Nick Mariano's Early 2021 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

November 18, 2020

RotoBaller's early 2021 fantasy baseball third base rankings and analysis for 5x5 roto mixed leagues, featuring ranks from #1 accuracy expert Nick Mariano.

Hope springs eternal for the 2021 baseball season, but it's hard to imagine we'll be completely past COVID-19 by then. Plus, we could see opening salvos for the CBA debates to come. But for now, let's just close our eyes and dream of a perfect world and chat as if a 162-game season will come next spring. Join me for my position-by-position ranking series for the 2021 fantasy baseball season.

How much weight do we give 2020? How well can you erase notions such as the East, Central, and West divisions only playing each other? How about the DH in the National League. For now, I'm operating under the assumption of no NL DH moving forward. And it's clear that many familiar names may be frozen out of fair contracts as owners cry about lost revenue from the limited 2020 season. Pour one out for the poor, poor owners.

We've hit catchers, first base, and second base already, so now we head to the hot corner. Traditionally high power and little else, we've seen stars evolve into five-category studs though most beyond the top tier are still true to that mold. Let's round third as we prepare for what we hope will be a refreshing 2021 season.

Early 2021 Third Base Rankings - 5x5 Mixed Leagues

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. Be sure to follow his updated rankings all season long!

Tier One

José Ramírez was a five-category stud and simply demands being the first 3B off the board. Playing in 58 games, JoRam hit 17 homers, swiped 10 bags, and hit .292 while collecting 91 R+RBI. When asked which player outside of my top three did I think had the best chance at finishing No. 1, he was my answer. While he'd miss Francisco Lindor if dealt, the tools offered at 3B here are too much to ignore. If you miss on him then most will be eyeing a resurgent Manny Machado after he slashed .304/.370/.580 with 16 dingers and six steals for Slam Diego, earning his spot as NL MVP finalist.

Manny Machado is a finalist for NL MVP.

The star third baseman had a bounce back season in 2020.

His offensive ranks in the NL:
4th – Hits (68)
3rd – RBI (47)
T3rd – HR (16)

He hit .304 with a .950 OPS. and is also a finalist for NL Gold Glove.

He edges Tatis as finalist. pic.twitter.com/Q2OpwYIWWX

— Darnay Tripp (@DarnayTripp) November 3, 2020

Tier Two

One of the better early values might be Rafael Devers, who just turned 24 and has three-plus seasons of experience under his belt. Boston missed Mookie Betts so I doubt Devers crosses the 700-PA threshold again as he did in ‘19, but his trajectory speaks to a 30-homer bat with a .300 average in the tank. Fenway Park remains a fantastic place to hit and if early contact indicators show him reverse the wild 10-percentage-point gain in K rate from last year (plus the subsequent seven-point dip in Z-Contact%) then you’ll be rolling in profits. A quiet question is does he start running again? Like Rendon and Bregman, Devers also didn’t attempt a steal in ‘20. Though he only went 8-for-16 on attempts in ‘19.

Then it’ll be a question of whether you’re buying low on Nolan Arenado and Alex Bregman. Arenado has been an early-round stalwart and had an obvious explanation for the struggles -- left AC joint inflammation and a left shoulder bone bruise will easily sap a swing. But the Rockies also tried different strategies to mitigate their poor hitting away from Coors, with Arenado’s resulting in lower whiffs but lesser contact. I trust both of these will get sorted with a full offseason, but Arenado’s mismanagement by the Rockies may lead to his leaving Coors -- and that would be crummy.

Bregman may be a lunkhead cheater, but his down 2020 may create a buying opportunity if he falls past pick No. 40. His hard-contact rate fell from 38% in ‘19 to 33.6% alongside a wOBA slip of .418 to .339 -- that’s sharp! But his lower barrel rate can still play with those danged Crawford Boxes in left field and I doubt he doesn’t attempt a single steal again in his age-27 season. Perhaps the hamstring injury was bigger than we knew. I hope Houston is playing in front of fans in ‘21 and they get dragged everywhere they go, but struggles in this short season can’t erase all the skills Bregman has begrudgingly shown thus far in the MLB.

Anthony Rendon remained an incredible hitter but the results were largely seen beyond our fantasy box score. Only nine homers, zero steals, and a .286 average while averaging roughly one R+RBI per game (60 in 52) doesn’t meet expectations. We can forgive R+RBI flukes -- those spikes will find great players who produce -- but this is a guy who hit above .300 in three straight seasons and chipped in five steals across ‘19. Perhaps his left wrist bothered him far more than he let on, but I’m still worried about his hitting in California compared to DC. Perhaps that led to him being more passive at the dish, racking up a career-best 16.4% walk rate and .418 OBP.

Tier Three

How about buy-low bats galore? Eugenio Suarez still cracked 15 homers but only hit .202 after undergoing shoulder surgery back in January 2020. Matt Chapman had 10 homers himself through just 39 games before requiring season-ending hip surgery. Yoán Moncada had COVID-19 and hit just .225 with six homers and zero steals over 52 games. Josh Donaldson was once again bitten by injuries and underperformed when active (6 HR, .222 BA in 28 games). Finally, Kris Bryant had back and wrist injuries while popping just four homers with 11 RBI and a .206 average in 34 games. This was a sad paragraph.

It’s no shocker that Bryant is at the bottom, with injuries and poor performance scaring me away in 2021. I acknowledge the fluky nature of RBI and won't harp on KB too much, but of all players with >140 PAs in 2020, only four others had fewer RBI: Kevin Newman (10), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (10), Shogo Akiyama (8), and Joe Panik (7). Ouch.

The clear question becomes “At what point are you okay with the risk?” and I look at Byron Buxton entering 2020 for that. Early NFBC ADPs of roughly 135 for Bryant compared to 200 for Donaldson have me thinking I'll be making it rain in 2021, but he comes later in Tier Four.

This is a fat grouping with some offering high power, others with high average, and even Biggio with 10-plus steal potential. You will have to decide if you’re okay paying up for less risk or if you’re comfortable playing chicken with other drafters and the medical bay for the Donaldson and Bryant types.

*Be sure to check if your league is resetting any IL spot changes that were implemented for 2020.

Tier Four

And now I can post this. Alex Fast neatly compiled all 37 of his 2019 homers within 2 mins before, a great reminder of JD's pop:

Congratulations, #Twins fans.

Here are all 37 of Josh Donaldson's - @BringerOfRain20 - 2019 HRs in under two minutes. pic.twitter.com/pXTNBbWF58

— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) January 15, 2020

How much helium does Ke'Bryan Hayes’ stock take on throughout the winter? In 95 MLB plate appearances, Hayes popped five homers with a steal while batting .376. That’s how you stand out amongst a terrible Pittsburgh offense. I imagine distrust of Pittsburgh will limit his rise but the aforementioned risky players in Tier Three could get adventurous and drawn in by shiny-new-toy syndrome. 

The 24-game MLB sample was awesome, but he hit 10 homers in 110 games (480 PAs) at Triple-A in ‘19. Even growth at 23 years old doesn’t justify a sudden 25% HR/FB rate (or that .450 BABIP). Going in with a projection of 20-25 homers with a .270s average and 6-8 steals feels reasonable, but his contact skills give him the potential to run up high-BABIP sprees. Matching Kyle Lewis' WAR in less than half the short season is pretty, pretty impressive:

Most WAR among rookie position players, 2020 (per @fangraphs):

Kyle Lewis: 1.7
Ke'Bryan Hayes: 1.7
Luis Robert: 1.5
Sean Murphy: 1.5
Jake Cronenworth: 1.4

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) November 9, 2020

Tier Five

Those waiting even longer need to remember that the NL likely won’t have the DH to offer players such as Brad Miller or super-utility types like Tommy Edman. I’m happy to invest in Edman, Austin Riley, and Ryan McMahon types who will be shuffled around but should still find many starting lineups. It helps that each of them have multi-position eligibility and can be shuffled elsewhere in most formats.

Brian Anderson and David Fletcher tend to be grouped into this “boring-yet-solid” club where most expect a plus average and decent pop at best. We’ve seen Anderson bust out of this mold with more power of late -- namely 11 HRs in 59 games this past year -- with Miami’s overall progression helping boost his stats. Those walls coming in surely won't hurt in the long run.

While Corey Seager earned the spotlight, brother Kyle quietly popped nine homers with five steals for the Mariners. Those are Cavan Biggio numbers without paying up for the “he could grow into a superstar!” vibe that comes with younger players like Biggio. The boring-vet discount works with Seager, and it costs little to see if he stays hot in ‘21. It also happens to be a contract year for him if you're into that. The same can be said for Miami’s Brian Anderson, who benefited from the smaller park with 11 homers in just 229 PAs. A 25-homer season doesn’t mean what it used to, but it’s still valuable.

If needing to dig deeper then I’d go in with a set category to target. The best all-around player will likely be Jean Segura but we’ve seen his average and speed start to tail off and this is where you want to aim for upside. While he may compile his way to a decent season and my ranks have to reflect that, he’s unlikely to win a league.

Tiers Six & Seven

The best bets to pop here are a rebound from Eduardo Escobar and a growth spurt for Carter Kieboom. While expecting Escobar to enjoy 2019’s career-best production (35 HR, 118 RBI) was never the bar, his slipping to an icy .212/.270/.335 slash line with just four homers in 222 PAs was horrid. Each of his previous three seasons resulted in at least 20 homers and an average between .254 and .272 so call me skeptical about treating his short struggles in ‘20 as an overriding factor. Would you believe his xBA actually went up to a career-high .263? The damage can be seen in the .395 xSLG though, down from .473 in ‘19. I’m guessing he’ll be free in most drafts and makes for a great lotto ticket at only 31 years old.

And then there’s Kieboom, who was given plenty of playing time at 22 years old but failed to hit a homer or steal a base in 122 PAs (33 games). While he only hit .202 even with the .299 BABIP, a 13.9% walk rate gave him a serviceable .344 OBP. Let’s not forget he had a .303/.409/.493 line in 494 Triple-A PAs, putting up 16 homers and five steals with a similar 13.8% walk rate. He’s got a solid eye and the power should show up as he fills out his frame. Washington won’t give him forever to figure it out, but you want flyers with upside that you can cut for an early waiver gem if floundering anyway.

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