NFL Rookie Spotlight - Zach Wilson

July 30, 2021

New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson was a first-round pick in this year's NFL draft after his breakout junior season at BYU. Hayden Epinette assesses Wilson's fantasy value in redraft leagues for 2021.

The New York Jets have struggled to find quality quarterback play since Hall of Famer Joe Namath's legendary career in the Big Apple. This year, the franchise took another swing at the position by taking BYU passer Zach Wilson with the second overall pick in this April's draft.

With a new coaching staff, a revamped receiving room, and a fresh new quarterback with an abundance of personality, Jets fans are feeling optimistic for the first time since, well, 2018 when the team drafted Sam Darnold out of USC. The team will have another chance at reversing its downward trend, however, and Wilson is the main reason why.

While Wilson will almost certainly be starting under center in Week 1, should he be starting for your fantasy team? Should he even be riding your bench? Let's take a look at his college production and his overall outlook for 2021 to make a determination.

College Production

After his freshman and sophomore seasons, Wilson was not considered to be anywhere near a first-round draft prospect, especially after his 11-touchdown, nine-interception campaign in 2019. However, Wilson was the breakout star of 2020, elevating his play to a completely new level. His 3,692 passing yards and 33 touchdowns were both easily career highs, and he cut his interception total to just three in 12 starts. After such a dominant season at BYU, it's no surprise he went as early in the draft as he did. 

While Wilson's counting stats were extremely impressive, his efficiency was equally so. His passer rating of 196.4 was second among all qualifying passers, behind only fellow first-round pick Mac Jones. Wilson's 11.0 yards per pass attempt ranked third in the country, further illustrating his exceptional abilities. No other quarterback in the FBS had a better touchdown-to-interception ratio than Wilson.

Even though his passing garners most of the attention, Wilson is an extremely capable scrambler as well. His 10 rushing touchdowns in 2020 tied for third among quarterbacks. Moreover, he has demonstrated an impressive capacity to evade the pass rush to either buy time to throw or take off and run. Wilson's elusiveness inside and outside of the pocket, as well as his charisma, has led some observers to compare him to Cleveland starter Baker Mayfield.

Utes can’t bring down BYU’s Zach Wilson. His 26-yard run sets up a FG to cut Utah’s lead 9-6. #GoCougs #BYUFOOTBALL #BYUvsUtah #HolyWar @byuROC pic.twitter.com/UfY3ZKLmPB

— Fan Insider (@FanInsider_) August 30, 2019

Some questions linger about if Wilson can replicate his performance from 2020, as he was a bit of a one-hit-wonder in college. Nonetheless, what we saw last season is enough to know that he is capable of playing at a very high level.

2021 Fantasy Outlook

Zach Wilson will ideally provide relief at the quarterback position for a squad that has really struggled at that spot as of late. In 2020, starter Sam Darnold threw for just 2,208 yards in 12 starts, and his nine touchdowns were equally paltry. There is really nowhere to go but up from there, and given Wilson's excellent production at BYU, a significant jump would be unsurprising. We probably shouldn't consider the 2020 Jets' poor passing performance as much of a reason to avoid Wilson, as there is a new coaching staff in town that will work to design an offense to his strengths. First-time head coach Robert Saleh will work with Wilson to reinvent a perenially ineffective offensive unit.

Furthermore, with Darnold now in Carolina, there is simply no competition to prevent Wilson from being the Week 1 starter. Even last year's backup, Joe Flacco, will play for the Eagles in 2o21. There is simply no chance that the team rolls with untested youngster James Morgan under center, so Wilson will undoubtedly start all 17 games barring injury, unlike fellow rookies Trey Lance and Mac Jones.

New York also features a new-look crew of wideouts that should facilitate Wilson's development. The front office brought in coveted free agent Corey Davis from Tennessee; Davis made 65 catches for 984 yards last season, and both figures would have led the Jets. New York also drafted Elijah Moore out of Ole Miss in the second round this spring. Moore consistently beat SEC defensive backs last season, accumulating 86 catches and 1,193 yards in just eight games. Slot receiver Jamison Crowder returns to the team, as does second-year receiver Denzel Mims, who flashed his skills in an injury-shortened 2020 campaign. The loss of Breshad Perriman should have a minimal impact on the efficiency of this passing game.

Of course, despite all of this positive talk, managers should exercise some caution with Wilson this season. Quarterbacks rarely step in and play at a Pro Bowl level immediately; Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are outliers. There is a great deal of uncertainty with how this offense will perform given all of the new parts. While the Jets' passing attack should be improved, that is a very low bar to clear.

The bottom line is that Wilson probably is worth just a late-round flier outside of Superflex/2QB leagues. If he does have an excellent rookie season, you will likely be able to acquire him on waivers early on in other formats. While he could push for a top-15 QB finish if things break right, the more likely outcome is that he is in the 20-25 range. Dynasty managers should consider him as the QB4 among rookies, simply because Lance and Justin Fields were drafted into much more favorable long-term landing spots.

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