AL-Only Draft Sleepers For 2023 Fantasy Baseball

March 15, 2023

Sleepers and late-round draft targets for AL-only fantasy baseball leagues. Pranav Uppalapati identifies American League players who could breakout in 2023.

The “Only” league is one of the more challenging fantasy baseball formats. The format forces players to reach into the depths of AL rosters to create the best team possible.

The only problem with the “Only” league format? It is extremely difficult. With such a limited player pool, the drafts are incredibly important. If you make a mistake during the draft, you put yourself in a dangerous position; a position where you’ll have to find out who the backup CF for the Rocket City Trash Pandas is to survive (if you were wondering, the answer is BJ Boyd).

I’m mostly joking, but “Only” fantasy baseball leagues really do require dedication and heavy research, a lot of things most people just don’t have the time for. But guess who has time for such things, me! There are a couple of diamonds in the rough that could help you on your quest to win your AL-only league. The NL sleepers will be coming soon so check back soon if you’re also doing an NL-only league.

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Reese McGuire, C, Boston Red Sox

Most MLB fans know Reese McGuire from an unsavory off-the-field incident (I dare not speak of it), but I assure you he is worth drafting at the catcher position.

With Connor Wong out, Reese McGuire is the Red Sox’s primary catcher. McGuire was brought to Boston at last year’s trade deadline. Upon his arrival, he quickly cemented himself as the team’s best catcher (although there wasn’t much competition for that title). In 36 games with the Red Sox, McGuire slashed .337/.377/.500 with three HRs.

Don’t expect McGuire to hit .337 over a full season, but he’s still a great option if you couldn’t snag one of the sexier options at catcher.

Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox

I promise this list isn’t just Red Sox players.

The Red Sox’s top non-Mayer prospect debuted at the major league level last September. With just that month, Casas has already been penciled in as the Sox’s starting 1B.

In 27 games last season, Casas batted an unusual .197/.358/.408 with five HRs. Casas also had a mindblowing walk rate of 20% – a number that would’ve put him first in the league for walk rate if he had enough at-bats to qualify. An odd statistical output for an equally odd man.

Triston Casas sun bathing on the field before he makes his MLB debut today. pic.twitter.com/87Kv310Tsk

— Baseball Dugout (@baseballdugout_) September 4, 2022

For a hitter who is guaranteed to get playing time, plays in an offense with a bunch of guys with high OBPs, is one of the league’s best power-hitting prospects, and is a possessor of all-world plate discipline, Casas is still insanely cheap.

Enmanuel Valdez, 2B, Boston Red Sox

I am so sorry. I really am. I promise you, this was not intentional.

I covered Valdez and his potential for a breakout a couple of days ago (see that here), so I’ll give some quick updates on Valdez.

With an assortment of injuries plaguing their middle infield, the Red Sox came into Spring training looking for one of their minor-league middle infielders to step up. Prospects David Hamilton and Ceddanne Rafaela were both optioned to the minors, leaving Enmanuel Valdez as the only option left. It is starting to look like Valdez has the chance to be the Opening Day starter at 2B as Adalberto Mondesi and Trevor Story are out for the near future.

As mentioned, if guys get hurt in MLB camp Wed or later, they can't be optioned. Plus MiLB games start Wed. So, these.

The noteworthy part IMO is Enmanuel Valdez & Chris Murphy still up. Former maybe getting one last game, but Murphy, today's SP, not going down is weird to me. https://t.co/OpEPSt1xnh

— Chris Hatfield (@SPChrisHatfield) March 13, 2023

With rave reviews from Alex Cora and Rafael Devers, Valdez could be here to stay.

Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers’ prospect made his long-awaited debut last season. In 26 games, Jung batted .204/.235/.418 with five homers. While not the output many had hoped for, Jung is still a talented player who could end up as one of the best 3B in the AL.

Of course, the most important element in drafting in “Only” leagues is picking guys with regular playing time. Well, Jung’s name is right at the top of that Texas depth chart. There is little depth at that spot in the Rangers’ system, giving Jung everyday player status for the future.

Now fully recovered from the shoulder injury that delayed his debut, the third baseman looks to cement his future with the Texas Rangers. In Spring training, Jung has a 1.058 OPS with two HRs in just 28 at-bats. Most of Jung’s 2023 projections have him as a 20-HR bat. If he was to become a 20-HR bat, it would definitely bump him up a tier and put him in the same conversation as guys like Eugenio Suarez.

Riley Greene, OF, Detroit Tigers

It was a disappointing debut season for the former top prospect, but maybe something was wrong with the air in Detroit. The Tigers were one of the most exciting teams in the league going into the 2022 season, but they winded up finishing only one game above the last-place Royals. But enough about that, there is still hope for Riley Greene.

In 2022, Greene batted .253/.321/.362 with just five HRs in 93 games. That is a startling lack of power output when you consider Greene is in the 82nd percentile for max exit velocity and the 77th percentile for hard-hit rate. That phenomenon can be explained by his low launch angle and 56.8% ground ball rate.

Greene seems to be in the process of fixing that. He has a .857 OPS in 28 Spring training at-bats. His Spring training tape also just looks a lot better than his 2022 game tape.

This swing is way too good not to play. Few players I’m more bullish on taking a massive leap this year than Riley Greene
pic.twitter.com/uIoxrcpAJ7

— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) March 3, 2023

ATC predicts 13 HRs and a 2.7 WAR season for Greene in 2023. With those projections expecting 136 games played, you can look for the outfielder to slightly overperform those projections. Greene’s stellar defense will keep him on the field at all times, so bank on his encouraging Spring training and prospect prestige.

Chas McCormick, OF, Houston Astros

World Champion Chas McCormick has not been getting his dues, but that changes today.

McCormick was an essential and underrated piece to the Astros' 2022 championship run. In 119 games, McCormick batted .245/.332/.407 with 14 HRs. He paired that with excellent defense (seven OAA) and a walk rate of 11.3% (87th percentile of the league).

Despite competition from Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubon, McCormick is still expected to be the Astros' starting centerfielder. And with a dangerous group of offensive hitters surrounding him, he could be a boon for you in the runs category.

Brayan Bello, SP, Boston Red Sox

Boston’s top pitching prospect made his debut last season to add some reinforcement to a beleaguered Red Sox starting pitching corps. In 11 starts last season, Bello went 2-8 with a 4.71 ERA.

While his debut could’ve looked better on paper, it’d be wise not to place too much blame on Bello. He had one of the most unlucky pitching seasons in recent memory.

Bello had nearly a full point difference between his ERA and expected ERA. The pitcher also held an insane .404 BABIP. Bello’s luck started to turn around in September as he put up an ERA of 2.59. He should make waves in the 2023 season.

Reid Detmers, SP, Los Angeles Angels

It was a tale of two halves in 2022 for former Rocket City Trash Panda Reid Detmers.

In the first half of the 2022 season, Detmers put up an ERA of 4.11, despite having an opponent batting average of just .199. He struggled so heavily in the first half because he surrendered 11 home runs.

But Detmers seriously turned things around after the All-Star break with a 1.13 ERA month in July and a 2.91 ERA in August. However, he regressed in September and October, with an ERA of 4.97 in four starts. Detmers struggled that month because his oBA was .282.

The Angel is clearly capable of having a low opponent batting average, while also keeping the home runs down. If he can replicate the month of July, Detmers can be one of the AL’s best pitchers.

Michael King, RP, New York Yankees

Michael King is second-in-line to the illustrious Yankees closing job, and with a Clay Holmes falter, he may get there very soon.

As the named set-up pitcher in the extremely talented Yankees bullpen, King is an extremely talented and productive reliever himself. In 2022, he finished 6-3 with a 2.44 SIERA and 16 holds – all while striking out nearly a third of the batters he faced.

I covered Clay Holmes and his concerning outlook for the 2023 season a couple of weeks ago (see that here), and it has only gotten worse. In three games of Spring training, Holmes has looked shaky, allowing two hits and a run in a recent game against the Phillies.

If Holmes falters again this season, the contending Yankees will likely waste no time in naming King the closer. With considerable experience in high-leverage situations, King will be lights-out in a closer role.

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