RADIO
I can't believe how fast this baseball season is flying by. It's nearly the mid-Summer classic and it still feels like just yesterday I was watching the Cubs take on team Japan in Spring Training. Anywho, let's get back to our winning ways tonight and kick off the weekend with a fatter pocket, money clip, wallet, etc etc. We've got a full slate on deck tonight and every team will be playing under the lights in the Main competition. That means more time can be spent lineup building and less time worrying about ownership percentages.
Before I get into the player selections, I like to point out a few Vegas lines of interest - particularly those that could be helpful when deciding who to stack and who to avoid. The teams with the highest implied run totals tonight are the Red Sox (6.1), Indians (5.8), Nationals (5.7), Diamondbacks (5.6) and the Rays at 5.3. After that there are a handful of others above five as well, indicating we've got some gas can pitchers on the bump tonight but lots of stacking options to choose from. As for moneyline favorites, the heaviest ones tonight are the Nationals (-250), Dodgers (-220), the Diamondbacks (-190) and the Rays (-185).
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 6/23/2017. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options, and of course, value plays. If you want to contact me, send me a message on Twitter at @kpLUCH
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Offensive Stacks
Boston Red Sox versus Alex Meyer
The Red Sox have a massive run total projection of 6.1, a number normally reserved for those playing in Coors Field. They take on Alex Meyer, who has been impressive for the better part of the year, but has also pitched in the very pitcher friendly stadium in Anaheim. Tonight, he takes on a powerful lineup in a very hitter friendly location at Fenway. My money is on the Sox getting the better of this matchup seeing as they have a number of hitters that profile very well and Meyer has seen his hard hit rate allowed increase, which makes me think hitters are starting to figure this guy out. The Red Sox players I'll have the most shares of tonight are Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez and Chris Young.
Tampa Bay Rays versus Ubaldo Jimenez
With high run projections galore, there are a lot of strong routes you could take tonight if you're deploying a stack or two in tournaments. I did want to point out a less obvious one that I think could go under the radar in Tampa Bay. They have a boom or bust offense, but when they strike, they can really do damage. Ubaldo Jimenez is pretty garbage at this point in his career. He strikes out very few batters (7.8 K/9), allows a ton of home runs (1.8 HR/9) and has allowed a hard hit rate and fly ball rate over 33% and over 40%, respectively, for the year. The Rays I have my eyes on are Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson, Steven Souza and Evan Longoria.
FanDuel & DraftKings DFS Pitchers
Chris Archer - SP, vs BAL (DK - $12,500, FD - $10,400)
Tonight is a really, really tough call on pitchers. It's not that there aren't any quality pitchers available, it's more so a problem of not having a clear idea of the (relative) elites are for tonight and the matchups each coming with some red flags. Overall, Archer is my favorite of the bunch. The red flag for him is that the Orioles can hit the ball out of the park, but they have been struggling, are without Chris Davis and do strikeout a ton - which mitigates the risk quite a bit and provides upside. Archer has always pitched better at home and overall this season, he boasts strong marks in 1.1 WHIP, 1.09 HR/9 and a really impressive 10.9 K/9. His Statcast data also paints a pretty nice picture, as he's been able to induce ground balls on nearly 50% of the contact he allows and his hard hit rate allowed is hovering around 30%.
Alex Wood - SP, vs COL (DK - $9,600, FD - $9,500)
If you're needing to save a little cash and don't mind rostering a pitcher taking on a team with a pretty strong wOBA against left-handed pitching, Wood is your guy this evening. I was initially staying away, thanks to Colorado's projected lineup owning a .340 wOBA split against southpaws, but they have the lowest overall run projection of the night. That low total combined with Wood's enticing numbers - 0.92 WHIP, 0.2 HR/9, and 10.7 K/9 - flipped me into a believer for Friday night.
Also Consider: Dinelson Lamet - SP, vs DET (DK - $6,200, FD - $7,500) - GPP only
FanDuel & DraftKings DFS Infielders
Alex Avila - C, at SDP (DF - $3,600, FD -$3,000)
If he hasn't become it already, Avila should be your cash game staple when he's in this price range and facing a right-handed pitcher, because the backstop is completely locked in. In 2017, he's posted an uber impressive .426 wOBA split against righties and he pairs that with some pretty serious power, as showcased by his .282 ISO. He enters this contest on quite a hot streak and a hard hit rate of 45% and a line drive rate of 37% over the past two weeks.
Eric Thames - 1B, at ATL (DK - $4,600, FD - $3,400)
As is normally the case, the first base position is crowded with tons of quality options and many of these hitters have been on quite the upswing - and their price tags have followed that rise in production. Curiously, however, Thames price has climbed only a little on FanDuel in the last 10 days and it has actually dropped in DraftKings. He has had little production in the Brewers most recent series, but Statcast data tells us that not only was he unlucky with his batted balls, but he's still crushing them, too, as he posted a 42% hard hit rate in that stretch. Tonight, Thames has a good matchup in Atlanta's sandbox stadium and his splits - .410 wOBA, .310 ISO - are some of the best in baseball.
Rougned Odor - 2B, at NYY (DK - $3,400, FD - $3,400)
Rougned Odor gets a date with the ever-struggling Masahiro Tanaka and I am here for it. By here for it, I mean I'll be playing plenty of Odor shares, especially with such a bargain-ish price. Left-handed hitters at Yankee Stadium are in an opportune spot, and Odor has excellent power splits against righties, particularly for this position with his .242 ISO ( a split 154 points higher than his mark against southpaws) and a .500 slugging percentage. Over the last three starts, Tanaka has allowed an ISO over .300, making this spot even more attractive for Odor and his Texas teammates.
Wilmer Flores - 3B, at SFG (DK - $2,600, FD - $2,600)
From a point per dollar perspective, I think Flores could end up being the most valuable player on the board tonight - at least among infielders. He's priced as an incredible bargain, despite the fact that he absolutely punishes left-handed pitching to the tune of a .441 wOBA and a .341 ISO this season. Flores also enters this game with some pretty good barrels in the month and a 32% hard hit rate over the past two weeks.
Francisco Lindor - SS, vs MIN (DK - $4,800, FD - $3,600)
Lindor may not have a ton of pop, but he checks off so many boxes for me. The talented young shortstop hits atop a very strong batting order, he has a solid wOBA split (.320) and most importantly for tonight's contests, he faces a pitcher that has been getting murdered in his past few appearances. I think he can surpass value tonight with a collection of hits, but it wouldn't surprise me if he punches out a home run tonight, as he profiles very well against Adalberto Mejia.
FanDuel & DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Nomar Mazara - OF, at NYY (DK - $4,100, FD - $3,500)
Mazara is a guy who should always be on your radar when he starts to heat up as he's a streaky hitter and can really catch fire. Luckily for you and me, his pricing hasn't caught up with his recent production. At this price point, I consider him a steal. He has a strong matchup, a park upgrade for lefties and his .347 wOBA and .197 splits are far better than his marks against lefties.
Andrew Benintendi - OF, vs LAA (DK - $4,300, FD - $3,500)
I mentioned above in my stacks how I am all in on this Boston outfield, and pricing considered, Benintendi is my favorite. He's not only more affordable than Betts (whom I also like), but he has better splits in the power department (.203 ISO) and I think he'll be less owned in tournaments, giving Benintendi backers some leverage.
Corey Dickerson - OF, vs BAL (DK - $4,700, FD - $4,100)
There are a number of outfielders worth paying up for tonight, but like the case with Benintendi, I think Dickerson is one of those in an ideal spot that could still go overlooked somehow. He has had a great year and his splits against right-handed pitching are very impressive - .372 wOBA, .261 ISO. In addition to that, he enters the game with a 40% hard hit rate over the past 15 days.
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