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Ryan Kirksey's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 10 (2024), and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leery of these hot streaks?
With the weekend upon us, a fresh batch of fantasy baseball waiver wire recommendations will fill the RotoBaller feeds. Our team's various waiver wire recommendations are coming with full force this weekend so be sure to check out all the great articles there. As we consider players who are in the midst of hot streaks or expanded roles on their teams, there is always a buyer-beware element to our waiver wire decisions.
Are hot streaks a result of luck or a change in skills or roles? Will today's costly waiver wire investment just end up on tomorrow's most-dropped list just because we were trying to chase an unsustainable set of statistics? Evaluating the hot waiver wire recommendations for their under-the-hood performance will help fantasy managers further understand not only should an investment be made in certain players, but also how much of an investment to acquire their services.
Below are four players who are widely recommended as waiver wire options across the fantasy baseball industry this weekend that deserve a closer look. It's not to say that these are not strong options for your teams considering your league's context, but each deserves a more critical eye based on their recent performance.
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Jacob Young, Washington Nationals
Let's get one thing clear about Jacob Young. If your team is absolutely desperate for steals and you can tolerate Young giving you nothing else in the fantasy categories, then go ahead and pick him up. He is at 15 steals already on the season and it would be no surprise to him to get to 40 this season. Young has minor league seasons of 52 and 39 steals in his resume and he had 13 steals in 33 games in 2023. But what concerns me the most about Young is not his ability to get on base at a regular clip and steal bases, but rather the opportunity he may not have to get on base.
When Lane Thomas returns from injury sometime next week, the Washington Nationals are going to have a choice to make. Do they bench Joey Gallo (yes, please) or Joey Meneses (unlikely)? They can't lose Eddie Rosario and Jesse Winker in the outfield, so assuming Thomas takes an outfield spot, where does that leave Young? The most likely solution is to send Victor Robles down to AAA and let Young play the fourth outfielder role. But that will certainly minimize his plate appearances. He has benefited from starting 23 of the Nationals' last 25 games.
Young's hard-hit rate and barrel rate are terrible, but that's not really his game. He needs to get on base via speed or walk, and then cause havoc on the basepaths. I certainly believe he can do it, but the question remains, will he have enough playing time to justify it. Young is available in 75% of Yahoo! leagues right now, but exercise caution if you're looking for a player whose name is guaranteed to be in the lineup card every day moving forward.
Luis Rengifo, Los Angeles Angels
Luis Rengifo is an easy player to root for and one of those multi-position sparkplugs that does a little bit of everything to help our fantasy teams. He is also all over this weekend's waiver wire recommendations after hitting .321 with three home runs, six stolen bases, and nine RBI over the last 30 days. He is eligible at four positions now in many fantasy leagues (2B, SS, 3B, OF). But even with all of that going for him, there are a couple of things pointing to his production potentially going south in the coming weeks.
The first thing that immediately stands out that could be boosting Rengifo's production is his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). At .347 this season, it's around 60 points higher than his career rate, and it's driving a batting average (.308) that is 40 points more than any other season in his career. His hard-hit rate and exit velocity are also down so it's not like some positive change in his batted ball profile is driving the high average either.
Luis Rengifo has a homer, a single and a double in his first three trips tonight.
And the Angels are losing 10-2.
(Insert your own comment here.)
— Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherOCR) May 25, 2024
I also really appreciate the 12 stolen bases he has this season, but is that more of an aberration of his high on-base percentage (.362)? Rengifo has never stolen more than six bases in a season and now he has 12 with still two-thirds of a year to go? He is not an especially fast runner but rather has been picking his spots so far this year. When the amount of time on base comes down, so will the opportunity to keep stealing.
Joey Ortiz, Milwaukee Brewers
Everything about the .278 average and the .382 on-base percentage Joey Ortiz has in 2024 looks legitimate. He has a very low 16% strikeout rate, he walks 13% of the time, and his .303 BABIP is just slightly above league average for hitters. His Baseball Savant expected batting average is .261, so some slight regression could come, but he mostly looks solid. If batting average is your team need, proceed as necessary. But if power and run production are what you're looking for, I might suggest looking elsewhere.
Heading into Friday's games. Joey Ortiz had a .504 slugging percentage, including five home runs, seven doubles, and two triples. However, his expected slugging percentage is only .405 according to Baseball Savant, a difference of 0.99 points. That may not sound like a big deal, but that's the ninth-largest discrepancy in the entire Major Leagues in 2024. Ortiz's barrel rate, hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and sweet spot percentage are all below the 40th percentile compared to other hitters this year.
Eventually, some of that lack of power could start to hinder his batting average. Ortiz only hits 36% fly balls in 2024, but he has a 15% HR/FB rate, and if that normalizes somewhat, the power could start to dwindle away. Ortiz has certainly carved himself out a role in this Brewers' offense in 2024, but beware that some of the power could start to fade.
Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
Taj Bradley's return from a pectoral injury that kept him out for more than six weeks was a welcome sight for both the Rays and for fantasy managers. As he ramps up his workload, those in need of starting pitching have been carefully watching Bradley to see what his pitches look like, what his velocity is, and how far he goes in games. After three starts each with at least six strikeouts, fantasy managers are starting to buy back in, but after Bradley's implosion for five runs on May 20th, caution must be exercised here.
Taj Bradley in the 1st:
11 Pitches
3 Ks
4 Whiffs
57% Whiff Rate
Topped 98.5 MPH🔥Velo: 📈
4-Seam: +1.1 MPH
Cutter: +0.5 MPH
Splitter: +1.3 MPH#RaysUp #Rays #MLB pic.twitter.com/eNMNBLcKzv— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) May 20, 2024
Bradley is a popular name in waiver wire articles this weekend, with his roster percentage in Yahoo! leagues at just 47%. More than half of those leagues have a chance to acquire him immediately. But while I love the strikeouts and the WHIP so far, there is a case for not blowing a large chunk on your free agent budget on Bradley.
The primary concern through his first three starts is the sheer volume of hard contact he is allowing. Bradley's hard-hit rate allowed has jumped from 46% in 2023 to over 50% this season, and his average exit velocity is more than two miles per hour higher. That's caused his barrel rate from 2023 (10.5%) to double this year (20.5%). This directly impacted his last start when he gave up two home runs as part of the five runs allowed. His 4.00 ERA looks shakier compared to his expected ERA of 5.59. I'm going to need to see a couple of more starts to be sure on Bradley.
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