leave this here at the end as a "Who's That Statcast Bubble?" guessing game:

How about your new fave, @RowdyRotoJB pic.twitter.com/zEGGPFUgqE

— Nick Mariano (@NMariano53) January 15, 2021

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