RotoBaller's 2020-21 Fantasy Basketball Expert Draft: Analysis

December 20, 2020

Justin Carter recaps RotoBaller's 2020-21 fantasy basketball expert draft, looking at key takeaways that can help fantasy managers find sleepers in their own fantasy basketball drafts.

Last night, the RotoBaller writers got together and had our annual draft, so today I'm here to offer our readers some insights into the draft.

Some key features of our draft: We've got a 12-team, H2H 9-Cat league on Yahoo. And, uhh, I guess that's really all the main things you need to know. We don't have anything weird in our settings because we want our draft to best reflect what most of our readers are playing.

Anyway, let’s dive into the results!

RotoBaller Writers Expert Draft Board

Let's start by looking at the results of the draft, so you can get a sense of what our draft board looked like.

Let's Talk About That First Round

Things got wild right from the start in our draft, as James Harden -- the No. 1 ranked player in our site rankings -- fell to seventh.

I think that really reflects where we are right now as a community in terms of viewing Harden. Yes, he's an elite player who can lead the league in scoring, but he's also in such a weird space at the moment. He's reported to the Rockets, but he clearly want traded, and you have to wonder how that impacts his availability once the season gets here. If he plays a full season -- whether in Houston or somewhere else -- then he's the steal of our draft and the steal of any draft where he falls past third.

But even beyond Harden, the first round had plenty of surprises.

The first three players taken aren't a huge surprise, even if the order of them might be -- Giannis, who is fifth in our rankings, going at two over our third ranked player, Luka Doncic. But look, those small little fluctuations among players that are ranked so closely together aren't the biggest deal, as individual strategies will impact who takes who.

The bigger surprises in the first round are that Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James went earlier than the rankings suggest. Leonard at five -- he's 11th in our rankings -- was the bigger surprise, and it suggests that at least one person was willing to make the bet on talent instead of going with the conventional wisdom that suggests concerns about Leonard sitting out games for rest should push him to the end of the first round. If you're confident in the rest of your team and can weather those games without Leonard, this is a fine pick.

All in all, only one player went in the first round of our draft that wasn't ranked in the top 12 in our rankings: Kevin Durant, who was drafted 11th and is ranked 16th due to our concerns about how he'll look post-Achilles.

Players We Reached On

Let's look at some players who were drafted a decent bit ahead of where they're ranked in our consensus rankings.

Jusuf Nurkic - C, Portland Trail Blazers
Ranking: 41, Drafted: 28

Maybe chalk this up to the fact that we all needed centers, since the Yahoo default setting involves starting two centers. Nurkic is a fine pick and the injury that limited him to eight regular season games last year is in the past. He might be capped around 15 points per game with this team adding some offense this offseason with Enes Kanter and Robert Covington, but overall, reaching a little for Nurkic when you need a center isn't a big deal.

Davis Bertans - F, Washington Wizards
Ranking: 81, Drafted: 62

This was one of those "WHOA" moments during the draft, as everyone felt like this was a bit of a reach, and comparing it to our rankings proves that. Bertans shot 42.4 percent from three on 8.7 attempts per game last year, so this isn't a bad pick, but maybe it suggests that you might need to pay a bit of a premium for elite shooting.

Andrew Wiggins - G/F, Golden State Warriors
Ranking: 91, Drafted: 66

Wiggins is probably a little undervalued in our rankings, as he has a good chance of being a 20-plus point per game scorer again with Klay Thompson out for the year, but his efficiency issues and mediocre free throw shooting make him a risky fantasy pick who may struggle to live up to this draft position.

Coby White - G, Chicago Bulls
Ranking: 104, Drafted: 63

Well, now we're talking "projection!" White has had a nice preseason so far and should be in line for some nice progression in his second NBA season, but you still have to worry about his 39.4/35.4/79.1 shooting split last year and his 2.5 assists per game. I think taking White top 75 could potentially pay off, but he might be more hype than production, and I'm not sure I'm the kind of fantasy manager who would take this risk when guys like Lonzo Ball, Marcus Smart, and even Collin Sexton -- another risky young player, but one who feels like a safer bet to post strong numbers -- still on the board.

Tyler Herro - G, Miami Heat
Ranking: 111, Drafted: 77

Everyone loves Tyler Herro, but he probably won't give you enough in assists, rebounds, steals, or blocks for me to take him too high, though I get being higher on him if I was punting something like assists and needed a guard who could score and make threes. But even then, 77th felt high. But hey -- guys get hyped in every draft, and sometimes that hype pays off. (And other times it doesn't!)

Who Did We Undervalue?

So, which players did we draft pretty a good bit later than our site rankings suggest we should have taken them?

Russell Westbrook - G, Washington Wizards
Ranking: 25, Drafted: 32

Not a huge undervalue here, but it sure feels like Westbrook now that he's in Washington and freed from playing beside James Harden is bound for something resembling a vintage Westbrook season. Remember: he's a year removed from averaging a triple double, and while his three-point shooting is bad and he turns the ball over too much, he can still be a valuable contributor, especially if you're punting on threes.

Jonas Valanciunas - C, Memphis Grizzlies
Ranking: 49, Drafted: 60

For there being a run on centers, Valanciunas falling to 60th feels like a real steal. Probably going under the radar because he plays beside Jaren Jackson Jr. (who will miss the beginning of the season), Valanciunas averaged a career high in threes per game last year while scoring 14.9 points and grabbing a career best 11.3 boards per game. He's a solid, well-rounded center who you should be able to get at a bit of a discount in your drafts.

Jaren Jackson Jr. - F/C, Memphis Grizzlies
Ranking: 64, Drafted: 80

Recovering from knee surgery will likely push Jackson's debut into January, but after a second season in which he averaged 17.4 points, 1.6 blocks, and 2.5 threes per contest, the sky's the limit for Jackson...except for the fact he only grabbed 4.6 rebounds per game. But he does so much else well that even with the injury concerns, he's a top 75 pick.

Danilo Gallinari - F, Atlanta Hawks
Ranking: 67, Drafted: 84

Gallinari averaged 18.7 points and 5.2 rebounds per game last year, shooting 40.5 percent from three on 7.1 attempts per game. He's also a real free throw shooting stud, shooting 89.3 percent or better for four consecutive seasons. His move to Atlanta has hurt his value as he'll have more competition for usage, but I think that's caused some people to be too far out on him.

Kemba Walker - G, Boston Celtics
Ranking: 66, Drafted: 97

Walker will be out until at least January, but I still think his upside means he shouldn't have fallen down to 97th in this draft. A healthy Walker averaged 20.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 0.9 steals per game last year, shooting 38.1 percent from three and 86.4 percent from the free throw line. Sure, maybe his injury issues linger on past the original time frame, but the upside here is too high for him to fall past, what...80th, maybe? I should have drafted him at 85 over Devonte' Graham, except I had Graham ranked 75th in my rankings and couldn't resist the value there.

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