November 29, 2022

Jon Anderson looks into the NFL DFS projections for week 13 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your DraftKings DFS lineups.

Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson back again to open up the week 13 DFS slate! If you're new here, this is not meant to be a definitive "picks" article, but just a first look to point out the best game environments and best projections and value plays. Quite often, by Sunday I'm not on all of the plays I start with here, but it does set the table for the rest of the week of search.

Again, I don't think it's profitable to build a lineup based on these picks, and certainly not this early in the week. You should be focusing heavily on game environments and correlations when building lineups, and this post doesn't really give you that. It's just a table-setter to look at the slate from a high level and pick out these mid-priced players. I hope it is helping, and I will continue to make it stronger as we move forward.

We are looking at the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, December 4th. Here we go!

Game Environments

We are missing the Bills and Cowboys from the main slate, but other than that it's a pretty loaded slate with most of the game's best players featured. We do have a couple of games exceeding the 50-point O/U threshold, so it should be a fun, high-scoring slate. Here are the top game environments.

1. KC @ CIN, 52.5 O/U, 2.5 point spread
2. JAX @ DET, 51.5 O/U, 1.5 point spread
3. LAC @ LV, 50.5 O/U, 1.5 point spread

An AFC Championship game rematch, and two young, fast offenses in Detroit. Let's get to the position breakdowns.

DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Top Raw Projections

Top Values

Mahomes is the top dog here, but Hurts is right on his heels. If the Bengals can keep pace with the Chiefs, as they have in the past, Mahomes is going to have a monster game - and we will want to find the cash to get up to him. However, paying that much for a QB really does set you back if you don't get that 30+ game, and Mahomes has disappointed at this salary five times this year.

The ceiling crown may still go to Jalen Hurts after we saw him run for 157 yards on Sunday Night against the Packers. The risk there is that the Titans run the ball very well (this is likely) and keep the ball out of Hurts' hands. I prefer Mahomes here.

On the cheap side of things, we have a couple of opportunities to pay way down here. Kenny Pickett has yet to score even 20 DraftKings points, but he's been above a dozen in five of his eight starts. He has also run for more than 30 yards on three occasions and does look to be improving before our eyes after that nice win on Monday Night over the Colts. The Falcons' defense has given up 20+ point games to iffy quarterbacks this year (Jameis Winston, P.J. Walker, Geno Smith), and they've only really throttled the quarterback on one occasion (Taylor Heinicke last week).

Speaking of Heinicke, there he is just below Pickett - but he doesn't have quite the same floor since he doesn't run nearly as much and just hasn't looked all that impressive this year.

This is a really tough week at QB, so I will probably be looking to find my way onto Mahomes and get some of that late-game hammer action.

DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

I think it's fair to just not pay these kinds of prices for CMC until further notice. He has averaged fewer than 13 carries per game in the last three weeks and the targets have been more good (6, 7, 6) than elite over that time. He has not cracked 20 DK points since week 8, so he's definitely not a cash play at that price.

Austin Ekeler is the top play on the board in a great matchup with the Raiders. He has seen ridiculous target counts over the last six weeks:

• 16 vs. DEN
• 12 vs. SEA
• 8 vs. ATL
• 12 vs. SF
• 2 vs. KC
• 15 vs. ARI

He has scored at least 13 DraftKings points every week since week one and has gone above 25 points on four occasions. He's the best floor-ceiling play on the slate and I don't think it's very close.

The third top dog is Henry, who will certainly see a huge workload as the way to beat the Eagles is clear - run and hold the ball as much and as long as you possibly can. We have seen D'Andre Swift (144) and Dameon Pierce (139) have monster games on the ground against Philadelphia, and some injuries on the Philly side has made the run appeal even stronger. The problem is that Henry's floor is incredibly, incredibly low in this spot, so he's probably not a cash play.

We have a long way to go before feeling great about the RB position here with plenty of injury news still to come out. Jeff Wilson Jr. will be a decent play if Raheem Mostert remains out, but he's untouchable if Mostert is back in - and a tough play against the 49ers anyways. Latavius Murray had just 11 DraftKings points against Carolina last week as the Broncos just can't do anything with the ball, so he's a borderline play even with the cheap price and the RB1 role there. Michael Carter is firmly questionable, which could open up some value for a guy like Zonovan Knight who carried it 14 times for 69 yards and earned three targets last week. He sets up fine at $4,600 if Carter is out.

Don't make any decisions now, let's move on to the pass catchers.

DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

Tyreek Hill is the top projected player here, but maybe he shouldn't be. The 49ers are a stout defense. Hill's ceiling isn't really affected by defense given his absurd talent and the level of play we've seen from Tua, but it's a tough button to push for $8,800 in cash. Davante Adams is the next guy there but his floor has been pretty disappointing with four games under 15 points this year, although the ceiling is absurd and that's a pretty interesting game to go to.

The "too cheap" receivers are clearly Amon-Ra St. Brown and Keenan Allen. These two are superb cash plays week in and week out with the crazy amount of targets they get. St. Brown has double-digit targets five times this year and has been held under eight just once while fully healthy (against New England). He's a great cash play, as is Allen (15 targets his last two games and in a great matchup there).

We should see Ja'Marr Chase back for this huge game against Kansas City. That isn't an overly bad thing for Higgins, who was still earning a ton of targets with Chase as his counterpart, and when both of those two are out there running that offense becomes very tough to cover.

I prefer these mid-range receivers this week for sure, I think the pay-up spots are looking like Mahomes and Ekeler right now instead of the big wide receivers.

One more thing to mention would be the duo of Christian Kirk and Zay Jones in that Detroit game. Those two have combined for a 45% target share for the Jaguars, and that is up at 56% over the last four weeks. Playing those two together for $11,200 doesn't sound all that bad to me, they have combined for 31, 49, and 39 points over the last three weeks - and that would work just fine for that pricetag and the matchup doesn't get any better.

DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

There are two stand-out tight ends here, Dulcich and Hurst. Dulcich has seen a good role in his time with Denver, typically getting one or two down-field shots. They haven't resulted in a great game yet (a max of 12.7 DraftKings points), and he's coming off of an injury, but the ceiling is there for the price. Hurst is dinged by the return of Chase, but even so, he has seen seven or more targets five different times this year. He has one of the best roles of any tight end in the league, this is a great game environment, and the price is still cheap.

That's it, we've popped the top on another tough Sunday NFL DFS slate. I hope it helps, but remember to keep checking back all week long for more NFL DFS picks and analysis right here on RotoBaller!

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