Nick Mariano's Early 2021 Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Rankings

November 20, 2020

RotoBaller's early 2021 fantasy baseball shortstop rankings and analysis for 5x5 roto mixed leagues, featuring ranks from #1 accuracy expert Nick Mariano.

As we begin to look towards the 2021 baseball season, we can only hope that COVID-19 will be handled well enough to let the season run as normal. Since this is a mere early ranking exercise and we have so much ahead of us, let's just close our eyes and chat as if a 162-game season will come next spring. Join me for my position-by-position ranking series for the 2021 fantasy baseball season.

How much weight do we give 2020? How well can you erase notions such as the East, Central, and West divisions only playing each other? How about the DH in the National League. For now, I'm operating under the assumption of no NL DH moving forward. And it's clear that many familiar names may be frozen out of fair contracts as owners cry about lost revenue from the limited 2020 season. Pour one out for the poor, poor owners.

We've hit catchers, first base, second base, and third base so far, so let's squeeze in shortstops next. Notoriously known as a well-rounded bunch with several five-category stars to be found, our 2021 batch is no different. Let's shift into gear with shortstops as we prepare for what we hope will be a refreshing 2021 season.

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Early 2021 Shortstop Rankings - 5x5 Mixed Leagues

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. Be sure to follow his updated rankings all season long!

Tier One

Even as president of the Trevor Story fan club, I recognize that Fernando Tatis Jr. is the first shortstop off the board in 2021. Even with a September slump, Tatis had 17 homers and 11 steals with a whopping 95 R+RBI over 59 games.

You can also easily make the case for Trea Turner, who hit 12 homers, stole 12 bases, topped 40 runs (46) and 40 RBI (41) while hitting .335. A bonafide five-category leader who led the top tiers of SS with a .394 OBP deserves our praise.

But naturally, I want the Coors kid in Story. His 11 homers and 15 steals came with a .289 average, giving him a BA between .289 and .294 in each of his last three years. He further trimmed his whiffs down to a career-low 24.3% with a 10.6% swinging-strike rate (11.9% in ‘19) and still delivered despite an unusual 13.4% HR/FB rate (19% career). Believe in talent and believe in Coors Field to win out. That said, if he's traded then we'll have to re-evaluate.

Noticing a trend with these guys?

Six guys with double-digit HR/SB in 2020

Fernando Tatis Jr. -- 17 HR / 11 SB
Jose Ramirez -- 17/10
Mookie Betts -- 16/10
Trea Turner -- 12/12
Trevor Story -- 11/15
Trent Grisham -- 10/10

close:
Whit Merrifield -- 9/12
Luis Robert -- 11/9

— Vlad Sedler (@RotoGut) September 28, 2020

Tier Two

This position is gifted, in case you forgot. And I'll happily state that the second tier at SS is better than the first tier of several other positions. While all three of the Tier One studs turned in double-digit homers and steals in ‘20, some will still favor Corey Seager thanks to his postseason heroics and dashing looks. Between 52 regular-season games and 18 more in October, Seager had 23 homers and 119 R+RBI alongside a .315 average. That’ll help anyone overlook a lack of plus-plus speed alright. His ceiling is capped at fourth for me as the top SS without elite steals.

Francisco Lindor was the SS1 on many boards entering 2020 but disappointed with a mere .258 average, eight homers, and six steals in a full 60 games. He could finish as the top SS in 2021 and most wouldn't bat an eye. Perhaps a fresh start away from Cleveland will help, but a likely park switch creates uncertainty. Meanwhile, Dansby Swanson also played 60 and cracked 10 homers with five swipes and a .274 average. Xander Bogaerts modestly hit .300 with 11 homers and eight steals, standing tall on a rebuilding BoSox squad. I'm hoping he somehow slides into the undervalued, overlooked veteran territory. This is a fun question to consider given his production amidst the elite SS landscape:

If Xander Bogaerts didn’t play SS, would he be a first round pick?

.300/.502/.867, 11 HR, 28 RBI, 8 SB#RedSox #MLB #FantasyBaseball

— Davey Lou (@sportz_nutt51) October 2, 2020

None of these guys give us much pause, there’s a clear case for their top status that you don’t need me for. That said, Gleyber Torres’ 2020 sticks out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of this tier. His power fell off the map while his plate discipline actually improved, so did he stop hunting as aggressively? His swing rate falling from 51.8% to 42% sure hints at it.

There were accompanying drops in Zone Swing% (75.6% to 66.9%) while his chase rate fell from 31.3% to 20.2%. Not only that, but his first-pitch swing rate crashed to 24.4% from 36.4%. Those thoughts of hitting first-pitch fastballs didn’t happen. You can see it in Savant’s “Meatball Swing%” as well, tumbling to 69.8% from 84.9% in ‘19. It’s no surprise his slugging against heaters plummeted from .609 to .425.

But here's a great example of small samples, because Torres turned around and went 10-for-23 with two homers and a 7/6 BB/K ratio in the postseason. I can't write off the oddities of his short 2020 season but I'm not letting it outweigh the elite form he's shown before. I'd be happy with any of these guys at SS.

Tier Three

It’s rare that you find a former first-rounder this late who’s unencumbered by injury and younger than 30, but here Villar is. Once upon a time, Villar hit 19 homers with 62 steals for the Brewers. But 2016 was a long time ago and while he rebounded with a 24/40 season for Baltimore in 2019, his bat went quiet in 2020. The speed remained with 16 swipes in just 207 PAs, but only two homers underscored a lowly .292 slugging percentage and .593 OPS that saw him lose his leadoff role within a month. Buy in at your own risk and we’ll see where the free agent lands and if he gets a starting job to provide elite speed in this steal-strapped era.

Marcus Semien’s ridiculous 2019 (33 HR, 123 Runs, 92 RBI, 10 SB, .285 AVG) was always going to hit some regression, but batting .223 in 236 PAs was several steps beyond the expectation. He still hit seven home runs with four steals in 53 games -- roughly a 20/12 pace -- but an eight-percentage-point rise in fly balls meant easier outs. A similar gain in strikeout rate (13.7% to 21.2%) meant the easiest of outs. Perhaps he tried too hard to match his career year ahead of free agency.

Tier Four

Kiwoom Heroes star Ha-Seong Kim has signed with the Padres and may win the 2B job outright, potentially giving him three positions for the 2021 season. On top of that, he could be San Diego's superuility player pending further moves and how they treat 2B and Jake Cronenworth.

He’s eligible to come over because he started his KBO career at 18 years old, hitting .280 or higher in each of his six full seasons and above .300 in three of his last four. But you’re not here for average, no, it’s the spike he saw with 30 homers alongside 23 steals in 138 games that you want. He’d typically been a 20-HR bat with 20-30 steals, but if he’s filled out more of the 5’9” frame and honed the power stroke then we’ve got to respect the ceiling. My initial projection has him hitting around .265-.270 with 18 home runs and 16 steals. I'm happy he's in SD where they run, run, run.

The upper class at SS feels like it runs forever, but the party abruptly ends right around Didi Gregorius for me. Sir Didi enjoyed Philly with 10 homers and a .284 average and is traditionally overlooked, but I feel many will circle him as their last-stand SS/MI play. Beware shoddy metrics under the hood, though.

Out of 438 hitters with at least 25 batted balls, Gregorius’ max exit velocity of 104.7 mph was 389th and his average exit velo on flies/liners was 90.2 mph, “good” for 348th. Compared to a max of 110.8 mph and AEV on flies/liners of 91.6 mph, it was a marked step backward. He usually outperforms modest sabermetrics but keep an eye on early velocities in 2021.

I don’t want to rely on Jorge Polanco, who needs yet another ankle procedure and had a down 2020. Chris Taylor played well but a bit over his head and comes with perpetual playing-time risk. Paul DeJong has been a bastion of power for too long to be dissuaded by three homers in 174 PAs in 2020, so he’ll probably be a good discount in drafts.

Tier Five

While the Rays’ postseason run familiarized many with Willy Adames, his hitting .136 with no homers in those 73 PAs won’t win anyone over. Some will look at the career-best .813 OPS over 205 PAs and see a quiet 20-25 homer pace with a .250s average and non-zero speed. No longer just a play in AL-only leagues, Adames is worthy of MI-slot consideration in 14-team mixed formats.

Elvis Andrus only hit .194 and age seems to be grabbing him. I’d love for Willi Castro, Mauricio Dubon, or Miguel Rojas to elevate but you realize 2021 upside is limited. My favorite of that bunch is Castro, who hit six homers with 45 R+RBI in just 36 games (140 PAs) with a .349 average. The .448 BABIP will slide back towards the mid-.300s but he’s only 23 and hit .301 with 11 homers and 17 steals in 119 Triple-A games in ‘19. A line-drive machine, Castro has the tools to hit .300 again with 15-20 homers. The speed has yet to carry into the bigs but the potential is there.

FINAL ROOKIE LEADERS (min. 120 PA):

AVG: Willi Castro, .349
OBP: Alec Bohm, .400
SLG: Castro, .550
OPS: Castro, .932
HR: Kyle Lewis/Luis Robert, 11
RBI: Robert, 31
SB: Robert, 9
H: Nick Solak, 56
R: Lewis, 37
wRC+: Castro, 151
fWAR: Lewis, 1.7

— Sam Dykstra (@SamDykstraMiLB) September 28, 2020

Tiers Six & Seven

The baseball card community is still excited when Nico Hoerner cards hit, but he’s shown little fantasy relevance in two short MLB campaigns thus far. He’ll still be 23 come Opening Day 2021 and can surely grow from a .247/.309/.333 line through 208 MLB PA. He’s never shown much pop, evidenced by just eight professional HR in 157 games including zero in 48 games this past season. The familiar, buzzy prospect name might leap out to you late in drafts but just be aware of the profile.

And how far do you reach for Wander Franco? Does he join the platoon ranks of Joey Wendle? Do you need to target steady-albeit-uninspiring PAs in Brandon Crawford, Andrelton Simmons, or Kevin Newman? I wouldn’t bank on Franco being a steady contributor in 2021 but no SS ranks page is complete without his mention. And any of those “plodding” shortstops could be displaced by pending free-agent signings. There’s little interest here at the end of the list, with late picks better used elsewhere.

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