Dynasty Team Analysis - Indianapolis Colts

Here at RotoBaller, we are examining all 32 teams in our offseason Dynasty Team outlook series. We will discuss every franchise leading up to the NFL Draft, then review them again after the conclusion of free agency and the draft. Including which players you should trust, and which players should you avoid. We will also provide our recommendations on sleepers and busts, while exploring every critical position.

That includes Indianapolis, which stumbled to an unsightly 4-12 record in 2017. During a season that was dismantled by an overmatched head coach, inadequate talent at numerous positions, and endless ambiguity regarding the health of Andrew Luck. As the 2018 offseason unfolds, the Colts must address an abundance of holes on both sides of the ball, while still facing uncertainty concerning Luck. But despite the dearth of positives for this franchise, Indianapolis can secure a much needed difference maker with the sixth overall pick in the draft. General Manager Chris Ballard also expedited the rebuilding process by trading down three spots in Round 1 in exchange for three additional picks. As a result, he is now in possession of nine selections, and nearly $70 million in available cap space, which supplies a legitimate opportunity to rebuild his highly deficient roster.

Amid the great uncertainty that exists concerning a team that is largely devoid of talent, there are enough components currently in place to project which players will perform integral roles, and which areas will be upgraded as the regular season approaches.

Indianapolis Colts Dynasty Outlook

Team Record: 4-12 (4^th, AFC South)

Fantasy Leaders

QB: Jacoby Brissett – 206.0 (QB20)
RB: Frank Gore – 173.6 (RB19)
WR: T.Y. Hilton – 175.6 (WR27)
TE: Jack Doyle - 169.0 (TE7)
IDP: Matthias Farley - 170.1 (S9)

Quarterback

Luck did not miss a game during his first three seasons (2012-2014), and the numbers that he generated during that span vaulted him into the top tier among all signal callers. He produced nearly 13,000 yards and 86 touchdowns through the air, which were supplemented with 905 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground. That included the career best production that he attained in 2014 (4,761 yards/40 touchdowns), which enabled him to finish as the QB2 with an astronomical 351 fantasy points.

Unfortunately, he has only played in 22 games during the last three seasons. As three separate injuries limited him to just seven contests in 2015, while his lingering shoulder issue kept him sidelined throughout all of 2017.

While the Colts refused to discount the possibility that Luck could reemerge under center until early November, former Patriot Jacoby Brissett functioned as the starter during the team’s final 15 games. After being traded to the Colts in early September, the former Patriot displayed promise during his trial-by-fire learning process. Even though his 13:7 touchdown to interception ratio was undistinguished, he did generate 260 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Brissett was also operating without a surplus of dynamic talent, and is capable of producing more impressive results as he gains experience.

But that will not occur if Luck is reestablished as the starter. He is expected to join the team's offseason workouts in April, which should bolster optimism that he will be guiding the offense in Week 1. However, doubt and apprehension by owners is  understandable, after a series of optimistic statements from Colts ownership and management over the past few seasons have often been followed by discouraging setbacks.

Running Back

Only four teams compiled a worse YPC average than the Colts last season (3.7), as Indianapolis ranked 22^nd overall (103.8 YPG). Frank Gore led the rushing attack with 961 yards, but averaged just 53 YPG from Weeks 1-13, before registering his only two 100-yard performances of the year. He has constructed an exceptional career since entering the league in 2005, and his 14,026 career yards leave him on the cusp of becoming the NFL’s fourth all-time rusher. But he turns 35 in May, has not averaged 4.0 YPC since 2014, and no longer resides on Indy’s roster.

Marlon Mack should become the recipient of an expanded role after playing on 30% of the offensive snaps as a rookie. He  demonstrated the ability to explode for big plays by tying for 11^th among all backs with six runs of 20+ yards. But he also registered  negative yardage during his attempts to produce big plays, and averaged only 3.8 YPC. However, Mack's explosiveness should provide Frank Reich and his offensive staff with sufficient incentive to rotate him with another back who will eventually be added.

If Saquon Barkley is still available when the Colts are on the clock, there is certainly potential for Ballard to obtain his game-breaking talent. This would immediately alter the equation, as Barkley would transform the rushing attack, while forcing defensive units to deploy more resources toward contending with the threat of a formidable ground game. But even though the concept of seizing Barkley would be enticing, he may not be available when the Colts make their first selection.

Wide Receiver

From 2014-2016 T.Y. Hilton averaged 1,306 yards and 81 receptions. In 2016 alone, he also led the NFL in receiving yards (1,448), and paced the league with 28 catches of 20+. But Luck’s absence had a dramatic effect on his output, as he delivered his lowest reception and yardage totals since 2012 (57/966). His four touchdowns were also the lowest in five seasons, as his statistical plunge was achieved through a mixture of radically fluctuating numbers. From Weeks 3-17 he surpassed 150 yards three times, but failed to exceed 30 yards in eight of the other 11 contests.

While the massive yardage totals that he provided in those highly productive outings were beneficial to owners, the meager results that he manufactured with far more frequency created consternation about starting him. The level of trust will return as he supplies numbers that resemble his pre-2017 production. Providing that Luck is the signal-caller who is launching the throws in his direction.

The drop-off in value at this position beyond Hilton is currently enormous. Donte Moncrief finished second among Colt receivers last season with forgettable numbers (26 receptions/391 yards/two touchdowns), despite possessing the physical tools to achieve output that is substantially better. But Moncrief has migrated southward to division rival Jacksonville, which temporarily nudges Chester Rogers into the team's WR2 slot. However, additional receiving weapons should be added during the upcoming weeks to compete with Rogers and former Redskin Ryan Grant for snaps.

Tight End

With Luck sidelined, and Hilton frequently irrelevant, Jack Doyle became 2017’s most reliable fantasy option within a Colt offense that ranked an anemic 31^st overall. He became the first tight end to lead Indianapolis in receptions since Dallas Clark (2009), and his career high 80 catches were second only to Travis Kelce at his position. Erik Swoope’s knee injury sidelined him for the entire year, which left Doyle without any discernible competition for targets. As a result, Doyle performed on 88% of the team’s offensive snaps, while the Colts infrequently deployed a cluster of backups that dwelled far beyond the fantasy radar. 

That enabled Doyle to function as a legitimate starter at a position that presented nightmarish challenges for most owners throughout the year. Newly-signed Eric Ebron will pilfer some of those opportunities this season, although it is conceivable that both tight ends will be allotted enough targets to maintain value within Reich's offense. During his tenure as an offensive coordinator, his primary tight ends averaged 100 targets, while finishing either second or third on their teams in that category. In 2016/2017, Zach Ertz accomplished this while averaging 72% of the offensive snaps, even though Brent Celek and Trey Burton combined for 68% of the snaps during those two seasons.

If Reich allocates the same level of usage for Doyle and Ebron, then Doyle will remain an appealing TE1 option. Even if he does not reach his 2017 target total (108). That would benefit owners who want to avoid the arduous task of locating streaming options, but are unwilling to invest an early round pick on Rob Gronkowski, Zach Ertz, or Kelce.

IDP

While the Indianapolis offense currently delivers a limited number of enticing players for owners, the defense contains even fewer tangible options. This highly challenged unit ranked just 30^th, while being gashed for 367 YPG. The Colts also surrendered an alarming 25 points per game, and an extensive search is required simply to locate performers that are worthy of consideration for owners in IDP leagues.

Rashaan Melvin had been the team's most proficient cornerback, and would have provided a much-needed building block if he had returned. However, he was lost to Oakland during free agency. Among the most notable returnees are inside linebacker Antonio Morrison, who led the team with 108 tackles. Strong safety Matthias Farley generated the most fantasy points, while  Malik Hooker displayed promise at free safety before suffering a torn ACL and MCL in Week 7.

The pass rush is in desperate need of an upgrade, while the linebacker and cornerback positions also require attention. However, that unfavorable outlook should improve as Ballard addresses the unit’s most critical shortcomings. That could include securing Bradley Chubb with the sixth overall pick. Which is the most plausible scenario if he is available at that point of Round 1.

Offseason Outlook

2018 Draft Picks: 1st Round (6), 2nd Round (36), 2^nd Round (37), 2^nd Round (49), 3rd Round (67), 4th Round (104), 5th Round (140), 6th Round (178), 7th Round (221)

The rampant shortage of talent on both sides of the ball presents Ballard with a gargantuan task. He has avoided pursuit of big name free agents beyond Ebron, although he fortified the opportunity for an impactful draft by expanding his arsenal to nine selections. Some of those picks will be utilized toward strengthening a defense that requires urgent attention at every level. The running back and wide receiver positions both could use an infusion of gifted performers, while drafting Quenton Nelson with the initial selection would  provide a vital boost to the offensive line. Last year’s underwhelming unit surrendered 182 pressures according to Pro Football Focus - who also ranked them just 25^th overall. Improving this deficiency would greatly benefit Luck, whose status remains the predominant factor in determining what level of success will be attained by the Colts this season.

His sustained presence would reinvigorate the team's attack and elevate both the relevance and production of its other primary components. Not only would Luck instantly provide owners with another QB1 for their lineups, but Mack or any new running back would benefit from a potent passing attack when attempting to locate space in opposing defenses. Hilton would also ascend back to borderline WR1 status, while Doyle and Ebron could provide owners with viable tight end options.

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