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Zach Thompson's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/5/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Seiya Suzuki, Cam Smith, Addison Barger, and Mickey Moniak.
Hopefully, Major League Baseball has some fireworks left over after an exciting Fourth of July! On Saturday, nine games are scheduled for the afternoon with six more under the lights, putting all 30 teams in play for a great day of baseball. Let's look through the options and try to find some home run props to power us through the day. The RotoBaller team has been red-hot this week, and I'll do my best to keep it going this Saturday with these selections.
When selecting players for home run props, several key factors should be considered. Batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors are all key indicators that can help set up players in good spots to smash. It's also critical to consider the odds since paying inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs can quickly burn through your bankroll without restocking it enough when the picks do hit.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, July 5, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/5/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Saturday, July 5:
- Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
- Addison Barger, Toronto Blue Jays
- Cam Smith, Houston Astros
- Mickey Moniak, Colorado Rockies
Seiya Suzuki OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+220 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The correct play for home run props on the Fourth of July was pretty much anyone from the Cubs. The team smashed a franchise-record eight homers in its 11-3 win over the Cardinals, and the weather at Wrigley Field looks to be very homer-friendly again on Saturday afternoon, with temps in the 90s and the wind blowing out at 15 miles per hour. In such a great environment, the odds are all a little lower for the Cubs, but Suzuki is still a great play to consider.
The reason Suzuki is my Cubs pick on Saturday afternoon is partially due to the matchup. The Cardinals are starting Matthew Liberatore, who is a lefty and holds lefties to a .191 batting average with no homers this season. Right-handed hitters have had a little more success with seven homers and a .303 wOBA.
Suzuki got the Cubs' home run barrage started in the first inning with his 24th homer of the season.
Seiya Suzuki and PCA go BACK-TO-BACK 💥
(Via @AppleTV) pic.twitter.com/5TmH0g2Hg6
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) July 4, 2025
Eight of his 24 homers have come off left-handed pitching, and he is hitting .300 against southpaws with a .990 OPS. Suzuki has been good all season, but he has been especially effective lately with six of his home runs in his last 12 games. During that span, he has an average exit velocity of 95.1 miles per hour and a 60% hard-hit rate.
With Suzuki smashing and the situations just right at Wrigley, he should be in a good spot to go yard again on Saturday. I'm not sure the whole team will get in on the action as it did on Friday, but at least Suzuki has great power potential, and I'm willing to go with him in this spot even though the odds are a little shorter than what I prefer to target as a general rule.
Addison Barger OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Blue Jays keep rolling and now have a 2.0-game lead over the Yankees in the American League East after sweeping New York to start the week. The Jays stayed hot and won on the Fourth of July against the Angels on a walk-off bunt.
Over the last month, Barger has shown a flair for something a little more powerful than bunting. The 25-year-old lefty has had elite contact metrics all season and is starting to get the launch angle right to park more of his smashes in the outfield bleachers.
Barger had two homers in the Yankees series, giving him 11 homers on the year.
Addison Barger bashes a homer for the second straight game! 💥 pic.twitter.com/CTP46dkC9g
— MLB (@MLB) July 4, 2025
Eight of his 11 homers have come at home at Rogers Centre, and all 11 have come against right-handed pitchers. Since he faces righty Jack Kochanowicz and the Angels in Toronto on Saturday afternoon, Barger will be on the strong side of both of those splits with a good chance to go deep.
Kochanowicz is an excellent matchup since he is 3-8 in 17 starts with a 5.44 ERA and 5.54 FIP while giving up 15 home runs in 17 starts. Of those 15 homers, 13 have been hit by left-handed hitters like Barger. Lefties have a .300 batting average and .387 wOBA against Kochanowicz overall but have been even better when he's on the road. When he's on the road, Kochanowicz has let lefties hit .315 with a .426 wOBA.
Barger has hit nine home runs in his last 29 games, with a .269 batting average and an even better .296 xBA based on his 51% hard-hit rate and average exit velocity of 91.6 miles per hour. Barger ranks in the top five percent of all qualified hitters in the majors for bat speed and average exit velocity while ranking in the top six percent in hard-hit rate.
With such strong splits and such good recent numbers, I'm backing Barger to blast one this Saturday.
Cam Smith OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Smith is another young hitter who seems to be finding a great groove. He had a slow start after surprising many people by making the team out of spring training after joining the 'Stros as part of the return in the Kyle Tucker trade. Smith was hitting .245 with three homers after his first 50 games, but since then, he has posted a .381 batting average with four homers in his last 24 games.
In those 24 games, Smith has a 52% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 91.7 miles per hour. He had three batted balls with an exit velocity of over 103 miles per hour in Friday night's win over the Dodgers, so he's making great contact, even though he didn't get one out of Dodger Stadium. He's hitting everything extremely well since making a swing change, and he is quickly emerging as one of the most exciting young prospects in the majors.
Cam Smith made a swing change in mid-May and has thrived.
His stance is now 12* more open, and he is deeper in the box. Smith is letting the ball travel and his intercept pt is 2.5 inches closer to home.
AvgEV: 85.7📈91.6
HH%: 37.9%📈50.9%
zCon: 80%📈86.7%
Cont%: 71.3%📈77.7% pic.twitter.com/4NmFGyulzd— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) July 4, 2025
Smith and the Astros crushed the Dodgers on Friday in the series opener, winning by a score of 18-1 with five home runs. Dodger Stadium should be set up well for more home runs on Saturday night since the forecast is once again for warm SoCal temperatures and breezes blowing out.
Smith will probably get his first at-bat against Shohei Ohtani, who will open against the Astros before handing the ball to Justin Wrobleski as the bulk reliever. The lefty Wrobleski is the matchup I like the most in this spot since he has allowed four homers this season in just 35 1/3 major league innings while also allowing six homers in 40 2/3 innings in the minors. Righties have hit .250 against him with a .298 wOBA in the majors, setting Smith up on the strong side of the splits.
I love the odds we're getting on Smith this Saturday night. He didn't get in on the home run parade on the Fourth of July, but he's been hitting the ball so well lately that I think he has a good shot to get a dinger on Saturday night.
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Mickey Moniak OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let's finish our home run props picks for this Saturday at Coors Field, which is almost always a great environment to target for power. The White Sox and Rockies have been two of the least impressive offenses in the majors this year, but they still have a few players who make sense for home run props this Saturday.
My favorite play is lefty Mickey Moniak, who has been surging lately for the Rockies and comes at favorable odds for a player in action at elevation.
Moniak has 12 homers on the season, and seven of those have come in his last 18 games, including this rocket against the Astros earlier this week.
Mickey Moniak - Colorado Rockies (12)
pic.twitter.com/ehijBk8Eqi— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) July 3, 2025
Moniak has gone 19-for-55 (.345) over those 18 games with four doubles, a triple, and seven home runs. Seven of his 12 homers on the year have come at Coors Field, and 11 of them have come against right-handed pitching.
Righty Jonathan Cannon starts for the White Sox. While he has one of the best names in the majors for a pitcher, he hasn't quite backed it up with his play this season.
Cannon has allowed 11 homers in his 13 games this season with a 45.3% hard-hit rate against him, a 4.59 ERA, and a 4.85 FIP. He has given up more than half of those home runs to left-handed batters, who have hit .271 with a .356 wOBA against him. Eight of his 11 homers allowed left the yard when he was pitching on the road, where he has a 5.16 ERA and 5.11 FIP.
Moniak was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft and has taken a while and multiple teams to find his spot to settle in, but he looks like he may just be a very late bloomer who needed the rarified air of Coors Field to truly blossom. Given the matchup on Saturday in Denver, I like his chances to get another blast out of Coors.
Good luck if you are tailing these bets today, and remember to always bet responsibly! Thanks for reading and for making RotoBaller your one-stop shop for all things baseball!
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