NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 2) - Targets and Avoids

September 19, 2020

Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 2 of the NFL season and your 2020 survivor leagues.

A full Sunday slate of football, watching the Red Zone channel, and not having to change the channel finally felt like a return to normalcy. What felt even more normal was Phillip Rivers throwing a late-game interception, the Lions losing in heartbreaking fashion, the Broncos losing yet another close one, and Baker Mayfield looking lost.

My best bets against the spread went 2-1 but my survivor picks went 1-2 (Colts lost to Titans, Lions lost to Bears, and Steelers beat Giants). The Colts held a 7-0 lead with the ball in the red zone late in the first. They proceeded to have fourth-and-one from the three when Nyheim Hines got stuffed. Right then and there, Colts backer knew we were in trouble. I even in-gamed Indy -13.5 in the red zone so that was a loser right there. As for the Lions, this is the second year in a row where the Lions held a lead of 17 points or more in the fourth quarter to then blow it (they tied the Cardinals last year.) Then for D'Andre Swift to drop the ball was nauseating. Even more sickening, I have Detroit to win division, make playoffs, and over their win total.

The Colts losing knocked 25 percent of survivor entrants out of my pool. The Eagles knocked out anther nine. Favorites went 7-6-1 against the spread, 9-5 straight up with underdogs winning five games outright. Two games were pick 'em. This week we have another full slate kicking off with the Bengals and Browns Thursday night.

Survivor League Week 2

Teams favored by seven or more in Week 2 per The Action Network (home team in caps); TITANS -9.5 vs. Jaguars, BUCS -9 vs. Panthers, 49ers -7 @ JETS, CHIEFS -8.5 @ Chargers. There are several games where the line is around six.

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. That can be found at the bottom of the column.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 2

49ers -7 @ JETS

I'm usually hesitant about taking west coast teams traveling east for a 1 PM ET game. Records for West Coast teams from 2003 to 2018 were 80-133 (37.6%) straight up, a 37.6% win percentage. But this is more how about how putrid the Jets are than the Niners having to travel east. As a Jets fan, I couldn't even watch their game against the Bills. This was the Jets drive summary in the first half Sunday.

Just embarrassing. The 49ers, like the Bills, will jump all over the Jets early. The 49ers Defense seemingly struggles with mobile quarterbacks, but Sam Darnold is not a dual-threat. The Jets Defense looked awful and the Niners have more weapons than the Bills do.

49ers 24 - Jets 13

STEELERS -6 vs. Broncos

As I ignore the trend of a west coast team coming east, I now veer to it. But this one I like more because Denver played in the last game of the week, the 10 p.m. Monday game and then have to travel to Pittsburgh for an early 1 p.m. start Sunday. Pittsburgh also played Monday night but it was the early game and it was in New Jersey, not that far from Pittsburgh.

The Steelers Defense, as expected, stifled Daniel Jones and the Giants offense. The Steelers offense picked it up as the game went along. Meanwhile the Broncos looked just how they did last season. Good defense, an offense that doesn't take too many chances, and then losing with less than 30 seconds left. Drew Lock did not face too many good defenses last season, but Pittsburgh has one of the best.

Steelers 27 - Broncos 14

Chiefs -8.5 @ Chargers

Having no fans this year is actually beneficial to the Chargers because the opposing teams fans can't take over the stadium. Anyway, this is simple; the Chargers offense won't be able to keep pace with Kansas City's. Tyrod Taylor is a solid quarterback but you need around 30 points to beat the Chiefs. Since Taylor became a starting quarterback in 2015 for Buffalo, and several games with Cleveland, he's started 47 games with their team scoring 30+ points 12 times.

Chiefs 35 - Chargers 17

TITANS -9 vs. Jaguars

One week is not going to change my perspective on the Jaguars season outlook. I wasn't the biggest fan of Tennessee's to begin with, but they got the win Monday night and that's what matters. They have a lot more talent than the Jaguars and are better coached. This line is too high though.

Titans 24 - Jaguars 17

CARDINALS -6.5 vs. Washington

This feels like letdown game written all over it for Arizona. They're off a huge win against the Super Bowl runner-up. Washington is also off a great come-from-behind win where they scored the final 27 points winning 27-17. The Football Team looks like a vintage Ron Rivera team; run the ball, play good defense, and be extremely physical. But the Cardinals just have one too many weapons with DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Kenyan Drake, and then Kyler Murray's running ability too.

Cardinals 28 - Washington 19

BEARS -6 vs. Giants

Taking the Bears gives me the jitters, but their defense should be able to do enough to keep the Giants under 17 points. If Mitchell Trubisky can get this offense to score more than 20, they should win.

Bears 21 - Giants 16

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid 

BUCS -8 vs. Panthers

I'm not sure what warrants this line being eight. The Panthers were moving the ball Sunday. Teddy Bridgewater went 22-34 for 270 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. Christian McCaffrey was his usual self running for 96 yards and two touchdowns. They scored 30 points narrowly losing to the Raiders.

The Bucs did not look in sync and need more time to gel. After they scored the first touchdown Sunday, the Saints outscored them 34-16. You're paying a Tom Brady premium here if you bet Tampa.

Panthers 31 - Bucs 30

BROWNS -6 vs. Bengals

I'm not sure how this line isn't three. Just from Week 1, these teams looked very even. I'd highly advise not put tingyour survivor pool life into the hands of Baker Mayfield.

Bengals 16 - Browns 14

Best Bets for Week 2

• Steelers -6.5 vs.  Broncos - As discussed above, I love the angle of Denver having to travel East after a late Monday night game that ended in a crushing loss.
• 49ers -7 @ Jets - San Fran has too much talent for the Jets.
• Panthers +9 @ Bucs - Just way way way too many points for a solid Carolina team.

Running Totals

• Last week: 2-1
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

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