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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on May 14, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's Mother's Day main slate features an enticing nine-game mix. The weather looks mostly clear, though it's essential to check in with your preferred meteorologist ahead of lock. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/14/2023 and the slate locking at 1:35 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Logan Gilbert, SEA vs. DET ($9,400 DK, $10,100 FD)
On the surface, Gilbert is having a strong season featuring a respectable 3.79 ERA through seven starts. Underneath are metrics begging for positive regression. Gilbert carries a 2.65 xERA, 2.87 xFIP, .257 xwOBA, .331 xSLG, .218 xBA, and 5% barrel rate. These are ace-type numbers, and it's only a matter of time before Gilbert really hits his stride. And we haven't even gone over Gilbert's elite 31.4% strikeout rate. He recorded ten strikeouts in his last outing and has struck out at least six in every appearance this season. That's about as firm a floor as you can ask for from a pitcher.
The best part of Gilbert's outlook today is the matchup. The Tigers score just 3.5 runs per game. Detroit brings a .637 team OPS against right-handed pitchers, the second-worst mark in the majors, including a 24.7% strikeout rate, 78 wRC+, and .283 wOBA. The Tigers are among the easiest opponents Gilbert could draw.
With a high strikeout upside and a favorable matchup, Gilbert will surely be a popular play on this slate. His pricing is reasonable enough, and the floor/ceiling combo is unrivaled by any other arm today. Roster Gilbert with confidence and look to get different elsewhere.
Lucas Giolito, CWS vs. HOU ($8,000 DK, $9,500 FD)
Moving out of our comfort zone and into riskier play territory, Giolito is worth a hard look today. He's pitching a lot better than he did in 2022, sporting a 3.56 xERA, .296 xwOBA, .222 xBA, 25.1% strikeout rate, and a 5.5% walk rate. Giolito doesn't excel at any one thing but is above average at just about everything so far. Notably, he is an effective innings eater, having pitched at least six innings over each of his past six outings.
The matchup here is a lot more interesting than you might expect. The Astros have been one of the league's toughest offenses for years, but this season is a wildly different story. In the absence of Jose Altuve, and with big names like Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker slumping, Houston averages a middling 4.2 runs per game. That includes a .657 OPS against right-handed pitching, the fifth-worst in baseball, a .118 ISO, 85 wRC+, and a 23.5% strikeout rate. Further, Giolito's struggles last season were isolated to mostly right-handed hitters – an area Houston is noticeably deficient in.
There's always some risk with Giolito, but it's not nearly as pronounced as it was last season. He's a workhorse with above-average strikeout stuff and an unexpectedly favorable matchup today. Crucially, Giolito is very cheap on DraftKings, providing valuable salary relief to bolster your lineup elsewhere.
Also consider: Mitch Keller, Hunter Brown, Max Scherzer
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Rowdy Tellez – 1B, MIL vs. Jordan Lyles ($4,200 DK, $3,100 FD)
Jordan Lyles leads the majors with 13 home runs surrendered this season, including a .534 xSLG, .363 xwOBA, and a 13% barrel rate. Traditionally left-handed hitters have gotten the better of Lyles, slugging .472 against him for his career, but this year he's getting shelled indiscriminately of handedness. Naturally, it's a good idea to target some Brewers.
Rowdy Tellez is the most likely to go yard for the Brewers in this spot. He leads the team with ten home runs this season, nine of which have come against right-handed pitchers. Tellez is slugging .568 against righties this season, including a .326 ISO and .372 wOBA.
Christopher Morel – 2B/3B/OF, CHC vs. Louie Varland ($4,000 DK, $3,200 FD)
Morel tore it up at Triple-A to start the season, posting a 1.156 OPS with 11 home runs in 29 games. Since getting called up to the majors earlier this week, Morel has hit the ground running. He's hit safely in all four games so far, including three multi-hit performances and two home runs. Morel is as hot as can be at the dish right now, and his price may not hang around in the midrange for much longer.
Morel will take on Louie Varland, who has struggled mightily against right-handed hitters during his brief MLB career. Righties have taken Varland deep four times this season, boasting a .537 against him through three outings.
Nick Pratto – 1B/OF, KC vs. Colin Rea ($2,700 DK, $3,300 FD)
On DraftKings, Pratto's price is just too low for how well he's performing. Since getting called up at the end of April, he's recorded six multi-hit games out of fourteen appearances and is slashing .340/.426/.509 for the season. Pratto showcased 60-grade power in the minors, launching 36 home runs during his last full minor-league season in 2021. His numbers may regress over a full campaign, but his bat is hot at the moment, and the pedigree is encouraging.
Pratto will square off against Colin Rea. The 32-year-old has never found much success in the majors, though 2023 has been his best iteration yet. Still, Rea has allowed a 90.3 MPH average exit velocity and a 40% hard-hit rate and has been no stranger to the long ball this season.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jorge Soler – OF, MIA vs. Luke Weaver ($4,900 DK, $3,100 FD)
Soler has been due for positive regression all season, and the payoff has seemingly arrived. He's hit safely in eight of his last nine appearances, including four multi-hit games and four home runs in that span. Soler's slash line is up to .245/.323/.504, and his advanced numbers tell us more good is coming down the pipeline – .566 xSLG, .380 xwOBA, 50.5% hard-hit rate, 93.1 MPH average exit velocity, and 18.9% barrel rate.
He'll square off against Luke Weaver, who has found it impossible to keep the ball in the yard this season. He's allowed eight home runs through four starts, including a .532 xSLG, 52.2% hard-hit rate, and 16.4% barrel rate. The conditions are favorable for another Soler bomb.
Luke Raley – 1B/OF, TB vs. Clarke Schmidt ($3,700 DK, $3,000 FD)
Raley is scorching hot at the plate, hitting safely in seven of his last eight games entering today. That stretch includes five multi-hit performances and three home runs. Overall, Raley ranks in the 95th percentile or better with each of his .568 xSLG, 56.9% hard-hit rate, 93.6 MPH average exit velocity, and 22.4% barrel rate. All that amounts to a .923 OPS. .326 ISO, and eight home runs.
On the mound, Clarke Schmidt is getting smacked around this season to the tune of a .488 xSLG, .359 xwOBA, 50% hard-hit rate, .286 xBA, and 12% barrel rate. In particular, his struggles against left-handed hitters are remarkable, surrendering a .689 slugging percentage and five home runs against them this season.
Marcell Ozuna – OF, ATL vs. Yusei Kikuchi ($2,600 DK, $2,700 FD)
Ozuna has looked washed for most of the campaign, but this past week has me questioning how much pop is still left in the tank. He's recorded five home runs in his last seven games. Ozuna is a punt play for sure, but there's a worthwhile upside at his price.
Yusei Kikuchi is as susceptible as any pitcher to the long ball. He's surrendered a .487 xSLG and eight home runs so far this season. In 2022, right-handed hitters slugged .535 against him with 21 home runs. If not Ozuna, then somebody on the Braves likely takes him deep today.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Clarke Schmidt
Clarke Shmidt's struggles are documented above – 5.47 xERA, .488 xSLG, .359 xwOBA, 50% hard-hit rate, and 92.3 MPH average exit velocity. His problems are particularly bad against left-handed hitting, and playing in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium sure won't help matters.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Stacking the Rays has won a lot of people a lot of money this season. They're scoring 6.1 runs per game, including a league-leading .843 OPS, .230 ISO, and 138 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. There are plenty of options ranging from value to premium, so there's an opportunity to get creative with your stacks.
Favorite Plays: Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, Luke Raley, Isaac Paredes, Josh Lowe
Atlanta Braves vs. Yusei Kikuchi
Yusei Kikuchi gets hit hard, sporting a .487 xSLG, .338 xwOBA, 92.2 MPH average exit velocity, 46.8% hard-hit rate, and 9.9% barrel rate. That all amounts to a 4.75 xERA and eight home runs surrendered this year. Kikuchi will have his hands full with this Braves lineup.
The Braves are scoring 5.2 runs per game and have been particularly lethal against left-handed pitching. Atlanta ranks second in the majors with a .923 OPS against southpaws, including a .242 ISO, 146 wRC+, and .393 wOBA. The big names in this lineup will come at a cost, but it will be worthwhile if you can get there.
Favorite Plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies
Also Consider: Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins
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