Breakout Candidates At 2B For 2023 Fantasy Baseball

March 9, 2023

Pranav Uppalapati's fantasy baseball second base breakouts and draft targets for 2023. Who could be in for a big fantasy season?

Second base. Some say it’s the most unheralded position in baseball, the glue of the infield. There’s been no shortage of legends who called the position home: from Roger Hornsby to Joe Morgan to Dustin Pedroia.

In fantasy baseball, second base has been one of the least productive roster spots over these past few years. Outside of Marcus Semien, Jose Altuve, and Ozzie Albies, the position’s production outlook is bleak.

But maybe this is only a short-term lull. The current lack of offensive talent at the position may just be due to a changing of the guard. There is an influx of middle infield talent that is ready to take the league by storm. Four of those guys should break out at the second base position in 2023.

Vaughn Grissom, Atlanta Braves

ADP: 167

Vaughn Grissom was called up to the majors from AA last August. While that kind of call-up is uncommon, the Braves desperately needed someone to fill in for injured second baseman Ozzie Albies.

Grissom was serviceable in that role, slashing .291/.353/.440 with five HRs in 41 games. Grissom helped keep the ship steady as the Braves would push to a 101-win season in absence of one of their best offensive contributors.

His 2023 is primed to be much better. ATC projects a 2.6 WAR season for Grissom. Much of that WAR is off of better offensive production because the ATC prediction model projects a poorer defensive showing than other models.

If you are seriously worried about his defense at shortstop, don’t be.

Grissom has been working with the esteemed Ron Washington. As a coach, Washington was instrumental in Eric Chavez’s six-year run as the AL’s best defensive shortstop. Washington also turned Dansby Swanson from a negative OAA shortstop to a platinum glove contender.

While he will man shortstop with Ozzie Albies back in the fold, Grissom still maintains 2B eligibility in fantasy. Being the everyday shortstop on a baseball superteam means that even if his offensive production ends up being average, he will still rack up RBIs and runs (ex. Dansby Swanson’s 2022 season).

A full season in the majors will help the former fourth-rounder earn more than 11 wins on one of the best teams in the league. Strider's ERA estimators prove his 2.67 mark is less fluke than skill, and fantasy managers can expect an increase in WHIP, but his ATC projection predicts a 1.09 WHIP in 2023. Altogether, he will provide a ton of value in every category and will be a stud again this season. 

Enmanuel Valdez, Boston Red Sox

ADP: Undrafted

I promise I’m not overreacting to an impressive Spring training… or at least I’m not the only one overreacting to an impressive Spring training.

After several standout Spring training performances, Red Sox manager Alex Cora has called Valdez a “do damage hitter” who “controls the strike zone.” This praise from the Red Sox manager opens the door for Valdez to become a starter at second base in 2023.

Valdez spent 2022 in the minor leagues and arrived at the Red Sox’s minor league system from the Astros in the Christian Vazquez trade. In 82 games at the AAA level, Valdez had an OPS of .815 with 17 HRs.

They’re calling him baby Juan Soto (Soto is only two months older than Valdez, but never mind that). For Valdez to have a breakout, he would only need to play half as well as Juan Soto. And I wouldn’t be surprised if he jumps way over that bar.

The Red Sox second base spot is still wide open. Christian Arroyo is the frontrunner, but his poor defense (bottom 10th percentile for OAA) may play him off the field. Adalberto Mondesi carries more prestige, but many failed seasons in Kansas City and a history of injuries make him easy to outplay.

Valdez should hit the majors this year, and with the power talent displayed and the holes in the Red Sox middle infield, it won’t be surprising if he stays there.

Jon Berti, Miami Marlins

ADP: 269

Yes, well aware that Jon Berti is 33. It is rare to use the term breakout to refer to a 33-year-old in baseball, but Berti may very well be in for one.

Despite nearing geriatric status, recent rule changes have shifted the playing field for Berti, giving him the opportunity to put up numbers we haven’t seen since the days of Ricky Henderson.

The MLB is practically begging teams to jack up the stealing. The combining of the pitch clock, bigger bases, and just a general directive from the league to get those steal numbers up will be enough to jack up steal numbers for players across the league

Berti had 40 steals in a 2022 season where the league median for steals per team was only 0.5. With the predicted uptick in steals, Berti could be in for a 50-steal season. If Berti was to lead the league in steals again this year, it would make him the league’s premier base stealer.

While Berti is not the best hitter (projected for around a league-average OPS+ of 100), his plate discipline (80th percentile for walk rate), defense (86th percentile for OAA), and speed should keep him on the field as the Marlins’ primary shortstop.

Luis García (2B), Washington Nationals

ADP: 347

No, not that Luis Garcia.

I’m sure many have already cursed the name of Washington Nationals second baseman Luis García as they haphazardly draft him instead of the Astros starting pitcher. I have sympathy, but don’t let any struggles with Fantrax’s search bar feature change your perception of this Luis García.

After returning to the majors in June, García slashed .275/.295/.408 with 45 RBIs and a max exit velocity of 113.4 mph (ranking in the 92nd percentile). It was an altogether modest season at the plate, but García was able to showcase his talent with several hard hits and 2 .800+ OPS months.

García is not a great defender, and he seems to swing without restraint, but that won’t be nearly enough to take him off the field. With absolutely no major league depth in the middle infield, the Nationals would need to keep him on the field.

Talent and playing time is a potent formula that consistently produces breakout players. Luis García is a great late-round target for either middle infield position.

More Sabermetrics & Statcast for Fantasy Baseball