Nick Mariano's Early 2021 Fantasy Baseball Second Base Rankings

November 15, 2020

RotoBaller's early 2021 fantasy baseball second base rankings and analysis for 5x5 roto mixed leagues, featuring ranks from #1 accuracy expert Nick Mariano.

As usual, I'll start by saying the 2021 baseball season may still be affected by COVID-19. Maybe even more labor disputes just for a curveball. But for now, let's just close our eyes and dream of a perfect world and chat as if a 162-game season will come next spring. Join me for my position-by-position ranking series for the 2021 fantasy baseball season.

How much weight do we give 2020? How well can you erase notions such as the East, Central, and West divisions only playing each other? How about the DH in the National League. For now, I'm operating under the assumption of no NL DH moving forward. And it's clear that many familiar names may be frozen out of fair contracts as owners cry about lost revenue from the limited 2020 season. Pour one out for the poor, poor owners.

We started with catchers and rounded first already, so let's hit second base. Traditionally a low-power, high-average, speed position, we've seen that evolve with more power (what hasn't these days?) but still stay rather true to those roots. Let's take second as we prepare for what we hope will be a refreshing 2021 season.

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Early 2021 Second Base Rankings - 5x5 Mixed Leagues

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. Be sure to follow his updated rankings all season long!

Tier One

It’s difficult to pin down DJ LeMahieu’s value without knowing where he’ll play, but he’s won batting titles in both the NL and AL and clearly settles down wherever there’s a batter’s box. Coors Field and Yankee Stadium are both hitter-friendly but it would take a bad environment to dethrone DJL’s elite average and solid power offering.

But if you were going to pivot at the position, it’s likely Ozzie Albies or Whit Merrifield. Albies only played 29 games (124 PAs) yet still had six homers and three steals, making for a rough 30/15 pace given a full year. The top of Atlanta’s lineup is a beautiful place to hit. And then Merrifield shook off worries of dwindled steals by going 12-of-15 on swipe attempts over 60 games. Mix in a healthy nine homers and the usual plus average (.282) to whip up a top player with OF flexibility sprinkled in. KC only yielded 68 R+RBI in those 60 games (LeMahieu had that in 50 games, Albies had 40 in 29) so be mindful of the offensive limitations -- though they’re flukier stats compared to HR/SB/AVG.

Tier Two

You’ll find four rebounds in here with Ketel Marte, Keston Hiura, Max Muncy, and Mike Moustakas. Marte and Altuve were huge disappointments given their average draft position, with Marte’s one-year glow-up being called into question while Altuve’s success is (rightfully) dogged by scandal. I’m willing to give Marte a combination of slight regression mixed with the wrist injury and still buy as a top-five option for 2020. His average exit velo on flies and liners fell from 93.5 mph to 91.6 mph while the barrel rate essentially halved itself, but I think much can be tied to the wrist. His 115.9 mph maximum exit velocity was still tied for eighth-best in the MLB, so I'm here for 2021 pending optimistic health reports with his contact/power tools.

hitters in the upper 10% of both whiffs/swing and max EV, by pitch class (min. 500 total pitches in 2020)

fastball:
• ketel marte (9.9% whf/sw, 115.9 mph)

breaking:
• Juan Soto (23.3% whf/sw, 112.9 mph) (cc: @SammyReidFI)

offspeed:
• yandy díaz (14.7% whf/sw, 113.0 mph) https://t.co/qh2Zda5lvA

— Alex Chamberlain (@DolphHauldhagen) November 10, 2020

I know people want to believe in Hiura off that electric 84-game sample from 2019 and a combined 32 dingers in 143 career MLB games. But there’s a huge problem overshadowing his development and that’s his poor results against the simple fastball. He’s only 24 years old and still had a beautiful 14.2% barrel rate in ‘20, but he only hit .224 off fastballs. The .239 xBA offers little optimism and his whiff rate on them soared to 41.5% from 30.9% in ‘19. Once again, it’s a small window for a young player but that is a glaring problem that needs solving.

Tier Three

If you had five guesses to get the only 2B other than LeMahieu to hit 10 homers with an average above .300, would you honestly get Robinson Cano? Well, now he's suspended so forget this paragraph. What a bum.

Likewise, if you had five guesses to get the only 2B-eligible player other than Merrifield with 12 SBs and at least eight homers, would you get Dylan Moore? Seattle’s 28-year-old utilityman seemingly sold out for attacking heaters with solid results. After hitting just .222 against fastballs in ‘19 (xBA of .210, n=691), Moore hit .333 (xBA .311, n=354) while dropping his whiff rate on them by five percentage points. And even though his sprint speed fell from ‘19 (28.4 ft/sec to 27.7), his home-to-first time was nearly identical and he picked his spots far better than in '19.

Dylan Moore SB%

2019: 11/20 55%

2020: 12/17 71%

— Matt Modica (@ctmbaseball) November 14, 2020

To be clear, I don’t think Jose Altuve is entirely the product of cheating but I don’t doubt he pressed to “prove us wrong” amongst other things. One of those things is the simple “small sample” explanation, as he popped in 13 playoff games (.375, 5 HR). I will say he went a combined 2-of-5 in steal attempts and is 8-of-18 going back through 2019. Expect some average bounceback and the power stroke remains, but don’t buy for speed.

Tier Four

Expectations for Tommy Edman were high after he burst on the scene with 11 homers, 15 steals, and a .304/.350/.500 slash across 349 PAs in ‘19, flashing modest pop and plus speed with an aggressive swing. All facets of his game came tumbling down, with the speed and average really sinking. He dropped off against fastballs, breakers, and offspeed pitches alike. His sprint speed didn’t change by much, but he went from going 15-of-16 on steal attempts in ‘19 to 2-of-6 in ‘20. The speed remains but he needs to hone his timing. At this point in the draft, I’m happy to target skills such as his that could rebound.

Folks may flock to the excitement and leave a post-hype bat in Nick Solak until the last round, if he's drafted at all. Solak teams must be okay investing in Globe Life Park and its pitcher-park ways, but even that can’t explain Solak’s 3.4% HR/FB rate (20.8% in ‘19, roughly 25% between 2018-19 in the minors). He’ll be 26 come Opening Day (we hope) and quietly showed a 20-steal pace in 2020.

Those looking for shiny new toys can polish off Nick Madrigal and Gavin Lux to get cheaper avenues to leading offenses. They each had a combined 178 PAs in 2020, but Madrigal hit .340 in 109 PAs while Lux only hit .175 in his 69 PAs. While Lux has a higher fantasy ceiling thanks to the power tool, Madrigal is ahead of him since injury was all that limited him in ‘20. I won’t bank on seeing 10 homers but a plus-plus average with steals and around 150 R+RBI will play. Lux has to earn his way into a regular starting role, but he’s one year removed from hitting .347/.421/.607 with 26 homers and 10 steals across 523 PAs between Double- and Triple-A. If he gets right then he’s a huge difference-maker on a team that’ll score a ton.

Profar received little fanfare entering 2020 despite just missing consecutive 20/10 seasons by one stolen base in ‘19, with the .218 average tanking interest. But an identical .218 BABIP was well below his .269 mark from ‘18 and that rose to .293 in a short ‘20, giving him .278 batting average next to seven homers and seven steals. His Statcast xBA of .284 provides a layer of comfort in believing the results, but the bottom line is SD’s aggression on the basepaths put him on a 20/20 full-season pace. Hopefully, wherever he signs takes a similar approach. For fun, here's a list of players with at least seven homers, seven steals, and an average above .270 from 2020:

Tier Five

I know I’m a Colorado fan-boy but Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson both have to be the most intriguing names of this bunch. I don't love either's floor because the Rockies are the Rockies, what with bungled playing-time concerns and road-trip blues as they try to find answers for the Coors hangover. But the ceilings here are juicy. Hampson gets more buzz these days so I'll stump for McMahon.

Not only does he get predictable Coors Field splits for you to utilize in deeper formats, but he boasts triple-eligibility around the diamond and won’t have Daniel Murphy clogging up the infield. He does lose the DH avenue to playing time in notoriously-mismanaged Colorado, but he just cracked nine homers with a .203 ISO in 193 PAs. That’s near his .200 ISO and 24 homers in 539 PAs in ‘19, but his average fell 35 points with an accompanying 37-point BABIP drop. I have faith and hope the Rox don’t overreact to a .194 BABIP versus southpaws, but optimism tends to be wasted at altitude.

Tiers Six & Seven

Cesar Hernandez got it done with a .283 average and 35 runs scored in just 261 PAs (58 games) but only three homers and zero steals attempted is a huge red flag for him. Without speed, he’s squarely in just-a-guy territory. But he'll remain viable if he's hitting leadoff again in 2021 thanks to plus runs and average. I don't want to draft based on that with little ceiling, though.

The Cardinals declined Kolten Wong’s option and so we must worry about his finding a full-time job, though stellar defense and an average bat should get it done. And Michael Chavis carries intrigue with power and modest speed, but if he’s not an everyday player then his upside is simply capped.

I won’t try to steer you away from Luis Arraez in 2021, but zero homers and zero attempted steals in his 121 PAs puts pressure on your other players to make that up. There’s undoubtedly a place for a career .331 hitter through 487 PAs, but I build my team around power and speed rather than average. That doesn’t mean I’ll automatically take Niko Goodrum over Arraez, but that represents a great conversation to have with yourself regarding your 2021 builds.

Goodrum will be 29 next year and just carries an awful 38.5% strikeout rate with huge slips in contact for a paltry .184 average in 179 PAs. But he also hit five homers and stole seven bases in just 43 games, putting a 15/20 season on the table. Detroit will likely have Goodrum at shortstop while Jeimer Candelario mans first, Willi Castro opens at second, and Harold Castro/Sergio Alcantara hit the hot corner pending FA signings. I won’t be shocked if someone steps into 1B and pushes Candelario back to 3B a la C.J. Cron. Anyway, the conclusion here is not to blindly follow (anyone’s) rankings and assume that because Arraez is higher than someone like Goodrum, that it’s always wiser to take Arraez.

A late pick for Ty France, Brendan Rodgers, or Jazz Chisholm could pay off handily if they're given playing time in 2021. France has the best chance of that in Seattle. Rodgers has the worst chance of that due to playing for the Rockies, who refuse to let their youth settle into regular roles. Clearly, it's because they're in contention for titles so often that they can't rebuild (ugh). For the record, I've been done with Rougned Odor for years now.

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